CropCast Daily Agri-Highlights Don Keeney Monday, July 25, 2016

Transcription

1 VHI Image Date: July 15, 2016 USA Corn Soybeans Vegetative Health Index Map and Crop Condition Tendency EUROPE Corn BLACK SEA INDIA Soybeans Groundnuts CHINA Corn Soybeans ARGENTINA BRAZIL Safrinha Corn AUSTRALIA Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Legend Stressed Healthy Desert Snow/Ice or Missing Data Colored boxes within the map above indicate whether crop conditions will be declining or improving for each crop in each major global growing region, incorporating current conditions and the latest 10 day CropCAST forecast. Declining Neutral Improving The Midwest corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Showers favored MN, WI, northeast IA, northeast MO, IL, northern IN, north central OH, and southwest MI over the weekend. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 2.5, with 60% coverage. Showers should favor southern and eastern areas today, then favor far southern and northwestern areas on Tuesday. Showers should build across western areas on Wednesday and Thursday, then spread into eastern areas on Friday. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.5, locally 2.5, with 95% coverage. Wetter and cooler conditions in southern and eastern areas this week will improve conditions for corn and soybeans. The 6-10 day outlook is drier in central areas. The day outlook is drier in north central areas. The Black Sea wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. Showers favored northeastern Ukraine, eastern Belarus, eastern Central Region, western North Caucasus, southeastern Volga Valley, northwestern and northeastern Kazakhstan, and southern Western Siberia this past weekend. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, with 40% coverage of the winter wheat. Showers should favor western Ukraine, Belarus, Central Region, eastern North Caucasus, and western and northeast Kazakhstan this Amounts should be 0.25 to 1.5, with 30% coverage. Rains have improved moisture in central Russia and northeastern Ukraine. The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in northwestern Ukraine, and drier in North Caucasus. The China corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Showers favored far northern North China Plain, far western Yangtze Valley, and eastern and far western Northeast China this past weekend. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 7, with 55% coverage. Rains will favor northeastern North China Plain, western Yangtze Valley, and southern and eastern Northeast China this Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.5, locally 4, with 70% coverage of corn and soybeans. Rains should continue to improve moisture in Northeast China corn/soybean areas this The 6-10 day is wetter in west central North China Plain and southern Yangtze Valley. Europe: Australia: Prairies: Other Major Crop Areas Forecast is unchanged today; showers should improve moisture in eastern areas this Forecast is unchanged today; some dryness will build in northern NSW, southern Queensland, and central South Australia. Forecast is unchanged today; some dryness will continue in northwestern Alberta.

2 6-10 Day Forecast: Sat Jul 30-Wed Aug 3 MDA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast Drier central Midwest MDA Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is drier in the central Midwest and central Plains. Temperatures are warmer in the northwestern Midwest and northern Plains. CROP IMPACT: Dry conditions in the central Midwest will allow moisture to decline again, while showers in the northern Midwest and northern Delta would further improve moisture for corn and soybeans. Drier weather in the central and southern Plains would favor remaining winter wheat harvesting. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in the southern Midwest. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble Day Forecast: Thu Aug 4-Mon Aug 8 MDA Day Temperature Forecast Drier north central Midwest MDA Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is drier in the north central Midwest. Temperatures are unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the western and southern Midwest would maintain favorable moisture for corn and soybeans, but moisture would decline in in the central and southern Delta. Showers in the northern Plains would improve moisture for spring wheat growth. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in the Delta. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble

3 United States The Midwest corn/soybean/wheat belt is unchanged today. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored Minnesota, Wisconsin, northeastern Iowa, northeastern Missouri, Illinois, northern Indiana, north central Ohio, and southwestern Michigan over the weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor southern and eastern areas today, then favor far southern and northwestern areas on Tuesday. Showers should build across western areas on Wednesday and Thursday, then spread into eastern areas on Friday. CROP IMPACT: Showers in central and northwestern areas over the weekend improved moisture, but dry and warm conditions in southern areas stressed corn and soybeans a bit. However, wetter and cooler conditions this week will improve conditions, especially in southern and eastern areas. The Delta corn/soybean belt is unchanged today. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored southeastern Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and southwestern Tennessee over the weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should be abundant across the region this CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across the region this week will improve moisture for corn and soybean growth. The Northern Plains wheat belt is wetter Tuesday, and drier Friday. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and Minnesota over the weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few showers should return to South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and northern Minnesota on Tuesday, then build across eastern Montana, the Dakotas, and southern Minnesota on Wednesday and Thursday. A few light showers favored central South Dakota on Friday. CROP IMPACT: Additional showers in South Dakota, western North Dakota, and eastern Montana this week should further improve moisture for spring wheat. The Plains wheat belt is wetter Wednesday. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored west central Nebraska, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado over the weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor southeastern areas today, then build across much of the region Tuesday through Thursday. A few light showers should linger in southern areas on Friday. CROP IMPACT: The upturn in rains across the region this week will slow winter wheat harvesting, especially in central and southeastern areas. United States % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days Midwest Midwest Midwest Plains Delta Delta Delta N. Plains W. Corn Soybeans W. Corn Soybeans S. > 6 mm (0.25") 50% 61% 58% 37% 67% 64% 67% 74% > 25 mm (1.0") 10% 19% 15% 0% 1% 2% 1% 3% Corn Areas Soybean Areas W. Areas United States % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast Midwest Midwest Midwest Plains Delta Delta Delta N. Plains W. Corn Soybeans W. Corn Soybeans S. > 6 mm (0.25") 101% 100% 97% 100% 99% 98% 99% 65% > 25 mm (1.0") 78% 52% 50% 41% 89% 85% 87% 14%

4 Past 72 Hour Precipitation Totals (inches) Previous Forecast 72 Hour Precipitation MDA Precipitation Forecast Monday, July 25, 2016 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 Wednesday, July 27, 2016 Thursday, July 28, 2016 Friday, July 29, Day Total

5 Maximum Temperature 3 Days Ago Maximum Temperature 2 Days Ago Maximum Temperature Past 24 Hours MDA Maximum Temperature Forecast Monday, July 25, 2016 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 Wednesday, July 27, 2016 Thursday, July 28, 2016 Friday, July 29, Day Average Temperature Departure

6 Argentina The Argentina corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Argentina % Precipitation Coverage Argentina % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days W. Corn Soybeans 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 5% 3% 2% > 6 mm (0.25") 68% 41% 43% > 25 mm (1.0") 5% 3% 2% > 25 mm (1.0") 19% 13% 9% Argentina Crop Areas PAST 72 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should build across La Pampa, Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in Buenos Aires. CROP IMPACT: Moisture is adequate across most winter wheat areas, although some spotty dryness is occurring in south central Buenos Aires. However, showers this week should improve moisture there as well as in eastern wheat areas. RISKS: There is a drier risk eastern Buenos Aires in the 6-10 day period. Areas Corn Areas Soybean Areas Brazil The Brazil corn/wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. Brazil % Precipitation Coverage Brazil % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days W. Corn Soybeans 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 0% 0% 0% > 6 mm (0.25") 35% 10% 13% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 7% 2% 3% Brazil Crop Areas PAST 72 HOURS: A few showers favored southeastern Bahia this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should return to Rio Grande do Sul this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Continued drier weather in central and northern areas through the next ten days will favor corn harvesting. However, stress will build on winter wheat. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in Rio Grande do Sul in the 6-10 day period. CONFIDENCE: Slightly above normal. Areas Corn Areas Soybean Areas

7 Europe The Europe wheat/rapeseed belt forecast is unchanged today. Europe % Precipitation Coverage Europe % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days W. Corn Rapeseed 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Rapeseed > 6 mm (0.25") 19% 21% 32% > 6 mm (0.25") 38% 51% 68% > 25 mm (1.0") 5% 6% 8% > 25 mm (1.0") 2% 4% 3% Areas Corn Areas Europe Crop Areas PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored northern UK, central and southern Germany, eastern France, western Czech Republic, western Hungary, and northern Former Yugoslavia this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should favor northern UK, southeastern Germany, Scandinavia, Poland, Czech- Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Former Yugoslavia this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is drier in northeastern Germany and western Poland. CROP IMPACT: An upturn in rains in eastern areas this week will improve moisture for corn and sunflowers, especially in Poland, Czech-Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Former Yugoslavia. However, dryness will build further in southern France, Spain, Italy, Romania, and Bulgaria. The drier weather there will favor wheat harvesting, though. RISKS: There is a drier risk in Hungary this Black Sea Region Black Sea % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days W. S. Corn Sunflower > 6 mm (0.25") 39% 35% 31% 31% > 25 mm (1.0") 9% 10% 4% 5% Areas Black Sea Crop Areas Black Sea % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. S. Corn Sunflower > 6 mm (0.25") 30% 51% 11% 21% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 7% 0% 1% The Black Sea wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored northeastern Ukraine, eastern Belarus, eastern Central Region, western North Caucasus, southeastern Volga Valley, northwestern and northeastern Kazakhstan, and southern Western Siberia this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor western Ukraine, Belarus, Central Region, eastern North Caucasus, and western and northeast Kazakhstan this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in northwestern Ukraine, and drier in North Caucasus. CROP IMPACT: Showers have further improved moisture in northeastern Ukraine, Central Region, North Caucasus, and western Kazakhstan, which is favoring spring wheat and summer crops. However, dryness will continue to stress crops in southern Ukraine and eastern Volga Valley. RISKS: There is a drier risk in North Caucasus this

8 China China % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days W. Corn Rapeseed Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 21% 60% 14% 50% > 25 mm (1.0") 8% 21% 4% 16% China Crop Areas Areas Corn Areas Soybean Areas China % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Rapeseed Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 75% 78% 50% 68% > 25 mm (1.0") 26% 42% 19% 37% The China corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored far northern North China Plain, far western Yangtze Valley, and eastern and far western Northeast China this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains will favor northeastern North China Plain, western Yangtze Valley, and southern and eastern Northeast China this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day is wetter in west central North China Plain and southern Yangtze Valley. CROP IMPACT: Rains in Northeast China over the weekend improved moisture a bit, but much more is still needed to end dryness there. Rains in eastern areas this week should indeed further improve conditions for corn and soybeans. Rains should also further improve conditions in northeastern North China Plain. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in east central North China Plain this Southeast Asia SE Asia % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days Palm > 6 mm (0.25") 78% > 25 mm (1.0") 43% Southeast Asia Crop Areas Palm Areas SE Asia % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast Palm > 6 mm (0.25") 89% > 25 mm (1.0") 39% The Southeast Asia palm oil belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored central and northern Sumatra, southwestern Malay Peninsula, Kalimantan, and East Malaysia this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor south central Sumatra, eastern Malay Peninsula, northern Kalimantan, and East Malaysia this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is drier in northern Malay Peninsula. CROP IMPACT: Showers continued to improve moisture in Kalimantan, East Malaysia, southwestern Malay Peninsula, and north central Sumatra this past weekend. Additional improvements are expected mainly in eastern Malay Peninsula this week, and palm conditions should remain favorable. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in western Malay Peninsula this

9 Australia The Australia wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. Australia % Precipitation Coverage Australia % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days W. Barley Sorghum 5 Day Forecast W. Barley Sorghum > 6 mm (0.25") 26% 26% 0% > 6 mm (0.25") 21% 21% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 1% 1% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% Australia Crop Areas PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored southeastern South Australia, Victoria, and southeastern New South Wales this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should continue across southeastern South Australia, Victoria, and southeastern New South Wales this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is slightly wetter in South Australia and Victoria. CROP IMPACT: Spotty dryness continues in southern Western Australia, central South Australia, northern New South Wales, and far southern Queensland. Dry weather is expected in these areas this week, which will allow moisture to decline further. conditions should remain favorable in the majority of the belt, though. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in Western Australia this Areas India The India soybean/groundnut belt forecast is unchanged today. India % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days W. Soybeans Groundnuts > 6 mm (0.25") 63% 37% 94% > 25 mm (1.0") 47% 18% 60% India Crop Areas Soy Areas India % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. Soybeans Groundnuts > 6 mm (0.25") 100% 101% 100% > 25 mm (1.0") 97% 91% 100% PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored southeastern Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should be widespread across the region this 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day forecast is wetter in east central areas. CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across central Madhya Pradesh are maintaining some wetness concerns for soybeans. However, rains elsewhere continue to improve moisture for groundnut and soybean belt. Rains will be most beneficial in western areas this RISKS: There is a wetter risk in western Rajasthan this Groundnut Areas

10 Canadian Prairies Canada % Precipitation Coverage Past 3 Days S. > 6 mm (0.25") 51% > 25 mm (1.0") 8% Canadian Prairies Crop Areas and Canola Areas Canada % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast S. > 6 mm (0.25") 70% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% The Canadian Prairies wheat/canola belt is unchanged today. PAST 72 HOURS: Showers favored east central and northern Alberta, south central Saskatchewan, and Manitoba this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor central and southern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta on Tuesday, then linger in southeastern Saskatchewan on Wednesday. Showers should favor northern Alberta, northern Saskatchewan, and northern Manitoba Thursday and Friday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in northwestern Alberta. CROP IMPACT: Dryness continues to increase again in northwestern Alberta, and showers there later this week will likely be too light to significantly improve conditions. This will stress spring wheat and canola. However, crop conditions should remain favorable elsewhere. RISKS: There is a drier risk in Manitoba this