African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi

Transcription

1 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine

2 1. What is AMMA? 1.1 Introduction and Objectives AMMA is a coordinated international project to improve our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an emphasis on daily-tointerannual timescales. International aims are: To improve our understanding of the WAM and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally. To provide the underpinning science that relates variability of the WAM to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations and defining and implementing relevant monitoring and prediction strategies. To ensure that the multidisciplinary research carried out in AMMA is effectively integrated with prediction and decision making activity.

3 1. What is AMMA? 1.2 International Planning Scientists from more than 20 countries in Africa, Europe and the US are now involved. Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Chad France Germany Ghana Ivory Coast Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Togo UK US EU AMMANET African scientists have developed an African Science Plan Has received endorsement from WCRP (CLIVAR and GEWEX) and two projects in IGBP (IGAC and ILEAPS).

4 1. What is AMMA? 1.3 International Funding EU proposal has been successful and is recommended to be funded at the 11.7M Euro level ( ) 2M Euro will be spent on radiosoundings over West Africa (05/07) France has mobilised 8M Euro for AMMA UK has a 2.5M Euro proposal DOE funded mobile ARM facility Other US platforms proposed including S-Pol/ISSs, Ron Brown, P3

5 1. What is AMMA? o o Co-Chairs Jean-Luc Redelsperger, CNRM (CNRS & Météo-France), France Chris Thorncroft, University at Albany (SUNY), US 1.4 International Science Steering Group Members o Abel Afouda, Université du Bénin, Benin Anton Beljaars, ECMWF o Bernard Bourles, LEGOS, France Arona Diedhou, IRD, Niger o Andreas Fink, University of Cologne, Germany Paul Houser, NASA, US o Jim Haywood The Met Office, UK Peter Lamb, University of Oklahoma, US o Thierry Lebel, LTHE, France Bob Molinari, NOAA/AOML, US o Doug Parker, University of Leeds, UK Jan Polcher, LMD/IPSL, France o Joe Prospero, University of Miami, US Claire Reeves, University of East Anglia, UK

6 1. What is AMMA? 1.5 A multidisciplinary and multiscale approach Global: 2-way interactions between the WAM & the rest of the globe (e.g role of SST patterns on WAM variability; impact of WAM on tropical Atlantic). Variability from seasonal to decadal scales Regional: Monsoon Dynamics and Scale Interactions,Continental Water Cycle, Land and Ocean Processes, Aerosols and Chemistry Variability from intraseasonal to interannual scales Mesoscale: Mesoscale Convective Systems, Tropical Cyclones, Catchments and Vegetation Intraseasonal variability M O D E L L I N G S A T E L L I T E S O B S E R V A T I O N S Sub-meso (<10km): Hydrological Cycle, Vegetation Convective rain scale=>coupling scale with hydrology (Sahel)=>Main scale of interest for agriculture,

7 1. What is AMMA? 1.6 International Working Groups Monsoon and Climate Water Cycle Surface Feedbacks Downscaling Applications and Impacts

8 2. Why do we need AMMA? 2.1 The Societal need for improved weather and climate prediction over West Africa Time series ( ) of average normalized April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E); following methodology of Lamb and Peppler, 1992).

9 2. Why do we need AMMA? 2.1 The Societal need for improved weather and climate prediction over West Africa Dominant pattern of precipitation error associated with dominant pattern of SST prediction error based on persistent SST anomalies (Goddard & Mason,Climate Dynamics, 2002) Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for onset and retreat) for Niamey based on area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000).

10 2. Why do we need AMMA? Intraseasonal variability (wet and dry spells) / Monsoon onset

11 2. Why do we need AMMA? 2.2 The societal need for improved predictions of Atlantic hurricane activity The WAM impacts TC activity on daily-to-interannual timescales SAL AEWs TC MCSs A majority of tropical cyclones form from African weather systems but which one?

12 3. AMMA FIELD CAMPAIGN PACE (km) Supra-regional (WA + Ocean) Regional (WA) Long term Observation Period Enhanced Obs. Period Catch, Idaf, Aeronet Impetus, Pirata,. Mesoscale SO P SOP0: Dry phase SOP1: Monsoon Onset SOP2: Monsoon Max SOP3: Late Monsoon, TC 10 1 Local IOPs IOPs IOPs TIME (Years)

13 The Core AMMA Region

14 Improved Radiosounding Network SOP3 SOP1&2

15 4 July 2004, 0000 UTC, ECMWF assimilation.

16 Sounding frequencies EOP/LOP: As a minimum: March 2005 October 2007: 1 per day (existing + 4 new) March 2006 October 2006: 1 more per day Total: 1220 per station (~ 20,000 soundings) Extra: 6350 sondes contributed by AMMA-IP SOP: June-September: 2 more per day on 12 key stations; Quadrilaterals: 4 more per day, on 5 stations, on 80 days 4600 additional soundings Could make use of descent data

17 Targeting tropical weather systems NOAA P3s and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes Targeted Missions: French, UK, US aircraft Solid-to extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to track MCSs toward coast Surface-based research radars Climate Transect

18 DRIFTSONDE FOR SYNOPTIC COVERAGE (THORPEX) NOAA P3s and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes Targeted Missions: French, UK, US aircraft Solid-to extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to track MCSs toward coast Surface-based research radars Climate Transect

19 DRIFTSONDE FOR SYNOPTIC COVERAGE (THORPEX) NOAA P3s and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes Targeted Missions: French, UK, US aircraft Solid-to extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to track MCSs toward coast Surface-based research radars Climate Transect In-situ surface and ocean observations e.g. 2 ships, drifting buoys (wind, sea level pressure, SST), moorings

20 4. AMMA-THORPEX LINKAGES Ongoing discussions between AMMA and THORPEX (esp. Dave Parsons, Sarah Jones) have led to identification of several key areas of joint interest

21 4. AMMA-THORPEX LINKAGES Proposed joint activities (1) Impact of additional observations and especially radio-soundings in analysis/forecasting systems for: a) Africa => EOP, SOPs b) Atlantic & USA (Hurricane) => SOP3, EOP c) Europe (2 week forecasts)=> EOP, SOPs Such an evaluation would ideally be part of an international effort carried out in a coordinated fashion among a few NWP centres. This is equally important for THORPEX research regarding the optimal mix of observations for global weather forecasting.

22 4. AMMA-THORPEX LINKAGES Proposed joint activities (2) Targeted observations in tropical regions SOP2 & SOP3: Dropsondes launched from driftsondes and aircraft should be considered along with aerosonde observations. Pre-SOP numerical studies are necessary to investigate the possible adaptive observational guidance of these observations.

23 4. AMMA-THORPEX LINKAGES Proposed joint activities (3) Tailoring forecast products for users in tropical regions (1-14day and seasonal ) e.g. monsoon onset, wet and dry spells

24 4. AMMA-THORPEX LINKAGES RECOMMENDATION: A specific AMMA-THORPEX working group is required to coordinate these proposed activities. Membership: NWP centers (e.g. ECMWF, NCEP, MeteoFrance, Met Office) African Met. Services THORPEX AMMA task teams (e.g. SOP2, SOP3)

25 WAM Scale Interactions