WP2 ACCESS Third Year Results

Transcription

1 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 WP2 ACCESS Third Year Results European Project supported within the Ocean of Tomorrow call of the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme

2 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 Ice conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route in the XX-XXI centuries Achievements of research activity during the 3 rd year: 1. Climate changes in the Arctic Seas during XX beginning of XXI centuries 2. Scenario of the most probable ice conditions formation before 2020 and later Sergey Frolov Arctic and Antarctic Research Insitute, St. Petersburg, Russia 3. R e c o m m e n d e d n a v i g a t i o n a l r o u t e s (economical and safety) in present climate conditions 4. Estimation of sea ice influence on the navigation efficiency in the Arctic Seas under the different scenarios of climate changes

3 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 Changes of ice area in the Arctic Seas in August during the period Тыс.км 2 Западные моря y = x Western Arctic Seas Тыс.км 2 Восточные моря Eastern Arctic Seas y = x climate and ice cover changes are characterized by negative trend with 60, 20 and 10 years fluctuations; - negative trend in the Western Seas (Barents and Kara) is more intensive than in the Eastern Seas (Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi), but in the Eastern Seas interannual variability is stronger; - the coldest period was observed in , while the warmest period - in ; - data processing showed decreasing the area of ice cover (by 20%), later starting of the date of stable ice growth (12 days delay), decrease of ice cover duration (by 40 days), decrease of fast ice thickness (about 10 cm) and fast ice area (by 4%) in the warm period comparatively with the cold period.

4 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 Forecast of summary ice area in the western and eastern Arctic Seas in XXI century in August, based on historical data and the AARI s modeling results S*10 3 km Western Arctic Seas a Years In th years of the XXI century sea ice area in summer will increase with culmination in in the Eastern Arctic seas and in 2035 in the Western Arctic seas. S*10 3 km Eastern Arctic Seas b The second maximum is expected approximately in Period of low ice extent is foreseen in th and at the end of the XXI century Years

5 4 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 ariants of navigation along the NSR in summer High-latitudinal transit routes 70 Ó 20 Ó 75 Ó 80 Ó 80 Ó 75 Ó 100 Ó 70 Ó Ó Ó Ó Ó 140 Variants of navigation along the NSR in winter Ó Ó 160 Ã ÛÚ ÓÎ Ï ÚÂ ËÍ Ó Ó ÓÒÍ Î ÓÌ ÒÓÍ Ó Ë ÓÚÌ È Ï ÛÚ 100 Ó Ó Ó 160 Ó 180 Ó high-latitudinal route along the continental slope the shortest high-latitudinal route

6 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 Conclusions The forecast scenario was developed in the AARI based on hystorical data and modeling results, showing that present warming period will replace by new cold period in nearest years. Intensification of using the NSR for transit navigation last years demonstrates profitability of regular cargo transportation from the Europe to the Asia and back. This is supported by enhanced cargo volume, application of flexible tariff policy and significant improving sea ice conditions along the navigational routes in summer. If processes of sea ice cover decreasing in warm period of the year during the next years continue, possibly duration of non-icebreaker navigation will increase and duration of transit navigation along the NSR with corresponded icebreaker assistance will increase up to half-year. However, stochastic nature of environmental parameters makes long-term climate changes forecast unreliable. Climate changes, tendency of increasing the cargo transportation along the NSR, increasing the periods of transit navigation, using the high-latitudinal routes predetermine necessity of maintaining present and building new icebreaker fleet. This will guarantee reliable and safe operations along the NSR.

7 Noice measurement by UPC offshore North-Greenland D2.45" Measuring, Modelling and Mitigating Noise Pollution in the Arctic " The objectives of the acoustic measurements during OATRC2013 (ODEN Arctic Technology Research Cruise 2013) were twofold: - to deploy two long-term sound recorders to be moored in the water column for at least 12 months to characterize the Arctic soundscape in the region, possibly detect marine mammals vocalizations and ice-breaking noise. - to deploy opportunistic sound buoys recorders along ODEN tracks, to record ambient noise, ice-breaking sound, propeller noise, as well as transient sounds produced on board by machinery, all of the above to better understand sound propagation in ice-covered waters. " " (! Location 4 (! (! (! (! Location 5 Location 2 Location 3 1"

8 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 D2.45" Measuring, Modelling and Mitigating Noise Pollution in the Arctic " " " Distance ODEN - buoy Tracks color coding based on time: ODEN (dashed), buoy (solid) 6000 Hydrophone angle Distance (m) Angle (degrees) Latitude (decimal degrees) Time (h) Longitude (decimal degrees) Time (h) Deployment August 28. Overview of ODEN and buoy tracks, their distance and headings. Colour encoding indicates time since deployment. 2"

9 Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ACCESS, Cambridge, March 2014 D2.45" Measuring, Modelling and Mitigating Noise Pollution in the Arctic " The ODEN-2013 cruise has provided acoustic recordings of ship-, ambient-, airgun- and " icebreaking noise. Additionally some marine mammal recordings were made. The engine noise of the ODEN-2013 was a good source when it was maintaining a constant angle with " respect to the hydrophone. Especially data from a distance of more than ca. a kilometer is expected to be suitable for propagation loss estimation. To improve the measurements in a future expedition the following major recommendations are made: 1. An acoustic source with a known source level should be used 2. The source should always be used at the same depth and position relative to the ship. 3. The position and depth of the hydrophone(s) should be maintained constant. 4. Ambient noise recordings will be improved if the equipment (engine, generator, sonar) on the ship can be switched off more often at different times of the day. 3"

10 ACCESS: Ship-Emissions, July local flights Imported Siberian BB emissions Oil/gas platform emissions ship corridor probing Fresh and aged ship emissions Industrial emissions Fresh ship emissions CH 4 emissions from wetlands

11 ACCESS Campaign 2012 Paper submitted to Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society on 28 Feb 2014: Imported Siberian BB emissions Quantifying emerging local anthropogenic emissions in the Arctic region: the ACCESS aircraft campaign experiment Roiger, A. 1, Thomas, J.-L. 2, Schlager, H. 1, Law, K. S. 2, Kim, J. 1, Schäfler, A. 1, Weinzierl, B. 1,3, Dahlkötter, F. 1, Krisch, Industrial I. 1*, Marelle, L. 2, Minikin, A. 1, Raut, J.-C. 2, Reiter, A. 1, Rose, M. 1, Scheibe, emissions M. 1, Stock, P. 1 Fresh, Baumann, R. 1, Bouarar, I. 2, Clerbaux, Fresh and C. 2 aged, George, M. 2, Onishi, T. 2, Flemming, ship emissions J. 4 ship emissions 1 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Oil/gas platform Germany 2 Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06; Université Versailles St-Quentin; emissions CH 4 emissions CNRS/ INSU, LATMOS-IPSL, Paris, France from wetlands 3 Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU), Meteorologisches Institut, München, Germany ship corridor 4 European probing Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Shinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom * now at: European Space Agency (ESA/ESTEC), Mission Science Division, Noordwijk, Netherlands

12 ACCESS WRF-Chem case study: setup WRF-Chem case study (10-12 July) : - 2x2km resolution, 65 vertical levels - Initial and boundary conditions from global models WRF-Chem domain (300 x 300 km) - Anthropogenic emissions from a global 0,1 x0,1 inventory, biogenic and ocean emissions calculated online - Ship emissions from a new high resolution real time inventory Marelle et al., in preparation,

13 High resolution ship emisssion inventory for WRF-Chem (Jalkanen and Johansson, FMI, 2013) 1x1km, 15 min resolution inventory Inventory built from AIS ship positioning data. - Takes into account engine/ fuel type, vessel speed, waves, wind. Here, ship emission injection height was calculated with a simple plume rise model. - Injection heights from 15m to 120m Marelle et al., in preparation,

14 WRF-Chem simulation results : trace gases 2012/07/11 Time series : In situ measurements compared with WRF-Chem results interpolated (4D) along flight tracks. (Plane height in black dotted line.) A moving average was applied to observations to compare to griddiluted modelled plumes. Marelle et al., in preparation,

15 ACCESS WP2 Meeting Cambridge, /04 HSVA N. Reimer European Project supported within the Ocean of Tomorrow call of the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme

16 Outline Introduction Task Traveling Time Prediction on NSR Task Fuel Consumption and Emission Task 2.2 Rules & Guidelines

17 Task Traveling Time Prediction on NSR? ice thickness chart

18 Task 2.4.2: Fuel Consumption and Emission route hull shape ice conditions engine / propeller resistanc e required power (P) attainable speed specific fuel consumption (sfc) travelling time (t) fuel amount = sfoc x P x t exhaust gas distribution amount of exhaust gas for each component

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