Klimaänderung. Robert Sausen Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen

Transcription

1 Klimaänderung Robert Sausen Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen Vorlesung WS 2018/19 LMU München

2 3. Beobachtungen: Ozeane

3 Contents of IPCC 2013 Working Group I: the Physical Science Basis

4 Contents of IPCC 2013 Working Group I: the Physical Science Basis

5 Statements in the Executive Summary Temperature and Heat Content Changes It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (above 700 m) has warmed from 1971 to 2010, and likely that it has warmed from the 1870s to

6 Ocean heat uptake pathways

7 Depth-averaged 0 to 700 m temperature trend for

8 Zonally averaged temperature trends for with zonally averaged mean temperatureover-plotted

9 Globally averaged temperature anomaly relative to the mean

10 Globally averaged temperature difference between the ocean surface and 200 m depth

11 Statements in the Executive Summary Temperature and Heat Content Changes It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (above 700 m) has warmed from 1971 to 2010, and likely that it has warmed from the 1870s to It is likely that the ocean warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2009, based on 5-year averages. It is likely that the ocean warmed from 3000 m to the bottom from 1992 to 2005, while no significant trends in global average temperature were observed between 2000 and 3000 m depth during this period. It is virtually certain that upper ocean (0 to 700 m) heat content increased during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to Warming of the ocean between 700 and 2000 m likely contributed about 30% of the total increase in global ocean heat content (0 to 2000 m) between 1957 and Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth s energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total

12 Energy accumulation within distinct components of the Earth s climate system relative to ZJ = J = Ws kwh = TWh Elektrische Energie durch Kraftwerke in Deutschland 2013: 632 TWh

13 Statements in the Executive Summary Salinity and Freshwater Content Changes It is very likely that regional trends have enhanced the mean geographical contrasts in sea surface salinity since the 1950s: saline surface waters in the evaporationdominated mid-latitudes have become more saline, while relatively fresh surface waters in rainfall-dominated tropical and polar regions have become fresher. It is very likely that large-scale trends in salinity have also occurred in the ocean interior. The spatial patterns of the salinity trends, mean salinity and the mean distribution of E P are all similar

14 Measures of salinity and salinity trends Salzgehalt Totes Meer: ~ 300

15 Statements in the Executive Summary Sea Level Change Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m over the period , calculated using the mean rate over these 110 years, based on tide gauge records and since 1993 additionally on satellite data. It is very likely that the mean rate was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr 1 between 1901 and 2010 and increased to 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm yr 1 between 1993 and It is very likely that warming of the upper 700 m has been contributing an average of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8] mm yr 1 of sea level rise since It is likely that the rate of sea level rise increased from the early 19th century to the early 20th century, and increased further over the 20th century. It is likely that the magnitude of extreme high sea level events has increased since

16 3-year running mean sea level anomalies relative to from long tide gauge records Data have been corrected for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA)

17 Statements in the Executive Summary Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry Based on high agreement between independent estimates using different methods and data sets (e.g., oceanic carbon, oxygen, and transient tracer data), it is very likely that the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon (C ant ) increased from 1994 to Uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 results in gradual acidification of the ocean

18 2010 column inventories of anthropogenic CO

19 Long-term trends of surface seawater pco 2 and ph