UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA OUTLOOK (FULL REPORT) Thursday, December 28, 2017

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1 T-storm Weather Summary Despite scattered t-storms Sat.-Sun. in central and northern areas in Argentina, more will likely be needed especially in sunflower areas of the southwest. Some t-storms likely return to Argentina in 10 to 14 days, which will likely be needed in at least southern growing areas. Conversely, Brazil remains seasonably-wet into mid- January. Intense coldness affects U.S. HRW wheat (and cattle) Monday, including central / southern Kansas where it is more likely than previously to be snow-free; temperatures moderate beyond Monday. T-storm Weather Highlights No change: scattered t-storms dot central and northern Argentina Sat.-Sun., 0.50 to 1.00 most common. Slightly wetter: one week of dry weather begins Sun.-Mon. in Arg., followed by some t-storms within Jan No change: t-storms focus on central and southern growing areas of Brazil through Mon.-Tue., then drier. No change: t-storm coverage increases in northern areas of Brazil in 7 to 10 days as a wetter period begins. The central U.S. will be intensely cold Monday with wheat burnback probable in at least central Kansas. A significant winter storm is not foreseen for key U.S. livestock; coldness occasionally eases in 7 to 10 days. Model Notes None. Page Description Today's South United Normal America States Crop Discussion Phase Table South United America States Discussion Today's South Normal America Crop Discussion Phase Table Supporting Pages 1

2 SOUTH AMERICA DISCUSSION Weather Outlook In Argentina, most growing areas will be drier than normal over the next 10 to 14 days as hot upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall over the next two to three days, and cool surface-level high pressure suppresses rainfall for one week starting Sun.-Mon. That said, scattered t-storms occur Sat.-Sun. when a strong cool front sweeps northward, causing 0.50 to 1.00 to affect the northern half to two-thirds of the grain and oilseed belt (6-11). A few t-storms also form next Thu.-Fri. when a brief puff of heat is tempered by a weak cool front in central and southern areas. A seasonably-stormy period most likely follows in 10 to 14 days (Jan. 7-11) when a wave or two of energy pass, producing 0.50 to 1.00 amounts that will likely be needed because ~2.25 is normal of the next two weeks, and medium- and long-term dryness are expected to remain fairly extensive (especially in the north and south). In Brazil, several t-storm clusters affect most areas at one point or another over the next 5 to 10 days, resulting in near-normal rainfall of 1.75 to 3.50 across a large area, including 80% to 90% of first-crop corn and soybean production. Regarding timing, t-storms affect central and northern areas over the next two days as the remnant of a cool front lingers, followed by organized rainfall in southern areas (including Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina) Sun.-Mon. when a strong cool front passes, followed by five days of drying in central and southern areas as heavy t-storm focus on northern growing areas (including key areas of Goias and Mato Grosso, and drier areas of Bahia and Minas Gerais). Recent Weather Scattered t-storms focused on Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul yesterday, while a small t-storm cluster also benefited some of the driest areas of Chaco (18). Temperatures varied widely (19). Crop and Soil Moisture Discussion Areas of significant rainfall over the last two weeks sharply improved topsoil moisture for corn and soybeans in Argentina (but not sunflowers). However, rain is needed in all areas because ~50% of corn and soybeans (and 85% of sunflowers) were drier than normal over the last 30 days, and that the last 60 days were drier than normal across a wide area (13-17). Brazil has been considerably wetter, though a few pockets of dryness linger, especially in Bahia, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina where a lack of rain left 55% and 41% of first-crop corn and soybeans in Brazil drier than normal over the last two weeks, and 52% and 33% over the last 30 days. Argentina Brazil Proportion of National Production By Region Argentina Corn (1 st ) Corn (2 nd ) Soy. Sunflower Wheat Central 54% 56% 13% 36% North 13% 8% 13% 4% South 31% 36% 74% 59% Brazil Region Center-West 13% 66% 49% 2% Northeast 11% 4% 8% 0% South 43% 23% 33% 95% Click here to review detailed crop production maps for Argentina and Southeast 30% 5% 6% 4% Data sources: Argentina Ministry of Ag., Livestock and Fish. (2010/ /15), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics ( ) 2

3 Central U.S. Weather Outlook Several Arctic cold fronts pass over the next 10 days, frequently leaving the central and eastern U.S. sharply colder than normal. UNITED STATES DISCUSSION Coldest weather for wheat (and livestock) occurs Sun. and Mon. mornings when minimums fall into the - 0s ( F) across the northwest two-thirds of the central U.S. (including much of Kansas, Illinois, and Missouri), and the -10s and -20s across the northwest half (including isolated -30s in the Dakotas and Minnesota). Light snow is likely to precede intense coldness in snow-free areas of South Dakota, limiting the potential for additional burnback and winterkill because extensive snowpack will exist by then (including all points from Nebraska and north). Light snowpack currently exists to the south of Nebraska, but the potential for significant snow prior to the arrival of extreme cold is low, most notably leaving wheat in / near Kansas at risk of burnback and winterkill early next week especially along the southern fringe of snowpack in central / northern Kansas where minimums around -10 F are likely, but snowpack will be light to non-existent (22, 23). Otherwise, temperatures moderate in 10 to 14 days as Pacific air begins to mix with Arctic air, warming temperatures to approximately normal levels for early January. The milder setup will allow a strong system to pass within Jan. 7-10, introducing the potential for a significant winter storm in the Delta and southeast half of the Corn belt. That said, similarly to much of the last three months, the system is also likely to bypass the Plains where a lack of humidity suppresses precipitation, continuing agricultural drought for wheat in the Plains. Outside of some light snows in varying areas until then, a winter storm is not foreseen in the central U.S. Recent Weather Temperatures were intensely cold yesterday in HRW wheat (and cattle) areas of the Plains where maximums and minimums in the +/-0s to +10s left the crop 17 F below normal, and likely induced burnback and winterkill in central and northern South Dakota yesterday where minimums fell to around - 10 F for the third consecutive morning (26, 27). That said, temperatures were 10 F to 30 F warmer this morning than yesterday morning in central and northern cattle and wheat areas (26). Crop and Soil Moisture Overview Much of the Plains were unusually dry over the last 60 days with little or no precipitation having fallen. 90-day dryness is becoming evident for the crop as agricultural drought begins for HRW wheat (27, 28). Central and Eastern United States Proportion of National Production By Region Region Corn Soy. HRW Wheat SRW Wheat Spring Wheat Corn Belt 63% 61% 2% 47% 13% Delta 5% 11% 0% 25% 0% Plains Central 17% 12% 56% 0% 0% North 8% 10% 18% 0% 73% South 2% 0% 22% 0% 0% East / Southeast 5% 5% 0% 28% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 13% Data source: USDA ( ) Click here to review our county-level corn, soybean, and wheat production maps over

4 TODAY'S NORMAL CROP PHASE Argentina Brazil United States Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Crop Crop Phase Phase Phase Corn, Early-Planted Corn, Late-Planted Silking Planting Corn, First Crop Corn, Second Crop Silking / Filling Out of Season Corn Out of Season Soybeans, First Crop Soybeans, Second Crop Vegetative Planting Soybeans, Northern Areas Soybeans, Southern Areas Flowering Flowering Soybeans Out of Season Sunflowers Veg. / Rep. / Maturing Spring Wheat Out of Season Winter Wheat Harvesting Winter Wheat Out of Season Source: Various USDA website sources Hard Red Winter Wheat Soft Red Winter Wheat Dormant Dormant 4

5 The South America section begins on the next page 5

6 Forecast: 7-Day Precipitation (") Through Thursday Morning, January 4 Forecast: 7-Day Prcp. (Percent of Average) Through Thursday Morning, January

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12 South America supporting maps and charts begin on the next page 12

13 CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY ARGENTINA CROP PRODUCTION 2014/ /17 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 21% 25% VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/26/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 50% 74% 37% 40% 48% 42% 35% 24% 1% 1% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 27% 37% 36% 46% 44% 10% 55% 44% 1% 62% 37% 0% SOYBEANS LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24% 36% 39% 26% 40% 34% 49% 50% 1% 70% 28% 1% SUNFLOWER WINTER WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 53% 46% DROUG % SUBSOI % DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) 25% 29% % % % % NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina M inistry of Agriculture department-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. Corn Crop #1 is defined as total corn planted prior to December (production data was weighted by approximate planted area via Weekly Grain Reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange over the last three years); Corn Crop #2 is total corn planted in December or later. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 64% 87% 85% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 66% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 37% 24% 30% 5% 10% 12% 10% 10% 3% 4% 13

14 CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY BRAZIL CROP PRODUCTION 2013/ /16 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 21% VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/26/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 53% 55% 52% 62% 13% 26% 40% 35% 19% 17% 8% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 39% 17% 44% 34% 39% 27% 15% 71% 15% 14% 52% 34% SOYBEANS SUGAR LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 44% 18% 38% 41% 35% 24% 33% 55% 12% 20% 56% 24% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 58% 9% 32% DROUG % 20% 20% SUBSOI 35% 46% % 19% 58% 23% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary Geographic Information System analysis of Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and include at least 99%, 98%, and 97% of corn, soybean, and sugar production. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 14

15 11/13 11/18 11/23 11/28 12/03 12/08 12/13 12/18 12/23 12/28 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA PRECIPITATION, WEIGHTED BY FIRST-CROP CORN PRODUCTION, PROPORTION OF CROP THAT WAS DRIER THAN NORMAL THREE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, PRIOR 30-DAY PERIODS ENDING AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Argentina Brazil Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina Ministry of Agriculture department-level crop production and Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over 2014/ /17 in Argentina and 2013/ /2016 in Brazil to develop weights and includes at least 98% of production each year. "Drier than normal", "normal", and "wetter than normal" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 15

16 11/13 11/18 11/23 11/28 12/03 12/08 12/13 12/18 12/23 12/28 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA PRECIPITATION, WEIGHTED BY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION, PROPORTION OF CROP THAT WAS DRIER THAN NORMAL THREE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 30-DAY PERIODS ENDING AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Argentina Brazil Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina Ministry of Agriculture department-level crop production and Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over 2014/ /17 in Argentina and 2013/ /2016 in Brazil to develop weights and includes at least 98% of production each year. "Drier than normal", "normal", and "wetter than normal" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 16

17 11/13 11/18 11/23 11/28 12/03 12/08 12/13 12/18 12/23 12/28 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA ARGENTINA PRECIPITATION, WEIGHTED BY SUNFLOWER PRODUCTION, PROPORTION OF CROP THAT WAS DRIER THAN NORMAL THREE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 30-DAY PERIODS ENDING AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina Ministry of Agriculture department-level crop production and Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over 2014/ /17 in Argentina and 2013/ /2016 in Brazil to develop weights and includes at least 98% of production each year. "Drier than normal", "normal", and "wetter than normal" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 17

18 Precipitation Estimate (mm) 24-Hour Period Ending Today at 6 AM Central Time (1200 UTC) Chart not available today Image Courtesy: NOAA Note: 25mm is approximately

19 Yesterday s Maximum Temperature Today's Minimum Temperature 19

20 United States forecast maps begin on the next page 20

21 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA Chart not available today 21

22 Snow Depth Today at 12 AM Central Time (0600 UTC) Source: National Weather Service 22

23 Winter Wheat and Winterkill Weather Production 23

24 United States supporting maps and charts begin on the next page 24

25 Radar-Estimated Precipitation 24-Hour Period Ending at 7 AM Central Time (1100 UTC) Today Source: National Weather Service Precipitation, 24-Hour Period Ending Today Click here for the detailed weather observations file. 25

26 Yesterday s Maximum Temperature Today s Minimum Temperature Click here for the detailed weather observations file. 26

27 WINTER WHEAT (HARD RED) WINTER WHEAT (SOFT RED) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY U.S. PRODUCTION COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY 4-KM 2 PRECIPITATION GRIDS, AS OF YESTERDAY AT 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) 18% 55% 56% 57% 44% 33% 23% DROUG % % % SUBSOI 47% 48% % DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of USDA county-level crop production data weighted by 4-km by 4-km precipitation grids. Production data is averaged for each county over the last five years to develop weights and included at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the Mississippi River. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 70% 78% 57% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 14% 30% 36% 24% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE ( F), WEIGHTED BY U.S. CROP PRODUCTION FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY- AND DISTRICT-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY THE CONTOURED MEAN OF THE 1) 6-HOUR MINIMUM ENDING AT 7 AM CENTRAL TIME, AND 2) 6-HOUR MAXIMUM ENDING AT 7 PM CENTRAL TIME, COMPARED TO THE CROP-WEIGHTED NORMAL FOR THE DAY 77% 11% 15% 53% 27% 15% 45% 34% 10% 29% 25% 15% 16% 12% 11% 8% --- DEPARTURE FROM 30-YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE FROM LAST YEAR --- YESTERDAY YESTERDAY HRW WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER DECEMBER SRW WHEAT YESTERDAY YESTERDAY LAST 7 DAYS LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER DECEMBER Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of United States Department of Agriculture county-level crop production data weighted by contoured daily temperature from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and maximum and minimum temperature normals from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, Production data is averaged for each U.S. county over the last five years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; PNW wheat is winter wheat in ID, OR, WA; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the M ississippi River. 27

28 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA 28

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