Weekly Cotton Market Review

Transcription

1 Mp_cn812 Weekly Cotton Market Review Cotton and Tobacco Program Cotton Market News Division 3275 Appling Road Memphis, TN Vol. 99 No. 15 November 9, 2017 Inside this Issue Market Overview Price Support Spot Quotations ICE Futures A Index Southeastern Textile Mill Report South Central Southwestern Western Crop Production Ginnings Supply & Demand Pima Quotations Average quotations were virtually the same as the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service s Cotton and Tobacco Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-3 and 43-49, strength , uniformity ) in the seven designated markets averaged.94 cents per pound for the week ending Thursday, November 9, The weekly average was up from.92 last week, but down from 8.02 cents reported the corresponding period a year ago. Daily average quotations ranged from a high of 7.21 cents Monday, November to a low of.51 cents Tuesday, November 7. Spot transactions reported in the Daily Spot Cotton Quotations for the week ended November 9 totaled 2,244 bales. This compares to 38,785 bales reported last week and 48,093 spot transactions reported the corresponding week a year ago. Total spot transactions for the season were 179,951 bales compared to 150,995 bales the corresponding week a year ago. The ICE December settlement prices ended the week at 8.29 cents, compared to 9.08 cents last week. Cotton Market Reports Subscribe to this report Subscribe to all Cotton Market reports Sources: USDA, AMS, Cotton and Tobacco Program, 1/ Cotlook

2 Southeastern Markets Regional Summary Danny Pino Macon, GA Spot cotton trading was slow. Supplies were moderate. Demand was moderate. Producer offerings were light. Average local spot prices were steady. Harvest activity made slow progress in Alabama where overcast weather prevailed during the week with unseasonably hot and humid temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Early morning fog and scattered rainfall delayed fieldwork as damp conditions persisted in many areas. Fieldwork advanced with little interruption across Georgia and the Florida panhandle as mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions prevailed during the week. Dryland yields were reported from 800 to 1,100 pounds per acre and yields on irrigated acreage were reported at 900 to 1,400 pounds per acre. Yields varied as some areas missed timely moisture during the season and cooler temperatures during the fall reduced heat units, which allow the top crop to fully mature in later-planted fields. In the Carolinas and Virginia, mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions prevailed with daytime high temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s. Fieldwork advanced at a rapid pace without interruption. Gins accumulated backlogs of modules on gin yards and ginning continued without interruption. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service s Crop Progress report released November, cotton harvested was 7 percent completed in Virginia, 5 in the Carolinas, 58 in Georgia, and 57 percent completed in Alabama. Textile Mill Domestic mill buyers inquired for a moderate volume of color 41 and better, leaf 4 and better, and staple 34 and longer for second quarter 2018 delivery. No sales were reported. Reports indicated mill buyers were busy taking delivery of 2017-crop cotton. Most mills operated four to seven days. Yarn demand was moderate. Denim demand was lackluster. Demand through export channels was moderate. Indonesian mill buyers purchased a moderate volume of USDA Green Card Class, color 31, leaf 3, and staple 35 for first quarter 2018 shipment. Representatives for mills in Pakistan purchased a moderate volume of USDA Green Card Class color 41, leaf 4, and staple 35 and 3 for January through March shipment. Trading Even-running lots containing color 31, leaf 3, staple 37 and 38, mike 43-49, strength 28-30, and uniformity sold for around 500 points on ICE December futures, FOB car/truck, Georgia terms (Rule 5, compression charges paid, 30 days free storage). Mixed lots containing color mostly 21 and 31, leaf 2 and 3, staple 35-39, mike 43-49, strength 28-30, and uniformity sold for around 400 points on ICE December futures, same terms as above. A light volume of color mostly 31, leaf 2 and 3, staple 34, mike 49-52, strength 2-27, and uniformity sold for around 8.50 cents, same terms as above. 2

3 South Central Markets Regional Summary Jeff Carnahan Memphis, TN North Delta Spot cotton trading was moderate. Producers were steadily delivering previously contracted cotton. Supplies of available cotton were light. Demand was moderate. Average local spot prices were steady. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. A light volume of forward contracting was reported. Cold, windy, and cloudy weather prevailed during the week. A cold front brought fog and light drizzle throughout the week. Approximately 1 inch of rain was reported. Daytime temperatures were in the 50s to 70s. Overnight lows were in the 50s, but dropped into the 30s late week. The damp conditions delayed harvesting of the remaining cotton fields. Producers were concerned about the effectiveness of defoliants and the deterioration of fiber quality. Ginning continued without interruption, since most gins had large backlogs of modules on their yards. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service s Crop Progress report released November, harvesting in Arkansas was 88 percent completed, 89 in Missouri, and 71 percent in Tennessee. South Delta Spot cotton trading was moderate. Supplies of available cotton were light. Demand was moderate. Average local spot prices were steady. No trading of CCC-loan equities was reported. No forward contracting was reported. Warm, moist conditions early in the period gave way to much cooler temperatures late week. Daytime temperatures were in the 50s to 80s. Overnight lows were in the 40s to 0s. Up to 1 inch of rain was reported in most areas. Harvesting activities continued to be delayed throughout the region due to soft soils and saturated lint. Producers were concerned that the wet weather would adversely affect fiber quality, especially leaf and color grades. Producers reported yields from 900 to 1,300 pounds. Ginning advanced steadily. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service s Crop Progress report released November, harvesting was 98 percent completed in Louisiana, compared to 8 percent in Mississippi. Trading North Delta A moderate volume of mostly color 41 and better, leaf 4 and better, staple 35 and longer, mike averaging 48.2, strength averaging 31.0, and uniformity averaging 81.0 traded at around 250 points off ICE December futures, FOB car/truck (Rule 5, compression charges paid). A light volume of 2018-crop cotton with base quality color 41, leaf 4, and staple 34 was forward contracted, subject to government discounts with a premium paid for qualities better than the contract base quality. South Delta A moderate volume of mostly color 41 and better, leaf 4 and better, staple 35 and longer, mike averaging 48.2, strength averaging 31.0, and uniformity averaging 81.0 traded at around 250 points off ICE December futures, FOB car/truck (Rule 5, compression charges paid). 3

4 Southwestern Markets Regional Summary Jane Byers-Angle Lubbock, TX East Texas Spot cotton trading was active. Supplies and producer offerings were heavy. Demand was very good. Average local spot prices were steady. Producer interest in forward contracting was light. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. Foreign inquiries were heavy. Interest was best from China, Pakistan, and Turkey. Light rain was reported in south Texas that helped to refortify parched soils. Stalks were destroyed and producers fertilized fields. Ginning continued. In east Texas, rainfall mid-week interfered with hauling modules to the gin yards. Harvesting was finalized. Ginning progressed. Cold, clear conditions prevailed in Kansas with daytime temperatures in the low 30s to upper 50s, and nighttime lows mostly in the low 30s. Harvesting had begun, but stalled during the week to allow the fiber more time to mature. Some gins had begun to process bales, but not all gins were opened. Harvesting was about 30 percent completed in Oklahoma, according to local reports. Yields were reported at over 2 bales per acre from dryland fields, and 4 bales per acre from irrigated fields. West Texas Spot cotton trading was active. Supplies and producer offerings were heavy. Demand was very good. Average local spot prices were firm. Producer interest in forward contracting was light. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. Foreign inquiries were heavy. Interest was best from China, Pakistan, and Turkey. Overcast, humid weather prevailed with daytime temperature highs in the low 40s to low 70s. Harvesting progressed but was stalled mid-week for intermittent storms that brought three-fourths to one and three-fourths of an inch of rainfall. The Rolling Plains received heavier amounts of precipitation. Outside conditions were humid most of the reporting period and intermittently halted late-night harvesting activities to prevent excessive moisture from being stored in modules. Gin yards were inundated with modules and continued pressing services. According to local reports, dryland fields yielded up to 1.5 bales per acre and irrigated fields produced 2 to 3 bales per acre in the panhandle. Trading East Texas A moderate volume of color 32 and better, leaf 3 and 4, staple 35-37, mike 39-50, strength 27-29, and uniformity sold for around 3.00 cents per pound, FOB warehouse (compression charges not paid). In Oklahoma, a moderate volume of color 21 and 31, leaf 2 and 3, staple 37 and longer, mike 35-49, strength 30-33, and uniformity sold for around cents, FOB car/truck (compression charges not paid). A moderate volume of color 31 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 37-39, mike 31-40, strength 27-32, and uniformity 7-82 sold for around cents, same terms as above. West Texas A heavy volume of color 31 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 37 to 41, mike 35-51, strength 2-34, and uniformity sold for to cents per pound, FOB car/truck (compression charges not paid). A moderate volume of mostly color 21, leaf 2 and 3, staple 37 and longer, mike 35-42, strength averaging 29.9, and uniformity sold for around cents, same terms as above. A moderate volume of color 32 and better, leaf 2 and 3, staple 35 and longer, mike 38-44, strength 28-31, and uniformity sold for around.75 cents, same terms as above. 4

5 Photos Courtesy of: Jane Byers-Angle 5

6 Western Markets Regional Summary Maria Townsend Visalia, CA Desert Southwest (DSW) Spot cotton trading was slow. Supplies were light. Demand was moderate. Producers delivered 2017-crop cotton to the co-op, merchant marketing pools, or into the CCC-loan program. Average local prices were steady. No domestic mill activity was reported. Foreign mill inquiries were light. Sunny and mild conditions were the norm for Arizona. Harvesting and ginning were active in central Arizona and Safford. Producers were shredding stalks and prepared fields for winter plantings. Weather conditions were seasonable in New Mexico and El Paso, Texas. Temperatures were mostly in the 80s. Harvesting and ginning were active. Modules were transported to gin yards. San Joaquin Valley (SJV) Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies were light. Demand was moderate. Producers delivered 2017-crop cotton to the co-op, merchant marketing pools, or into the CCC-loan program. Average local spot prices were steady. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Foreign mill inquiries were slow. Traces of moisture were received early in the reporting period. Daytime temperatures were mostly in the 0s. A bigger rain event is in the near-term forecast. Harvesting neared completion. Local sources reported yields were off the average. In some cases as much as 200 pounds. Stalk shredding was active. Ginning continued without interruption. American Pima (AP) Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies were light. Demand was moderate. Average local spot prices were steady. Producers inquired for contracts. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity were reported. Foreign mill inquiries were moderate. Shippers price ideas were firm. Temperatures were in the 70s to 80s in Arizona, California, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Defoliation and harvesting activities were on-going for the region. Arizona industry sources reported yields were average and quality was good. Yields in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) were down from the average. In some cases as much as one bale off the average. Sources reported insect pressure and uneven growing conditions throughout the growing season. SJV quality was excellent. Ginning was active. Trading Desert Southwest A light volume of 2017-crop cotton color 11, leaf 1, and mostly staple 37 and longer, mike 35-42, strength averaging 31.8, and uniformity averaging 80. sold for around 200 points on ICE December futures, FOB warehouse. A heavy volume of 2017-crop Arizona cotton for contract base quality color 21, leaf 2, and staple 3 and longer was contracted at around 250 points on ICE December futures. No trading activity was reported. No trading activity was reported. San Joaquin Valley American Pima

7 2017 Crop Quality Southeast Quality Summary 2017-Crop Region Classing Office Bales Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Number of Gins Southeast Florence 424, Macon 804, Memphis 80, Southeast 1,309, South Central Quality Summary 2017-Crop Region Classing Office Bales Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Number Of Gins South Central Dumas 30, Memphis 925, Rayville 254, South Central 1,810, Southwest Quality Summary 2017-Crop Region Classing Office Bales Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Number Of Gins Southwest Abilene 17, Corpus Christi 1,804, Lamesa 25, Lubbock 417, Southwest 2,, Far West and American Pima Quality Summary 2017-Crop Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Region Classing Office Bales Far West Visalia 139, Far West 139, PIMA - Far West Visalia 135, Number Of Gins United States Upland United States Pima United States Quality Summary 2017-Crop 5,925, , Source: USDA, AMS, Cotton and Tobacco Program For complete Quality reports click here. 7

8 Supply & Demand The following information was excerpted from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released on November 9, 2017 This month s 2017/18 U.S. cotton estimates include higher production and ending stocks, as a smaller crop in the West is more than offset by gains in the Southwest and other regions. While the U.S. production forecast is raised 1 percent, to 21.4 million bales, domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are now estimated 300,000 bales higher at.1 million bales and, at 34 percent, are forecast at their highest share of use since 2008/09. The marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast at 3 cents per pound, 3 cents above the October estimate, reflecting prices to date. For complete Supply and Demand report click here. 8

9 Crop Production The following information was excerpted from the National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production report, released on November 9, 2017 All cotton production is forecast at 21.4 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from October and up 25 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 900 pounds per harvested acre, up 11 pounds from last month and up 33 pounds from last year. If realized, the cotton yield forecast for the Nation will be the highest yield on record. Upland cotton production is forecast at 20.7 million 480-pound bales, up 24 percent from 201. Pima cotton production, forecast at 727,000 bales, was carried forward from an earlier forecast. For complete Crop Production report click here. 9

10 Ginning For complete Ginnings report click here. 10

11 World market prices for upland cotton, in cents per pound, in effect from 12:01 a.m., EDT, Friday through midnight, EDT, Thursday Oct Oct Oct Oct 27 Nov Nov Nov 10-1 Adjusted world price 1/ Course count adjustment Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) Fine count adjustment Fine count adjustment / Color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-3 & 43-49, strength readings of grams per tex, length uniformity of percent. Source: Farm Service Agency, USDA. Description Outstanding sales Exports Total export commitments Marketing Years Week Mkt. Year Week - 3,958, ,700 2,224, ,300 -,183,100 - New sales 172, ,400 - Buy-backs and cancellations 3,900-13,100 - Net sales Sales next marketing year 18, ,300 15,00 449,700 31, ,08,100 1,897,700 Net sales of 205,300 running bales for 2017/2018 were down 2 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Pakistan (7,500 RB), Bangladesh (28,100 RB), Turkey (27,800 RB), Vietnam (24,200 RB, including 1,800 RB switched from China, 1,300 RB switched from Taiwan, and decreases of 2,00 RB), and China (11,500 RB, including decreases of 8,800 RB). Reductions were reported for Japan (1,400 RB) and Nicaragua (300 RB). For 2018/2019, net sales of 31,200 RB were reported for China (24,200 RB), Pakistan (4,800 RB), and Japan (2,200 RB). Exports of 124,300 RB were up 43 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were reported to Vietnam (27,800 RB), China (21,400 RB), Mexico (20,400 RB), South Korea (11,900 RB), and Thailand (9,300 RB). Net sales ofpima totaling 13,400 RB for 2017/2018 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (9,900 RB), Pakistan (1,100 RB), India (700 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), and Taiwan (400 RB). Exports of 4,000 RB were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were India (2,000 RB), Thailand (400 RB), Japan (400 RB), and Peru (300 RB). Optional Origin Sales: The current optional origin outstanding balance of 1,500 RB is for Indonesia. Through November 03, 201 Through November 02, 2017 Mkt. Year 8,505,800 Exports for Own Account: New exports for own account totaling 500 RB were reported to Taiwan. Exports to Taiwan (500 RB) and Indonesia (300 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales. Decreases of 500 RB were reported for Indonesia. The current outstanding balance of 1,500 RB is for Indonesia (41,100 RB), Taiwan (13,100 RB), India (3,800 RB), Vietnam (1,400 RB), South Korea (1,100 RB), Bangladesh (500 RB), and Pakistan (500 RB) ,200 Source: Export Sales Reporting Division, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA. NOTE: Data may not add due to rounding. November 9,

12 Number of Bales in Certificated Stocks Delivery Points Stocks as of Awaiting Review Non-Rain Grown Cotton Dallas/FT. Worth, TX Galveston, TX 19, Greenville, SC Houston, TX 5, Memphis, TN 1, Total 41, Spot quotations are in cents per pound for cotton equal to the Official Standards, net weight, in mixed lots, compressed, FOB car/truck. SOUTHEAST NORTH DELTA SOUTH DELTA DESERT SOUTHWEST Staple EAST TEXAS-OKLAHOMA WEST TEXAS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY Staple MIKE DIFFERENCES - POINTS PER POUND SOUTH- NORTH SOUTH E. TX WEST DESERT SJ EAST DELTA DELTA OK Mike Ranges TEXAS SW VALLEY AVG & Below Base Base & Above STRENGTH DIFFERENCES UNIFORMITY DIFFERENCES SOUTH- NORTH SOUTH E. TX Grams WEST DESERT SJ SOUTH- NORTH SOUTH E. TX Unit WEST DESERT SJ EAST DELTA DELTA OK per tex TEXAS SW VALLEY AVG. EAST DELTA DELTA OK TEXAS SW VALLEY AVG & below Base Base & above & above November 9,

13 American Pima quotations are for cotton equal to the Official Standards, net weight, in mixed lots, UD Free, FOB warehouse. 1/ AMERICAN PIMA SPOT QUOTATIONS Color Leaf Staple The current Pima spot quotations represent prices from local sales, export sales, and offerings last reported on October 11, / Pima spot quotations for color-leaf-staple combinations not quoted will be included as sales of those qualities which are reported. Range & Above Level Prep Other (Grams per Tex) Range Mike Diff. 2 & Below Strength & Above & Below Diff Extraneous Matter Diff. November 9,