CropCast Weekly Rice Report Don Keeney Wednesday, May 31, 2017

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1 Global Rice Summary 17/18 Production Estimate: MMT Rains in northern Vietnam this week should improve moisture for rice. Abundant rains Thailand are maintaining favorable moisture. Widespread rains in Yangtze Valley and South China this week should further improve moisture there for rice. Showers in Luzon in the Philippines last week continued to improve moisture. Abundant showers across West Africa continue to improve moisture, although more rains are still needed, especially in Ghana, southern Ivory Coast, and central Nigeria. Drier weather in central and northern Brazil have allowed harvesting there to finish up. Drier weather in Argentina and Uruguay this week will allow harvesting there to improve. Dryness will continue to build across central and southwestern Madagascar. An upturn in rains in central and southern India this week will improve moisture for kharif rice. Additional rains in the Coastal Bend in the U.S. will further improve moisture for rice growth. China 17/18 Prod. Estimate: MMT PAST WEATHER: Showers favored western and east central South China last week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, with 35% coverage. FORECAST: Showers should build across Yangtze Valley and South China this week. CROP IMPACT: Moisture shortages and stress continue to build on rice across southern Yangtze Valley and South China as rains remain rather limited. However, a notable upturn in rains in those areas this week should improve moisture supplies and crop conditions. Some dryness may linger in eastern North China Plain, though. Japan 17/18 Production Estimate: 7.50 MMT PAST WEATHER: Showers were noted across much of the region this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, with 85% coverage. FORECAST: Showers should favor northeastern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Showers last week were too limited to significantly improve moisture supplies for rice. Limited rains in central and southwestern areas this week will maintain moisture shortages and stress on rice. India/Bangladesh/Pakistan 17/18 India Prod. Est.: MMT 17/18 Bangladesh Prod. Est.: MMT 17/18 Pakistan Prod. Est.: 7.22 MMT PAST WEATHER: Showers favored east central and southern India and Bangladesh this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 6, with 50% coverage of India and 85% of Bangladesh. FORECAST: Showers should build further across central and eastern India this week, and also remain active across Bangladesh. CROP IMPACT: Continued abundant rains in Bangladesh will maintain some wetness concerns. Meanwhile, additional rains across east central and southern India will further improve moisture for kharif rice growth.

2 Indonesia 17/18 Production Estimate: MMT PAST WEATHER: Rains favored central and southern Sumatra, northern Malay Peninsula, Kalimantan, and East Malaysia this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 10, with 80% coverage. FORECAST: Rains should favor southern Sumatra, northern Malay Peninsula, Kalimantan, and East Malaysia this week. CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across the region continue to improve moisture supplies, but are maintaining slow harvesting of main season rice. Limited rains in central and northern Sumatra and Malay Peninsula this week should favor harvesting. Vietnam/Thailand 17/18 Vietnam Prod. Est.: MMT 17/18 Thailand Prod. Est.: MMT PAST WEATHER: Showers favored central and southern Vietnam and Thailand last week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 6, with 75% coverage of Vietnam and 90% of Thailand. FORECAST: Showers are expected across much of Vietnam and Thailand this week. CROP IMPACT: Active rains in Thailand are maintaining favorable moisture for main season rice growth. However, some dryness is developing across northern Vietnam. Some improvements are likely in northern Vietnam this week. Philippines 17/18 Production Estimate: MMT PAST WEATHER: Rains were noted across much of the region again this past week, favoring Luzon. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 10, with 90% coverage. FORECAST: Showers should be widespread across the region this week. CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across Luzon last week continued to improve moisture supplies, and additional improvements are expected this week. The rains are most needed in southwestern Luzon. The rains will continue to favor main season rice growth. Brazil 17/18 Production Estimates: 8.28 MMT PAST WEATHER: Showers favored northwestern Mato Grosso, eastern Bahia, southern Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 10, with 30% coverage. FORECAST: A few showers should continue to favor southern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Drier weather in central and northern areas has allowed harvesting to finish up.

3 Argentina/Uruguay PAST WEATHER: Showers were noted across much of the region again this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 2.5, with 90% coverage. FORECAST: Mostly dry weather is expected this week. CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across the region last week maintained slow harvesting, but drier weather this week will favor harvesting. West Africa 17/18 Nigeria Prod. Est.: 2.98 MMT PAST WEATHER: Rains were widespread across the region this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 4, with 85% coverage. FORECAST: Showers should be widespread across much of the region again this week. CROP IMPACT: Continued active rains across the region are slowly improving moisture, but heavier rains are needed in many areas to ease long term moisture shortages. The rains are most needed in southern Ivory Coast, Ghana and central Nigeria. Precipitation Past 7 Days Precipitation % Normal-Past 30 Days Southeast Africa 17/18 Madagascar Prod Est.: 2.39 MMT PAST WEATHER: Showers favored northeastern Madagascar this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 4, with 25% coverage. FORECAST: A few showers should favor northeastern Madagascar again this week. CROP IMPACT: Additional rains across northeastern areas are maintaining favorable moisture for rice. However, continued drier weather in central and southwestern areas will allow moisture shortages to continue there.

4 United States 17/18 Production Estimate: 6.47 MMT PAST WEATHER: Showers were noted across much of the Delta and Coastal Bend this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 4, with 90% coverage. FORECAST: Rains should be active across the Delta and Coastal Bend this week. CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across the Delta and Coastal Bend are maintaining favorable moisture for rice. Additional rains across the Coastal Bend this week will continue to improve moisture for rice. West Africa Vegetative Health Index (VHI) West Africa VHI Change from Last Year Southeast Africa Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Southeast Africa VHI Change from Last Year

5 China Vegetative Health Index (VHI) China VHI Change from Last Year India Vegetative Health Index (VHI) India VHI Change from Last Year

6 North America Vegetative Health Index (VHI) North America VHI Change from Last Year Southeast Asia Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Southeast Asia VHI Change from Last Year South America Vegetative Health Index (VHI) South America VHI Change from Last Year

7 CROPCAST RICE FORECAST May 31, 2017 AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2017 PRODUCTION CHANGE (T HA) (KG/HA) (TMT) OVER PAST WK OVER 2016 PCT ACTUAL PCT ACTUAL (TMT) (TMT) CHINA JAPAN INDIA BANGLADESH NIGERIA INDONESIA VIETNAM THAILAND PAKISTAN MADAGASCAR PHILIPPINES BRAZIL U.S OTHERS WORLD