1. CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER AFRICA. 1.1 Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD)

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1 African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development Centre Africain pour les Applications de la Météorologie au Développement OCTOBER 2011 HIGHLIGHT: Cholera, Acute Water Diarrhoea, Yellow fever, Influenza, Measles, Malaria and Meningitis are the disease affecting some African countries as reported in Relief Web and Pro-Med mail. Heavy rainfalls were observed in the Gulf of Guinea, GHA and Central Africa. 1. CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER AFRICA 1.1 Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) The ITD is the demarcation line between north/north-eastern winds from the Sahara (hot, dry and dusty) and south/south-western winds from Atlantic Ocean (cool and moist) as seen in Figure 1. Between the first dekad (red line) and the second dekad (blue line) of October 2011, the ITD continued its southwards migration over the domain with a mean displacement of 2 degrees of latitude over Mauritania, Senegal and Niger while its southward displacement was about 1 degree of latitude over Mali, Chad and Sudan. Between the second dekad (blue line) and the third dekad (black line), the ITD had a generalized southwards migration with about 1 degrees of latitude over the western part (north Senegal to western Niger) and about 3 degrees over the eastern part of the domain (from northern Nigeria up to Sudan). 1.2 Dust Haze The figure 2 below shows mean dust events in the month of October 2011 from WMO SDS-WAS Programme: BSC-DREAM8b model. From the map, the dust loading particles (0.1 to 0.4 g/m 2 ) have been observed over most of localities above 05 N, intensifying with dust loading particles ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 g/m 2 over southern Algeria, northern Mali, eastern Niger, central Chad, north-eastern Sudan, and Eritrea. Figure 1: Dekadals ITD position Figure 2: Dust loading particles Source: Barcelona Supercomputing Center 1

2 1.3 Rainfall The figure 3 below on estimated cumulative rainfall shows spatial distribution of rainfall along with observed amounts where: North Africa countries had rainfall amounts of rainfall between 10mm to 150mm over northern Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya. The Sahel countries had rainfall amounts ranging from 10mm to 100mm over the extreme southern part of Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Senegal. Gulf of Guinea countries had rainfall amounts ranging from 20mm to 300mm over most part intensifying south-eastwards to about 500mm over Nigeria. Central Africa countries had rainfall amounts ranging from 20mm to 400mm increasing northwards to the heaviest amount of about 600mm over north-east Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon and Cameroon. GHA countries had amounts ranging between 10mm to 300mm over most countries with localized high amounts between 300mm to 600mm over northeast Kenya and South Somalia. Southern Africa countries: had rainfall amounts ranging from 10mm to 200mm over northern and eastern parts The October 2011, rainfall anomaly derived from long-term mean period of (Figure 4), shows that rainfall is normal in term of distribution and amounts over the continent. Figure 3: Monthly cumulative rainfall for October2011 Data Source: NOAA/NCEP Figure 4: Monthly Rainfall anomalies for October 2011 Data Source: NOAA/NCEP 1.4 Relative Humidity The mean relative humidity map (Figure 5) shows that the month, had high surface relative humidity ranging from 60% to 100% over southern part of the Sahel, most part of the Gulf of Guinea countries, of Central Africa, most part of GHA countries and northern and eastern parts of southern Africa including Madagascar. However, low relative humidity (<40%) prevailed over African countries north of 15 N of latitude (the Sahel and the Sahara) and over western part of Southern Africa. 2

3 1.5 Air Temperature The temperature map below (Figure 6) shows that, most of African countries experienced temperatures ranging from 18 C to 32 C (shaded area). The only exception is the extreme southern part of the continent that experienced temperature below the above threshold. Figure 5: Surface Relative Humidity Source: NOAA/NCEP Figure 6: Mean air temperature Source: NOAA/NCEP 1.6 Vegetation Index The EVI-MODIS images from 16 th to 31 st October, 2011 (Figures 7a, 7b and 7c) were observe. They show high vegetation cover over extreme southern part of the Sahel, most of the Gulf of Guinea countries, most of Central Africa countries and western and southern parts of GHA countries including Ethiopian highlands. Elsewhere, had low to none existence of vegetation cover. The breeding of mosquitoes will be high in those areas with thick vegetation cover as shown in these regional images. Figure : 7a Figure: 7b Figure: 7c EVI images: 16 th to 31 th September 2011, Source: IRI 3

4 2. CLIMATE RELATED DISEASES During October 2011, outbreaks of cholera continued to be observed in Niger, Central African Republic, Somalia, Chad, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia reported by Pro-Med mail and Relief Web. According to the same sources, some Acute Water Diarrhoea is observed in Somalia; yellow fever in Uganda and southern Sudan; Influenza in Egypt; Measles and Dengue Fever were observed in Somalia and Malaria in Liberia and Democratic Republic of Congo. The wet conditions with the prevailing high temperatures and vegetation cover in several parts of Africa continued to support the breeding of mosquitoes and increased incidences of malaria over parts of the Continent. For the epidemiologic situation of the meningitis, there were low cases over the African meningitis belt 29 th August to 1 st October. A total cases of 345 isolated cases where observed with 28 deaths, no district in alert and none in epidemic situation. The distribution is as follows: Benin (9 cases with 1 death), Burkina Faso (165 case with 15 deaths), Central African Republic (0 case with 0 death), Côte d Ivoire (6 cases with 0 death), Ghana (32 case with 2 deaths), Mali (9 cases with 0 death), Niger (5 cases with 2 death), Nigeria (52 cases with 5 deaths), Chad (52 cases with 3 deaths) and Togo (15 cases with 0 death). 3. OUTLOOKS The ITD will continue its southwards migration, leading to the reduction of moisture influx into the atmosphere over most part of the Sahel and northern part of the Gulf of Guinea countries. These regions will be under the influence of the Harmattan characterised by dry, cool and dusty winds. However, southern part of the Gulf of Guinea, GHA and central African countries will continue to receive significant amounts of rainfall with localised floods. The heavy rainfall with floods may cause damages on life and property over south-eastern part of the Gulf of Guinea, most of central Africa as well as some GHA countries (Somalia, Kenya and southern Sudan). The observed epidemiological situation of the meningitis over African belt will remain calm with few sporadic cases. The observed and expected heavy rainfall over parts the Gulf of Guinea countries, parts of GHA and central Africa, could lead to increase of malaria outbreaks and other water borne diseases such as cholera, diarrhoea, etc. 3.1 Malaria The incidences of malaria will be higher in areas with high temperatures especially in the range of 18 C to 32 C, high relative humidity (above 60%)/rainfall and thick vegetation cover providing conducive conditions for the survival of the vector and development of the parasites. Based on the above conditions (climatic and environmental parameters) observed during the past month, the most vulnerable parts to incidences of malaria will be the extreme southern Sahel, most of the Gulf of Guinea countries, of Central Africa countries, western parts of GHA (Southern Sudan, Ethiopian highlands, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia) and northern part of southern Africa. 3.2 Meningitis Based on climatic parameters (low/no rainfall, low relative humidity, high temperature, dusts episodes, etc) and observations of epidemic occurrence from the end of August to early October, the meningitis epidemiologic season will continue to be calm over African belt. However, some increases in the cases will be observed do to the effect of Harmattan. 4

5 3.3 Cholera During the month of October 2011, heavy rainfall with floods was observed in Ghana and Central African Republic. These countries as well as countries with excessive amounts of rainfall in Figure 4 (south-eastern part of the Gulf of Guinea countries, most part of Central Africa countries, and parts of GHA) have to be under surveillance to guard against the spread of cholera outbreaks and other water borne diseases. 3.4 Flu and others respiratory diseases Areas under the influence of the Harmattan (the Sahara, the Sahel countries, and northern part of the Gulf of Guinea countries), will observed increase of the incidence of flu and other respiratory diseases such as asthma, bronchitis, flu, etc. 3.5 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook of central Africa for OND 2011 by ACMAD issued in September Zone I covering Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome et Principe, the coastal area of Cameroun, most part of Gabon and coastal part of Congo, will have above normal rainfall. Zone II including south-east Cameroun, south-west of Central African Republic, east Gabon, central and north of Congo and part of western Democratic Republic of Congo will be characterized by normal to below normal rainfall. Zone III, covering the extreme south of Chad, central part of Cameroon, most part of Central Africa Republic and democratic Republic of Congo will be characterized by normal rainfall. Figure 12: Precipitation Outlooks Valid for October- November-December 2011 over Central Africa. 3.6 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for west Greater Horn of Africa for SOND 2011 by IC ICPAC issued in September Zone I: normal to below normal rainfall over western Tanzania; southern Burundi and southwestern Rwanda. Zone II: normal to above normal rainfall over much of Tanzania; northern Burundi; much of Rwanda; western Kenya as well as southern and central Uganda. Zone III: above to near normal over northeastern and northern coast of Tanzania; coastal, central and northeastern Kenya; extreme southern Ethiopia as well as southern and central Somalia. Zone IV: normal to below normal rainfall over northern Somalia; eastern and southern Ethiopia; northwestern Kenya and northern Uganda. Zone V: normal to above normal rainfall over much of South Sudan; western, central and northern Ethiopia and Djibouti. Zone VI: generally dry conditions over Sudan; northern Ethiopia and much of Eritrea. Figure 9 : GHA Climate Outlook for September to December

6 3.7 Southern Africa Rainfall Outlook (SARCOF-15) for OND 2011 issued in September Zone 1 (The extreme north of the DRC): Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall Zone 2 (North-eastern half of Tanzania): Increased chances of above-normal rainfall Zone 3 (North-western half of Angola, the bulk of DRC, south-western half of Tanzania, extreme north-eastern parts of Zambia, northern half of Malawi and north eastern Mozambique): Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall Zone 7 (Western Madagascar): Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall Zone 8 (Eastern Madagascar): Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall Zone 9 (Southern Madagascar): Increased chances of above- normal to normal rainfall Zone 10 (Mauritius): Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall Zone 4 (Central South Africa, south-western half of Lesotho, western half of Botswana, most of Namibia, south-eastern half of Angola, extreme south of DRC, central parts of Zambia, southern half of Malawi, north-eastern half Zimbabwe and central Mozambique): Increased chances of normal to belownormal rainfall Zone 5 (North-eastern half of Lesotho, north-eastern parts of South Africa, Swaziland, southern parts of Mozambique, south-western half of Zimbabwe, eastern half Botswana and southwestern Zambia): Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall Zone 6 (The west coastal areas of South Africa, Namibia and the extreme south-western Angola): Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall Figure14: Rainfall forecast for October-December 2011 ADVICE: Detailed climate analyses and forecasts at the country scale (including rainfall amounts and the onset) are available from National Meteorological Services. The high rainfall variability in the region may cause risks with adverse effects throughout the season, particularly on Life and property (flooding) on plants (locust invasion) and Public Health (malaria epidemics and other waterborne diseases such as cholera). We are calling upon the public health sector and humanitarian Agencies to maintain vigilance and make timely responses. 6

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