Sunday Weather Briefing for September 9, 2018

Transcription

1 GENERAL OVERVIEW (significant forecast changes in red) Sunday Weather Briefing for September 9, 2018 Rains finish today in the far eastern Corn Belt with dry conditions across the region for the work-week period. No freezing temperatures through at least September 24 (probably longer) Not an overly wet 10-day/two-week forecast for the heart of the Mid-South. Powerful Hurricane Florence to strike the Carolinas on Thursday then stall for several days to create massive flooding. Cool in the Mid-South near term, warm for September 13-19, then cooler again Dry in the HRW wheat belt for the next 7-10 days then rains return. Cool near term, warm for September 13-16, then a little cooler again Periodic rains throughout the next two weeks in especially eastern parts of the northern Plains. No legitimate freeze threats though quite cool for around September 17 Very nice rains to fall in southern growing areas of Brazil for the 6-10/11-15 day periods while modest totals at best are seen further north Argentine rain chances for today through about Wednesday (decent though not overly big totals) Some significant rains this weekend in a part of the winter grain areas of the former Soviet Union and more to fall over the next ten days (forecast for Ukraine looks especially favorable) Below normal rainfall in Australian wheat areas the next two weeks Indian monsoon looks sub-normal the next two weeks

2 QPF Discussion Latest (i.e. early morning) 1-5 day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. I have no disagreements with this forecast. Significant rains shown in the Corn Belt for Ohio are all for today, then even that area will join the dry conditions seen in the rest of the region for this time frame. A good part of the rain shown on this map for the heart of the Mid-South will be for today as well before that area sees more limited rains for the rest of this period. Note that the big rains shown in the Northeast as well as over southeastern Texas really have no tropical influences associated with them. The big rains shown in eastern North Carolina are with Hurricane Florence and will all fall on Thursday. Latest (i.e. early morning) Day 6-7 precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Limited rains will continue in this period for a big part of the middle of the country, though a little rain will start to return on Saturday to far northwestern parts of the Corn Belt. Florence is expected to stall shortly after landfall and thus is expected to produce inundating rains for this period over Virginia and nearby areas.

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4 CORN BELT: Radar-estimated rainfall for the past two days Biggest rainfall totals that I can find at major reporting stations (48-hour period ending 7 AM CDT) include 7.18 at St. Louis (downtown airport), 6.91 at Mount Vernon (IL), 6.53 at Lawrenceville (IL), 6.37 at Huntingburg IN), and 6.20 at Bloomington (IN). Rains will continue to be significant on this Sunday for extreme southeastern Indiana and much of Ohio with additional amounts there of (or even heavier than that for eastern Ohio). The rest of the region is going to be dry today, and even Ohio will join the rest of the Corn Belt in dry conditions for tomorrow through Friday. We will start to see some rain return to the far northwestern Corn Belt for Friday night as a cool front sags into that area, and that rain will likely start the western/northwestern Corn Belt into a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms that will last for the rest of the 6-10 day period. Favored areas for that rain would be northwestern Wisconsin, about the northwestern half of Iowa, eastern/northeastern Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota. Within that area I think that significant rain amounts can fall (and thus the call for above-normal totals for the 6-10 day time frame) and possibly even some locally heavy amounts. Rains would remain meager (or even nothing at all) during that time frame for the rest of the region. All of the Corn Belt would then have rain chances in the day period with western areas probably seeing the biggest totals. Freezing temperatures are not forecast for any location in the Corn Belt through September 24 (and probably a number of days beyond that). Temperatures will be cool for the next three days, then warm to easily abovenormal levels for Wednesday through the weekend. It will be cooler again for September (probably a lot

5 of 30s for lows in the Dakotas for September 17) but then likely warm again for the end of the current day period. MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST: The bulk of the rains are now behind us for northwestern parts of the Mid-South, but there will be additional significant rains in far southern Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and all but far western Tennessee. A lot of that rain will fall over the next 24 hours, with significant rains for the rest of the 1-5 day period confined to just southern parts of the Mid-South. I do not see the Mid-South as the focus for big rains in the 6-10 and day periods (probably normal or even below normal amounts). Florence remains a tropical storm at this time but is expected to regain hurricane status today and will become a major hurricane (CAT 3 or higher) tomorrow. It will continue to be a major hurricane through Thursday, expected to reach peak intensity for Tuesday night (peak winds of 145 mph at that time; near the middle of a CAT 4 rating) and will be either a strong CAT 3 or even a CAT 4 as it makes landfall near the SC/NC border or a little north of there on Thursday. The storm is then expected to become largely stationary for Friday and the weekend, and a result will produce all sorts of extreme flooding problems for large parts of North Carolina and Virginia ( inch rains in some areas have to be considered as a possibility). Mid-South temperatures will run cooler than normal through Tuesday, then will be easily above normal for September before moderating again. PLAINS HRW WHEAT/CATTLE FEEDLOT AREAS: Completely dry weather is expected across this area for at least the next week and possibly for a few days beyond that. Some rain chances will probably return towards the end of the 6-10 day period and rains look fairly significant in the day time frame. Temperatures will stay cool for another 2-3 days, then will be quite warm for September before moderating again. NORTHERN PLAINS: Periodic rains will be seen in this area throughout the two-week time frame; some of it will already be falling for late today and tonight. The rains in question will clearly favor the east versus the west, and in the east I am looking at 2-week rainfall totals of 1-2 for Minnesota and the eastern half of the Dakotas. Temperatures will be warm/very warm for the most part for today through Thursday. Some cooling will start to be seen in western/northwestern areas for Friday, and cool weather will be seen across the region by the end of the weekend and continue through about September 20. The period around September 17 will be the coolest, and I see the potential for a lot of 30s around a big part of the area for that morning. I do NOT see it as a widespread freeze situation, but can envision a few localized areas getting to 32 or a little lower. The day period will then end with temperatures returning to above-normal levels (so overall I do not see any big freeze threat in the region through September 24, and by that time we are getting pretty close to the date of the normal first fall freeze in a lot of the area).

6 INTERNATIONAL WEATHER It will be completely dry throughout all of the main corn/soybean growing areas of Brazil through Wednesday. Rains will start to return to parts of Rio Grande do Sul on Thursday and will spread throughout the southern growing areas of Brazil (and Paraguay) through the end of the 6-10 day period. At least some 1-2 rains will be seen for southern MGDS, Parana, Paraguay, and a good part of RGDS but I should be able to eventually identify areas more likely to see 2-3+ inch amounts. Conditions will remain quite favorable for more significant rain in that same area for the day time frame as well. We will start to see some rains in more northern corn/soybean areas of Brazil for around September 17 and beyond, though likely never real good rains for especially eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, and areas north of there (two-week rainfall totals in those areas will run below normal). There will be rains in Argentina over the next 24 hours in Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and far southern Cordoba, with a rain threat moving northward across all of the main corn/soybean/wheat areas for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Rainfall totals for the 1-5 day time frame will be best in the west with a lot of amounts for Santa Fe, Cordoba, La Pampa, and central/western Buenos Aires. Rains do not look big anywhere in the region for the 6-10 day time frame but will increase some for the day period. There has been some rain this weekend in parts of the winter grain area of the former Soviet Union; I can find a couple spots in Ukraine that have had over an inch. There will be additional rains in the region for both the 1-5 and 6-10 day periods, and totals over the next ten days look quite good ( ) in a lot of Ukraine and in some parts of Southern District and North Caucasus District. Some additional rains may fall in the day period as well, favoring the same areas. Temperatures will continue to run easily above normal throughout the entire two-week forecast period. Rains will still not be very big in Europe over the next ten days with most of France, Germany, and Poland seeing under a half inch. Temperatures will be above normal. Rains for Chinese corn and soybean areas for the next two weeks will run close to normal in Manchuria and for the North China Plain. A lot of the area will see no rain at all for today through Wednesday. Weather looks very good for harvesting through Tuesday on the Canadian prairies for especially Alberta and Saskatchewan with those areas being largely dry. The rest of the 10-day forecast will see harvesting interrupted at times by rainfall throughout the region. Below normal rainfall is expected in all wheat areas of Australia over the next two weeks. It will be completely dry in most areas for today through at least Friday. The Indian monsoon does not look very good for the next two weeks. Especially dry conditions will be seen for the next ten days before some increase in the monsoon is forecast for the day period. Craig Solberg Craigsolberg@globalag.us

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