Provide dynamic understanding of physical environment for ecosystem science and offshore operations and planning.

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1 ENHANCING THE CANADIAN METAREAS OPERATIONAL COUPLED OCEAN-ICE- ATMOSPHERE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR FINE-SCALE APPLICATIONS IN THE BEAUFORT SEA by Fraser Davidson, Greg Smith, Youyu Lu, Jean-Francois Lemieux, Fred Dupont, Francois Roy, Jei Li, Simon Higginson, Shannon Nudds, Bruno Tremblay, Dany Dumont Provide dynamic understanding of physical environment for ecosystem science and offshore operations and planning.

2 The Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment (BREA) Preparing for oil and gas activity in the Beaufort Sea by: Support efficient and effective regulatory decision-making by providing scientific and socioeconomic info information to all stakeholders and for all offshore projects. Inuvialuit communities industry governments and Regulators Integrated planning and management in the region Engage and inform Inuvialuit communities

3 The Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment (BREA)

4 The Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment (BREA)

5 CONCEPTS CREG DOMAIN Build on CONCEPTS / METAREA developments Develop coupled forecasting system N. America/Arctic Couple NEMO to GEM regional (10km) 5km LAM over METAREAS 17&18 with 5km Atm 4DVAR/EnKF Produce 48hr weather and marine forecasts 10 day ocean forecasts (non coupled) GEM RDPS 10km 1/12

6 Example of CREG 12 Output Special emphasis on model s ability to resolve tides and fresh water input to Beaufort Model hind cast to be run to tune numerical forecast system and prepare high resolution data assimilation Update Running yearly 10 yr hindcasts Running yearly forecast simulations for y 2011 Improving ice physics and numerics Improving wave ice interactions Developing web window for Beaufort

7 Supporting Regional Products CONCEPTS REGIONAL DOMAIN: 1/12th degree resolution, tides covering Arctic/North Atlantic Domain Modified SAM2 analysis: dealing with tides Series of hindcasts used to build data assimilation information Coupling geared towards 2-5 day forecasts with ability to forecast fog. Operational Requirements: Provide validated ocean and ice intel in near real time and delayed mode for: Environmental Assessments of oil fields in Beaufort Search and Rescue Marine Resource Extraction Operations Storm Surge Prediction Iceberg prediction Oil Spills Permits decision making for integrated management Hindcasts/reanalysis creates ocean time series anywhere needed

8 Project Timeline March 2012 March 2013 March 2014 March 2015 Hindcast 1 Hindcast 2 Hindcast 3 Validation H Validation H Validation H Fcst 1 Fcst Fcst 2 3 Validation F Validation F Valid. F Model Improvements Asssimilation Implementation th New Ice Rheology Land fast ice Waves and Ice for Marginal Ice Zone Implementation of test web site Project web site

9 BREA project is leveraged by and leverages other projects DND CONCEPTS ~200K Transition of CONCEPTS GLOBAL to CMC Operations Development of Validation Package Development of products on CONCEPTS EC Computer Project Management BREA Project 300K Ocean-Ice Improvements to METAREA Coupled System Collaboration with UQUAR (Dumont) and McGill (Tremblay) Data Assimilation on CREG12 Beaufort Sea web window with products and validation Industry related proposals: ESRF and PRNL Enhancing CONCEPTS regional system on Newfoundland and Labrador Coasts

10

11

12 S & Circulation at 550 m: CREG025

13 S & Circulation at 550 m: GLORYS2

14 S & Circulation at 550 m: CREG12

15 Satellite tracks Satellite Altimetry for Dec Envisat Cryosat 2 satellites 4 tracks daily across Beaufort Sea Further north, track frequency increases Reasonable good coverage from altimeters

16 Links with DFO Biology DFO conducting ecosystem survey 2012 & 2013 Provides CTD transect data to project Our Project contributes to: Ecosystem Model of Beaufort Sea developed by DFO ERI DFO Climate Change Adaptation Program: Artic component

17 Arctic Net CTD Data In Situ / Sat. Data for Validation & Assimilation Arcic Net CTD Data CLIVAR Data Northern Watch camp at Gascoyne Inlet ICES CTD transects Envisat Track Data

18 Example of Web Site for Beaufort

19 Example of Web Site for Beaufort

20 Example of Web Site for Beaufort

21 This FY Objectives/Deliverables Ocean Model: Improvements to CREG domain from NEMO/MoGSL comparison Long term hind casts with validation Analysis System Start data assimilation scientist on BREA SAM2 ¼o DA on CREG12, then 1/12 th DA Pursue plans for high res coastal SSH data set Ice Model / Analysis System: Deliver Ice Forecast System to CMC Continued with improvements Validation package: Improve ice drift validation Produce integrated CONCEPTS validation package (ocean and ice) Apply validation package to C-NOOFS and CREG12 output Dissemination on CONCEPTS computer (IML, NAFC) WEB SITE development COUPLING: validate GEM-NEMO on GSL domain

22 Why do we want Ocean-Ice Forecasting? DND: Awareness of ocean conditions and acoustic properties DFO: EC: Improved ocean descriptions State of the ocean reporting Understanding the ecosystem Search and Rescue Improved Weather forecast Better info for oil spill tracks

23 ENHANCING THE CANADIAN METAREAS IN THE BEAUFORT SEA Thank You

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