BESPOKEWeather Services Friday Morning Update: SLIGHTLY BEARISH

Transcription

1 Forecasts overnight cooled dramatically, with European cooling the medium-range the most. A cool shot from the Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and East from the 15 th through the 18 th looks to pull cooling demand around to slightly below average, even as some heat may be able to linger across the South. From there models do gradually show heat returning to the South and East, though a weak trough should keep temperatures around to slightly below average across the Midwest. There are still signs that this pattern will gradually break down as we move into the end of June, as a AAM pulse should allow heat to return to the East and most models are consistent in returning cooling demand above average beyond June 20 th. Week 3 forecasts though still have a more cool risks, with GEFS guidance at risk of cooler further at 12z before long-range heat is seen. Overnight Changes GEFS/GFS CMC Ensembles BESPOKEWeather Services Friday Morning Update: SLIGHTLY BEARISH July natural gas prices are down a few cents this morning on what was a far cooler run of the European ensembles overnight as forecasts cooled decently. This should be enough to keep prices under pressure today, and any bounce to $2 or higher is likely to be quickly sold. The strip appears only modestly supportive following these broad demand losses, and generally we see risk for another $7 support test ahead of the weekend. The key question here is whether this support can break, and we would likely need to see afternoon model guidance confirm overnight guidance for that to be the case. We do expect it to be tested, and risk today certainly remains to the downside. However, following yesterday s pipeline explosion and with recent production declines, we may see the impacts of looser burns and GWDD losses muted. Cash prices have similarly remained strong, so though bounces fail, support may be able to hold for now. Forecast Confidence: 5/10 July Nat Gas Daily Change: -1.2% Most Recent Cash Mid-Point: $5 July 2018 Contract Natural Gas ECMWF Ensembles Teleconnections Climate Models Week 3 Changes Expected 12z GWDDs 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 Total BWS Forecast Old Forecast yr Avg Avg June 8, For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted /5/18 Preliminary EIA Forecasts 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun Storage Change (bcf) yr Storage Change (bcf) Forecast/Observed TDDs yr Avg TDDs Climo

2 bcf June 8, 2018 BESPOKEWeather Services Weather-Driven Demand Forecasts Morning GWDD Forecasts BWS Forecast Old Forecast yr Avg Avg 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 Overnight GWDD Change 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 2 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted GWDDs Avg 2018 Forecast 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/14 6/16 6/18 6/20 6/ Forecast Next 4 EIA Prints 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun Storage Change (bcf) 5-yr Storage Change (bcf) 15-Day GWDD Forecasts BWS Forecast Old Forecast yr Avg Avg

3 Natural Gas Forward Strip 0.25 Natural Gas Contract Movement Over Time Natural Gas Future Strip Most Recent Settle Month Ago 3 Months Ago 6 Months Ago 1 Year Ago 2 Years Ago Natural Gas Calendar Prices /5/2017 /2018 /2018 /2018 /2018 /2018 Daily Move Weekly Move Monthly Move 6 Month Move Cal 18 Cal 19 Cal 20 Cal 21 Cal 22 Cal 23 June 8, For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted /2018

4 Energy Commodity, Spread, And Range Rundown Heating Oil vs. Natural Gas HO NG 6/8 8/8 10/8 12/8 2/8 4/ Natural Gas vs. WTI Crude WTI NG 40 6/13 8/13 10/13 12/13 2/13 4/ Day Average Natural Gas Daily Range As Percent Of Price D Year Average This Year D-145 D-103 D-61 D-19 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% D Future H/J -0.2 Future V/F 0.02 Future J/V /8 8/8 10/8 12/8 2/8 4/8 June 8, 2018 H9/J9 H0/J0 H1/J /8 8/8 10/8 12/8 2/8 4/8 V8/F9 V9/F0 V0/F1 4 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted /8 8/8 10/8 12/8 2/8 4/8 J9/V9 J0/V0 J1/V1

5 Front Six Natural Gas Contract Daily Charts July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December June 8, 2018 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted

6 7-12 Month Natural Gas Contract Daily Charts 3.3 January February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June June 8, 2018 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted

7 13-18 Month Natural Gas Contract Daily Charts July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December June 8, 2018 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted

8 June 8, For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted BESPOKEWeather Services Morning Update Disclaimer and Key Bespoke Weather Services, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Key: 0z GFS/GEFS: Overnight American Weather Model Guidance 6z GFS/GEFS: Early Morning American Weather Model Guidance 0z ECMWFens: Overnight European Weather Model Guidance 0z CMCens: Overnight Canadian Weather Model Guidance Teleconnections: Atmospheric indices that measure expected orientation both of upper and lower levels of the atmosphere (ie. MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc.) Bearish Bullish Current Analysis Yesterday s Analysis Climate Models: Models that look out at least one month in the future, focusing longer than the standard 10 to 15-day computer weather models GWDDs: Gas Weighted Degree Days (calculated by combining Population Weighted Cooling Degree Days (PWCDDs) with Utility Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (UGWHDDs)) EIA Forecasts: Our forecast for the weekly change in natural gas stockpiles, going out four weeks Expected 12z: Our preliminary take on how we expected 12z afternoon model guidance to differ from morning output Note: All above information is part of this informational key, and is not updated daily. For more terms, definitions, and explanations, see our subscriber-only glossary here.