Communicating with Maps and Graphics NWS Products and Services

Transcription

1 Communicating with Maps and Graphics NWS Products and Services 2012 NC Hurricane Workshop May 23, 2012 Rich Bandy, Meteorologist-in-Charge National Weather Service WFO Newport/Morehead City, NC

2 Hurricane Irene Track Forecast

3 Hurricane Irene Track Forecast

4 Interpreting the Cone Represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone. Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point (at 12, 24, 36 h, etc.) Size of the circles determined so that the actual storm position will be within the circle 2 out of 3 times, based on NHC statistics from the previous 5 hurricane seasons It is important to remember that the center of the storm will remain entirely within the cone only about 60 70% of the time

5 Interpreting the Cone The cone only depicts probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone. It says nothing about wind impacts It says nothing about storm surge impacts It says nothing about rainfall and/or flooding impacts It says nothing about tornado impacts It says nothing about rip currents and waves

6 Tropical Impact Graphics These graphical impact graphics become available when an area is placed under a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning (typically 36 to 48 hours in advance of landfall.)

7 Tornado Impact Graphics

8 Tornado Impacts Columbia, NC EF Scale Rating - EF2 Estimated Max Winds 130 mph Maximum Width 50 yards Path Length 0.5 miles Cresswell, NC EF Scale Rating EF1 Estimated Max Winds 110 mph Maximum Width 50 yards Path Length 0.5 miles Belhaven, NC EF Scale Rating EF1 Estimated Max Winds 105 mph Maximum Width 75 yards Path Length 4.40 miles

9 Inland Flooding Impact Graphics

10 Heavy Rainfall Impacts

11 Wind Impact Graphics 24 hours prior to landfall projection of 115 MPH hurricane

12 Wind Observations

13 Probabalistic Winds

14 Hurricane Irene Wind Extent Graphic

15 National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) On our website under Gridded Images 7-Day public, marine & fire weather forecasts Dozens of elements shown in graphic format: temperature, weather, sky cover, relative humidity, wind speed/direction, seas and many more!

16 Hourly Weather Graph

17 Potential Wind Graphic

18 Coastal Flooding Impact Graphics 18 hours prior to landfall

19 Height Above Height Above Ground Level (Inundation) Reference Level

20 Height Above Height Above Ground Level (Inundation) Reference Level

21 Surge Referenced Above Ground 4

22 Storm Surge Observations (Above Normal High Tide)

23 Storm Surge Observations (Above Ground Level)

24 Storm Surge Observations (Above Normal High Tide)

25 Storm Surge Observations (Above Ground Level)

26 Hickory Point On the Pamlico River, Beaufort County, at the height of Irene. Courtesy Williamson Family

27 Hickory Point On the Pamlico River, Beaufort County, at the height of Irene. Courtesy Williamson Family

28 Hickory Point Older homes wiped clean off the foundation and off the peninsula entirely.

29 Hickory Point Many homes pushed off their foundation.

30 Hickory Point Rip-rap from seawall carried inland/home damage. Courtesy Williamson Family

31 Irene Outer Banks Sound Side Surge Oregon Inlet USCG Cape Hatteras

32 Pea Island Cut Left: 2011 after Irene/Right: 1993 Note: Highway 12 was on the coast side of the maintenance buildings in 1993.

33 Pea Island: Images from USGS

34 Rodanthe S-Curves Dune breach/inlet cut at Mirlo Beach.

35 Storm Surge Guidance SLOSH Along Forecast Track Run

36 Storm Surge Guidance SLOSH Left of Forecast Track Run

37 Storm Surge Guidance SLOSH Right of Forecast Track Run

38 Storm Surge Guidance Maximum Envelope Of Water MEOW Aggregate of Tracks for a CAT 3 Moving NNE at 15 mph at High Tide

39 Storm Surge Guidance Maximum Of the MEOWS MOM Aggregate of Tracks for a CAT 3 of All Directions and Speed at High Tide

40 Probabilisitic Storm Surge Guidance Takes into account actual NHC Track Forecast and statistics of NHC error including: timing, location, intensity, and size of storm. Uses an ensemble of SLOSH runs to create probabilistic storm surge (p-surge) Different directions of motion Different landfall locations Different intensities Different storm sizes Different forward speeds

41 Probabilisitic Storm Surge Available when the NHC issues a hurricane watch or warning for the continental US. Can be utilized to assess potential surge based on uncertainties in forecast. Guidance Available approx. 1-2 hours after the advisory release time Used to assist in generating coastal flooding impact graphics and surge forecasts in NHC and local NWS office text products.

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44 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1158 PM EDT FRI AUG SITUATION OVERVIEW... WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK....IRENE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN DUE TO SIZE NORTH AND.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS THE STRENGTH OF HURRICANE ACTIONS... IRENE...SIGNIFICANT CAROLINA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING THE IMPACTS CAROLINA WILL COAST... OCCUR PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM ACTIONS... CENTER. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE...DAMAGING WINDS AND FRESH WATER FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.NEW INFORMATION... AS IRENE AFFECTS TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. PREPARATIONS THE AREA. TROPICAL FOR THE STORM PROTECTION FORCE WINDS OF LIFE HAVE AND MOVED PROPERTY SHOULD BE INTO SOUTHERN NORTH COMPLETED CAROLINA...AND AT THIS TIME. WILL EVACUATE SPREAD NORTHWARD IF DIRECTED THROUGH TO DO SO BY LOCAL THE NIGHT. HURRICANE.AREAS AFFECTED... OFFICIALS...OR FORCE WINDS IF YOUR ARE HOME FORECAST IS VULNERABLE TO BEGIN ACROSS TO HIGH THE WINDS OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND FLOODING. AROUND 5 AM AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS HURRICANE IN SELECT WARNING AREA AT 8 AM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF EASTERN NORTH HURRICANE CAROLINA IRENE AND SMALL TO MAKE CRAFT LANDFALL SHOULD NEAR REMAIN CAPE IN LOOKOUT PORT AND AROUND WELL SECURED. 11 AM ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION....WATCHES/WARNINGS... A FLOOD WATCH IS PLEASE IN EFFECT REFER FOR TO ALL THE OF DETAILED EASTERN RECOMMENDATIONS NORTH CAROLINA. RELATIVE TO YOUR A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL LOCATIONS... WILL INCREASE LOCATION IN INTENSITY AS FURTHER AS HURRICANE DESCRIBED BY IRENE YOUR MOVES LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER MARTIN...PITT...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...MAINLAND DARE...GREENE... THROUGH THE AREA SERVICE OVERNIGHT. OFFICE RAINFALL AND LOCAL AMOUNTS EMERGENCY OF 6 MANAGEMENT. TO 10 INCHES BEAUFORT...MAINLAND HYDE...DUPLIN...LENOIR...JONES...CRAVEN... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES COULD OCCUR PAMLICO...CARTERET...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE AND DURING OUTER THIS BANKS EVENT. && THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST HYDE. OF HIGHWAY 17. PLEASE LISTEN FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND A 5 PAMLICO TO 9 FEET SOUNDS. OF SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AREAS THAT WILL BE HARDEST HIT WILL BE ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. Overview of HLS for entire region INCLUDING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT RIVERS...OCEANSIDE MIGHT BE IN AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...AND SOUNDSIDE EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES. THESE WATER LEVELS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING OF HOMES...ROADS...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH PROPERTIES. CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. 10 TO 15 FOOT BREAKERS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE BEACH EROSION...OCEAN.STORM INFORMATION... OVERWASH...AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6N...LONGITUDE 76.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT A 200 TORNADO MILES WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BUXTON NC...OR ABOUT 150 MILES TORNADOES SOUTH OF ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MAINLY MOREHEAD CITY NC. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES ALONG THE AT 13 IMMEDIATE MPH. COAST. ANY TORNADOES THAT OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF STORM INTENSITY WAS 100 MPH. AND VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE. PLEASE LISTEN FOR ANY TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

45 HLS for Coastal Counties NCZ045> > /O.CON.KMHX.HU.W T0000Z T0000Z/ WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE- CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER FOR HYDE COUNTY...THERE ARE MANDATORY BANKS DARE-OUTER EVACUATIONS BANKS SUBSTANTIAL IN PLACE FOR BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR. MANY ROADS WILL LIKELY BE HYDE- OCRACOKE ISLAND AND MAINLAND HYDE PAMLICO COUNTY. RIVERS...AND NASH COUNTY ALONG DAMAGED SHELTER THE OR CRYSTAL IS WASHED COAST. OUT GIVEN BY THE THE FLOOD LATEST WATERS...LEAVING SECTIONS OF 1158 PM EDT OPEN FRI AT AUG INGLEWOOD BAPTIST CHURCH FORECAST...THERE IN ROCKY MOUNT IS A NC. CHANCE COASTAL WILSON FOR COMMUNITIES COUNTY COMBINED STORM IN FLOOD SURGE PRONE AND AREAS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF. SHELTER IS OPEN AT RALEIGH ROAD BAPTIST ASTRONOMICAL CHURCH IN TIDE WILSON WATERS ROADWAY NC. UP FOR TO TRAVEL 9 FEET MAY ABOVE BE DANGEROUS MEAN SEA LEVEL WITH SEVERAL WITHIN ROADS CLOSED....HURRICANE MORE WARNING INFORMATION REMAINS PLEASE IN EFFECT... CALL THE AREAS PUBLIC CLOSER INFORMATION TO THE COAST...RESULTING LINE AT IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION OF 6 TO 8...INLAND FEET ABOVE FLOODING... GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SURGE ZONE. MAXIMUM A FLOOD STORM WATCH SURGE OF IS IN 10 EFFECT FT MAY FOR OCCUR ALL OF IN EASTERN DOWNEAST NORTH CAROLINA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY...THERE ACTIONS... ARE CARTERET MANDATORY COUNTY EVACUATIONS ALONG RAINFALL THE FOR SOUTHERN WILL PEOPLE INCREASE PAMLICO IN INTENSITY SOUND...AND AS HURRICANE ALONG THE IRENE MOVES LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS. NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. TOWARD ALONG THE COAST THE OUTER EARLY BANKS...5 SATURDAY. TO RAINFALL 7 FEET OF AMOUNTS OF 6 TO FOR DARE COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS SURGE ARE IN IS EFFECT LIKELY WITH FOR ALL MAJOR 10 INCHES DUNE WITH EROSION LOCALLY AND HIGHER OVERWASH AMOUNTS AND AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES COULD VISITORS AND FOR RESIDENTS. TYRRELL COUNTY...THERE EVACUEES SHOULD ARE USE MANDATORY POTENTIAL HIGHWAY DUNE EVACUATIONS 64 WEST BREACHES. OCCUR FOR A DURING PEOPLE STORM SURGE THIS EVENT. OF 4 TO THE 6 FT HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH LIVING MANNS IN HARBOR LOW LYING DUE AREAS TO CONGESTED AND MOBILE AT ROADS TOPSAIL HOMES. DUE BEACH. TO NORFOLK ALONG OCCUR THE EAST ALBEMARLE OF HIGHWAY SOUND PLEASE TO 5 FEET. LISTEN THE FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS VIRGINIA EVACUATIONS. THERE ARE NO SHELTERS MOST OPENED LIKELY IN PERIOD DARE OF THAT IMPACT MIGHT WILL BE BE IN SATURDAY EFFECT FOR AND YOUR SATURDAY AREA. COUNTY. SHELTERS && AVAILABLE FOR DARE COUNTY EVENING. EVACUEES CAN USE TJ DAVIS RECREATION CENTER 400 E SIXTH STREET IN ROANOKE RAPIDS......WINDS... NORTHAMPTON...PROBABILITY CULTURAL OF AND TROPICAL WELLNESS STORM/HURRICANE CENTER THERE 9536 IS A HIGHWAY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS AS THREAT HURRICANE TO LIFE IRENE AND PROPERTY MOVES THROUGH FROM COASTAL THE AREA...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NORTH THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS FLOODING...POTENTIALLY AT THIS TIME IS 65 FORECAST PERCENT. HAVING TO A MAJOR BE IN THE IMPACT. 45 TO THE 65 CONCERN MPH RANGE IS FOR WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH. IN JACKSON. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM THE CHANCE CONDITIONS OF MAJOR AT THIS COASTAL TIME IS FLOODING 93 TO OCCUR IN AREAS WITHIN THE TO 100 PERCENT. SURGE ZONE...RESULTING DAMAGING DAMAGING WINDS AND ARE LIFE-THREATENING EXPECTED. POORLY ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE FOR ONSLOW COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS INUNDATION. ARE EFFECT IF REALIZED...PEOPLE FOR DESTROYED...ALONG MOST WITHIN THE WITH THREATENED THOSE OF OLD AREAS OR WHO POOR CONSTRUCTION. SOME OF THE COUNTY....STORM MANDATORY SURGE AND EVACUATIONS STORM TIDE... ARE FAILED IN EFFECT TO HEED FOR OFFICIAL TOPSAIL WELL EVACUATION ANCHORED ORDERS MOBILE WILL HOMES HAVE WILL NEEDLESSLY HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO BEACH. A CURFEW AN EXTREMELY WILL BE DANGEROUS IN PLACE FROM STORM MIDNIGHT TIDE PLACED WILL TONIGHT THEIR RAISE LIVES WATER THROUGH IN DANGER. ROOFS...WALLS...AND LEVELS BY THIS AS IS ESPECIALLY WINDOWS...AND TRUE FOR THOSE COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. 9 AM SUNDAY. MUCH SHELTERS AS 6 TO ARE 11 FEET OPEN ABOVE AT THE GROUND FOLLOWING STAYING LEVEL SCHOOLS...DIXON BEHIND IN THE IN HURRICANE VULNERABLE SOME WARNING HOMES LOCATIONS OF FRAME SUCH CONSTRUCTION AS HOMES AND WILL SUSTAIN PARTIAL WALL AND MIDDLE SCHOOL...JACKSONVILLE AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING COMMONS...RICHLANDS BUSINESSES THE ALBEMARLE HIGH...SOUTHWEST NEAR THE AND SHORE...AND ROOF PAMLICO FAILURE...AND ONE STORY POSSIBLY DWELLINGS BLOWN IN OUT FLOOD- WINDOWS. LOOSE OUTDOOR MIDDLE...SWANSBORO SOUNDS. NEAR HIGH...AND THE COAST...THE WHITE OAK SURGE HIGH. PRONE WILL AREAS. BE ACCOMPANIED ITEMS BY WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE- THREATENING WAVES. POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE POWER OUTAGES WITH FOR CARTERET COUNTY...THERE IS A MANDATORY SEVERAL EVACUATION COASTAL FOR COMMUNITIES ALL SOME DOWNED WILL LIKELY POWER BE POLES. DAMAGED...WITH NUMEROUS THOSE LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES RESIDENTS AS AND HURRICANE VISITORS OF IRENE BOGUE APPROACHES BANKS. BOTH THE STRUCTURES COAST...THERE THE ATLANTIC NOT RAISED IS AN WILL INCREASING OR SNAP. PROTECTED SOME BY TREES A SEAWALL WILL BE BEING UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY SUBJECT TO WHERE THE BEACH BRIDGE CHANCE AND FOR THE COMBINED EMERALD ISLE STORM BRIDGE SURGE ARE SIGNIFICANT AND CLOSED. ASTRONOMICAL A FLOODING...ESPECIALLY CURFEW GROUND AT TIDE WATERS IS SATURATED. DURING UP HIGH TIDE. LARGE WAVES BOGUE BANKS TO 9 IS FEET IN EFFECT ABOVE UNTIL MEAN LIFTED. SEA LEVEL SHELTERS WITHIN AND ARE POUNDING AREAS OPEN CLOSER AT SURF THE WILL TO THE ACCENTUATE COAST... PROPERTY DAMAGE IN EXPOSED FOLLOWING RESULTING SCHOOLS...NEWPORT IN WORST CASE MIDDLE... FLOOD WEST INUNDATION LOCATIONS. CARTERET FLOOD OF 4 TO WATERS 6 FEET...COASTAL ABOVE MAY EXTEND HAZARDS... WELL INLAND IN SPOTS. MANY HIGH...ATLANTIC GROUND ELEMENTARY...WITH LEVEL SOMEWHERE A HOST WITHIN SHELTER CARS THE SURGE WILL AT LIKELY ZONE. BE SUBMERGED THERE WILL OR BE WASHED A HIGH RISK AWAY. OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES SMITHFIELD/SELMA SENIOR HIGH. TODAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE THE GREATEST FLOODING DUE TO RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF...BEACH GOERS ARE URGED INCLUDE THE OUTER BANKS...DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY...AREAS TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...THE NEUSE AND $$

46 Threat Assessment Briefings WFO MHX began issuing PowerPoint briefing presentations to the emergency management community via in the Spring of Free form presentations containing graphics and explanations of threats associated with potential significant weather events that will affect life and property. Initially used to support significant severe weather outbreaks, the program was expanded to support Tropical Operations. In 2010 the briefings were expanded to the media. In 2011 for Irene, we began disseminating them to the public, posing them on our Top News of the Day on the website and on Facebook.

47 Social Media Click on the above image to Like us on Facebook!! We now have a local Facebook page to stay connected with users via social media. This page will have all Threat Assessment Briefings, and short text status updates. This is a great tool for the public to stay informed, especially through mobile technology. It is also a great way to submit reports to the NWS. Search for National Weather Service Newport to Like us!

48 Commemorating High Water Marks Placed commemorating Irene: Downtown Manteo, NC Downtown Columbia, NC Placed commemorating Floyd: Trenton, NC Kinston, NC Greenville, NC Belhaven, NC Educational reminders to all of the need to be prepared and resilient.

49 Thanks!