Paul Iñiguez NOAA/NWS/WFO Phoenix

Transcription

1 HeatRisk NOAA/NWS Western Region Experimental HeatRisk Project Paul Iñiguez NOAA/NWS/WFO Phoenix Mike Staudenmaier NOAA/NWS/WRH/STID Bill Rasch NOAA/NWS/WFO Sacramento Chad Kahler NOAA/NWS/WRH/STID Mark Loeffelbein NOAA/NWS/WRH/STID Darren Van Cleave NOAA/NWS/WFO Salt Lake City Andrea Bair NOAA/NWS/WRH/ISD Michelle Mead NOAA/NWS/WFO Sacramento Early June 2017 Heat Event Early Sep 2017 Heat Event

2 What s The Challenge?

3 What s The Challenge? Before Heat Wave After Heat Wave 75 F 115 F

4 What s The Challenge?

5 What s The Challenge? CDC Problem! 97 NWS Heat is America s Deadliest Weather!

6 What s The Challenge? Heat-Associated Deaths Maricopa County, AZ Source: Maricopa County Public Health

7 What s Needed? According to heat health research, a heat warning system should: Consider Seasonal Timing smashingmagazine.com High Resolution Multi-Tiered For Various Populations Differing Infrastructure Use High/Low Temperatures; Consider Humidity, Clouds, Winds Current Official Methods Aren t Adequate

8 What metric should NWS offices, region, or the entire agency, use to craft our message? Max/Min Temperature? Heat Index? 105? 110? 120??? Advisories and/or Warnings? Coast versus Inland? Lead Time/Duration? Rural versus Urban? Criteria or Impacts? What s The Issue?

9 Solution? HeatRisk! What is it? Simple framework to build consistency and science into our messaging efforts & legacy products. Gives customers/partners flexibility to act when they need to. Still considered experimental. Simple Color Scale Kind Of like For Heat Applicable to All Areas How does it work? Puts NWS forecast temperatures into a climatological context based on location & time of year. Considers duration of expected heat. Humidity is indirectly accounted for in elevated low temperatures.

10 How Does HeatRisk Work?

11 How Does HeatRisk Work? Start with Normals

12 How Does HeatRisk Work? Start with Normals Obtain Full PoR Data

13 How Does HeatRisk Work? Start with Normals Obtain Full PoR Data Determine 95 th Percentile Using

14 How Does HeatRisk Work? Start with Normals Obtain Full PoR Data Determine 95 th Percentile Using Calculate Red Base Level From Normals Red Level is Red Base or 95 th Percentile

15 How Does HeatRisk Work? Start with Normals Obtain Full PoR Data Determine 95 th Percentile Using Calculate Red Base Level From Normals Red Level is Red Base or 95 th Percentile Yellow Level Based on Collaboration w/cdc

16 How Does HeatRisk Work? Yellow Level Paired temperatures across the country with CDC data to extract inflection points at which any impacts begin to occur. MaxT Based on ~300 CONUS stations. Expanding to 1,000+.

17 How Does HeatRisk Work? Start with Normals Obtain Full PoR Data Determine 95 th Percentile Using Calculate Red Base Level From Normals Red Level is Red Base or 95 th Percentile Yellow Level Based on Collaboration w/cdc Orange Split Between Red/Yellow Similar for MinT.

18 How Does HeatRisk Work? 4,000+ Stations

19 How Does HeatRisk Work?

20 How Does HeatRisk Work?

21 How Does HeatRisk Work?

22 How Does HeatRisk Work?

23 How Does HeatRisk Work?

24 How Does HeatRisk Work?

25 How Does HeatRisk Work? OSU PRISM Normals ~4500 Stations HeatRisk Product Daily MaxT and MinT Heat Impact Levels

26 Accessing HeatRisk

27 Historical HeatRisk v1.5 Plots Online Soon!

28 Historical HeatRisk 2012 NWS Chicago Excessive Heat Warning July 5-6, 2012 Chicago, IL

29 HeatRisk & Messaging/DSS

30 HeatRisk As Guidance

31 Heat Wave June 2017 Nearly 350 (250) daily MaxT (MinT) temperature records were tied and almost 800 (800) were broken across the West. Impacts: power disruptions, flight cancelations, and an increase in heat morbidity/mortality. In Maricopa County, AZ alone (location of Phoenix), roughly 50 heat-related deaths occurred.

32 Heat Wave June 2017 HeatRisk & NWS Alerts Note Excellent Coordination/Consistency Across the Southwest! EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HEAT ADVISORY

33 Partner Usage of HeatRisk

34 Moving Forward HeatRisk provides framework for flexible customer. Based on NWS official MaxT/MinT 7-day forecasts. Drastically improves NWS forecast & message consistency. For 2018, NWS Western Region incorporating HeatRisk into policy. On-going effort to nationalize. Further work underway with CDC.

35 HeatRisk NOAA/NWS Western Region Experimental HeatRisk Project Paul Iñiguez NOAA/NWS/WFO Phoenix Mike Staudenmaier NOAA/NWS/WRH/STID Bill Rasch NOAA/NWS/WFO Sacramento Chad Kahler NOAA/NWS/WRH/STID Mark Loeffelbein NOAA/NWS/WRH/STID Darren Van Cleave NOAA/NWS/WFO Salt Lake City Andrea Bair NOAA/NWS/WRH/ISD Michelle Mead NOAA/NWS/WFO Sacramento Early June 2017 Heat Event Early Sep 2017 Heat Event