CropCast Corn and Soybean Report Kyle Tapley Monday, March 20, 2017

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1 Accumulated Rainfall (inches) Accumulated GDDs Temperature ( F)/Wind Speed (mph) Precipitation (inches) CropCast Corn and Soybean Report Kyle Tapley Monday, March 20, 2017 Peoria, IL Regional Forecast Discussion Showers and thunderstorms moved across the region this morning, with the heaviest amounts favoring northern areas. Mostly cloudy skies are expected for the rest of the day, with higs reaching the low 60s. Southerly winds are expected this morning, but winds will be become northerly this afternoon at around 5-10 mph. Cooler and drier weather is expected tomorrow, with highs near 50. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week, with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the low 40s. Temperatures will turn warmer again late this week, with rain expected to return on Friday and Saturday. Day Date 10 Day Forecast for Peoria, Illinois M ax Temp M in Temp Daily Avg Precipitation ( F) ( F) Humidity (inches) Monday 20-Mar % 0.78 Tuesday 21-Mar % 0.01 Wednesday 22-Mar % 0.00 Thursday 23-Mar % 0.07 Friday 24-Mar % 0.55 Saturday 25-Mar % 0.51 Sunday 26-Mar % 0.06 Monday 27-Mar % 0.25 Tuesday 28-Mar % 0.35 Wednesday 29-Mar % Day Hourly Forecast for Peoria, Illinois Today's Wind Direction/Speed Local Direction Speed Time From (mph) 6:00 AM SSE 7 7:00 AM SSE 7 8:00 AM SSE 7 9:00 AM SSE 8 10:00 AM S :00 AM S 7 12:00 PM SSW 5 1:00 PM WSW :00 PM NW 5 3:00 PM N 6 4:00 PM N :00 PM N 8 6:00 PM NNE 8 7:00 PM NNE Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar Precipitation Temperature Wind Speed 26-Mar 0 8:00 PM NNE 9 9:00 PM NE 9 10:00 PM NE 8 11:00 PM NE 8 Accumulated Precipitation since March 1 for Peoria, IL Accumulated Growing Degree Days (Base 50 F) since March 1 for Peoria, IL /1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/93/113/133/153/173/193/213/233/253/273/293/314/2 0 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/93/113/133/153/173/193/213/233/253/273/293/314/ Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 30 Year Normal 2016 Actuals 30 Year Normal 2016 Actuals Page 1

2 Total Precipitation Yesterday Total Precipitation Past 7 Days MDA Precipitation Forecast Monday, March 20, 2017 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 Thursday, March 23, 2017 Friday, March 24, 2017 Total Precipitation Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Precip Compared to Average 6-10 Day Precip Compared to Average Day Precip Compared to Average Page 2

3 Maximum Temperature Yesterday Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days MDA Maximum Temperature Forecast Monday, March 20, 2017 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 Thursday, March 23, 2017 Friday, March 24, 2017 Average Maximum Temp Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average 6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average Day Temp Compared to Average Page 3

4 Minimum Temperature Yesterday Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days MDA Minimum Temperature Forecast Monday, March 20, 2017 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 Thursday, March 23, 2017 Friday, March 24, 2017 Average Minimum Temp Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average 6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average Day Temp Compared to Average Page 4

5 6-10 Day Forecast: Sat Mar 25 - Wed Mar 29 MDA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast Drier southern Delta MDA 6-10 Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is slightly wetter in the southwestern Plains, and drier in the southern Delta. Temperatures are warmer in the northern Plains. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the eastern Plains, Midwest, and northern Delta should further improve moisture supplies for wheat. Showers in the western Plains will likely result in only minor improvements in moisture for wheat. Mild temperatures in the western Midwest and Plains will increase soil temperatures. RISKS: There is a drier risk in the southwestern Plains. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is slightly below normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble Day Forecast: Thu Mar 30 - Mon Apr 3 MDA Day Temperature Forecast Wet eastern Plains, Midwest, Delta MDA Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is unchanged. Temperatures are cooler in the western Plains. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the Plains, Midwest, and Delta would continue to improve moisture for wheat. However, rain amounts are still expected to be too light to end dryness in the southwestern Plains. Mild conditions in the eastern Plains, Midwest, and Delta would continue to improve soil temperatures. RISKS: There is a drier risk in the western and northern Plains and northern Midwest. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is slightly below normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble Page 5

6 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/11 3/13 3/15 3/17 3/19 3/21 3/23 3/25 3/27 3/29 3/31 4/2 Accumulated Precip (in.) CropCast Corn and Soybean Report Kyle Tapley Monday, March 20, 2017 Past 45 Days Precipitation Percent of 30 Year Average Past 45 Days Temp Departure Compared to 30 Year Average The chart below shows how accumulated precipitation since April 1 compares to benchmark weather years in the Peoria area. Benchmark unfavorable weather year: 2012 (IL corn yield 37% below trend, IL soybean yield 12% below trend) Benchmark favorable weather year: 2014 (IL corn yield 18% above trend, IL soybean yield 12% above trend) Accumulated Precipitation for Peoria, IL Compared to Benchmark Weather Years The maps below track crop progress across the U.S. for the corn and soybean crops based on weekly data from the USDA crop progress report. These maps are updated each Tuesday, showing data from the previous Sunday. The colors on the map indicate county-level production levels for each crop. Corn harvesting is now 97% complete nationally, slightly ahead of the 5 year average of 96%, and matching the harvest pace from last year at this time. The only major corn producing state with less than 90% of the harvest complete is Michigan, where 83% of the corn crop had been harvested as of Sunday. There is also still at least 5% of the corn harvest left to complete across North Dakota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. None of these areas are running significantly behind the 5 year average, however. Snow in the far northern Midwest over the next couple of days may slow remaining corn harvesting, but drier weather later this week should allow the harvest to near completion in most areas. Soybean harvesting has finished up in most areas Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 30 Year Normal 2014: Benchmark Favorable Year 2012: Benchmark Unfavorable Year Page 6

7 Global Ag Highlights Vegetative Health Index (VHI) is derived by satellite and is used to help determine whether crops are under stress and can also be used to estimate crop yields. The maps below show the Vegetative Health Index for major growing areas around the world relative to a 30 year average. Values less than zero represent below normal VHI, while values above zero represent above normal VHI. This imagery is updated on a weekly basis. Most recent update: Mar 18, Below Normal Above Normal Desert Snow/Ice or Missing Data Regional Crop Weather Discussions Midwest PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored central Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor central and eastern areas today, and far southern areas on Tuesday. Showers should return to northwestern areas Thursday, then spread into north central and west central areas on Friday. CROP IMPACT: Showers in eastern areas this past weekend further improved moisture, and additional improvements are expected mainly in northern and western areas this week. Temperatures should be rather mild this week. Regional Vegetative Health Imagery Brazil PAST 72 HOURS: Rains favored central Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Sao Paulo, northern Parana, and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should favor Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Minas Gerais, eastern Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul this week DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in east central areas. CROP IMPACT: Rains in northern areas this past weekend slowed soybean harvesting but did improve moisture a bit for safrinha corn early growth. However, much more rainfall is needed to sufficiently replenish moisture. Some slight improvements will be possible in northwestern areas this week, but dryness will build further in central areas. Argentina PAST 72 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few showers should favor northern Cordoba, northern Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and far eastern Buenos Aires Tuesday through Thursday. Dry weather should prevail otherwise through Friday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in north central areas. CROP IMPACT: Dry weather over the weekend allowed wetness to ease a bit in northeastern areas, and continued limited rains this week will favor corn and soybean drydown as the crop reach maturation. However, an upturn in rains in northern areas in the 6-10 day period would slow drydown a bit. South Africa: Black Sea: Other Major Crop Areas Forecast is unchanged; mostly dry weather this week will favor maturation and drydown of corn. Forecast is unchanged; warm weather this week will keep winterkill threats very low. Page 7

8 North America Long Range Forecast Percent of Average Precipitation over the Past 30 Days Similar El Niño/La Niña Years: The forecasts on this page are updated monthly Last Update: Mar 9, 2017 April Temperature Forecast May Temperature Forecast June Temperature Forecast April Precipitation Forecast May Precipitation Forecast June Precipitation Forecast APRIL CROP PHASES Corn Planting Early Soybean Planting Winter Wheat Jointing/Heading MAY CROP PHASES Corn Planting/Germination Soybean Planting/Germination Winter Wheat Heading JUNE CROP PHASES Corn Vegetative Growth Soybean Vegetative Growth Winter Wheat Harvesting Long Range Potential Crop Impacts Warm and drier conditions in the Delta and Southeast in April will favor corn and soybean planting, but will lower moisture for germination Wetter conditions in the Plains in May will favor heading winter wheat and spring wheat germination Dryness will likely persist across the Delta through June, stressing corn and soybean growth An upturn in showers in the Prairies by June will improve moisture for spring wheat Page 8

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