Crop / Weather Update

Transcription

1 Crop / Weather Update

2 Corn Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent Corn condition this week is the same as the last two weeks in the good/excellent category, which is 68%. This year s rating is still above last year s and the 10-year average at 66% and 62%, respectively. This week s 68% came in one point above industry expectations. As for the individual states, eight states had the same good/excellent rating two weeks in a row. However, there are several of these states whose good/excellent rating never made it over 50%, such as Kansas at 47% good/excellent, North Carolina at 33%, Texas at 29% and Missouri at 28%. On the flip side, some states have consistently had very high ratings with little to no change, and these include Tennessee at 75% good/excellent, Minnesota at 76%, Kentucky at 79%, Illinois and Nebraska at 80% and Ohio at 83%. Since we are so far into harvest at this point, corn condition really only had one big change, which occurred in Pennsylvania, down 6 points this week to 69% good/excellent, and they are also behind on their harvest this year as compared to the five-year average.

3 Corn Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 Corn harvest this week is coming in at 49% complete, which is 3 points below the 10-year average, but still 12 points above last year s slow progress. Industry analysts expected corn harvest to come in at 52% this week, so the reported number is slightly lower. States that are considerably behind their 5-year average for harvest completion at this point in October are: Iowa 9 points behind, Kansas 6 points behind, North Dakota 4 points behind, Pennsylvania 7 points behind and South Dakota 8 points behind. On the flip side, there are states where corn producers are ahead of their 5-year average in completing harvest, and those are Illinois ahead 16 points, Missouri ahead 11 points, Indiana ahead 14 points, Ohio and Wisconsin both ahead 6 points and Michigan and Colorado both ahead 5%. Colorado made exceptional progress this week, as they were 7% behind their average last week, and now they are 5% ahead.

4 Cotton Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent USDA analysts rated the U.S. cotton crop as being 34% good-to-excellent as of October 21, which continued the 2018 pattern of falling well below year-ago and 10-year average norms (at 56% and 46%, respectively). The decline was largely in keeping with the historical pattern late in the growing season, so it likely surprised very few. We doubt this factor will significantly affect prices, especially with the market now seeming focused upon the potential damage the huge Hurricane Willa (already a Category 5) may cause to the West Texas cotton crop if/when it travels from the Pacific Ocean across Mexico to the northeast. Most (seven) state readings were unchanged from last week, while improvements and declines in condition matched at four apiece. The Georgia reading was unchanged at just 16% good-excellent after being devastated by Hurricane Michael the week prior, while those for Alabama and South Carolina inched upward. The Texas reading slipped one percentage point to 26% good-excellent.

5 Cotton Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% As was to be expected, the cotton harvest advanced several percentage points last week. The latest reading, at 39% complete marked an increase of 7% from the week prior, thereby splitting the difference between the comparable 2017 rate (up 6% to 36%) and the 10-year average (up 8% to 35% complete). Thus, it s slightly ahead of normal and unlikely to significantly affect futures values. Picking in the Delta states and Missouri has been comparatively active, with the latter still leading the nation at 81% complete. Arkansas s harvest is 77% done, while Louisiana picking is 75% complete. The big Texas harvest advanced 5% over the week prior, which put it 9% ahead of the five-year norm. Still, this leaves a huge of amount of cotton vulnerable to a big tropical storm.

6 Soybean Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent /3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 USDA saw national soybean crop ratings unchanged in the last week of the 2018 crop year at 66% rated in either Good or Excellent condition. This was unchanged from the previous week and was in-line with expectations. The slow pace of harvest seen this year has given us a longer period of crop ratings than typical years, so historical perspective is lacking this week. We would note that it is normal for crop ratings to be steady at this stage in the growing season, but it may be somewhat of a surprise this year given the anecdotal reports that recent wetness has led to higher damage in pockets of mature soybean crops. Looking at the state-level data, ratings were mostly steady in the key states. Six states showed declining ratings weekover-week with North Carolina showing the greatest reductions lingering in the wake of Hurricane Michael.

7 Soybean Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 According to the USDA, the national soybean harvest advanced 15% this past week to surpass the half-way point at 53%-harvested. This was somewhat faster than expected given the lagging pace of corn harvest, but remains 14% behind last year s pace. The greatest advances were made in Minnesota (24%), Michigan (20%), South Dakota (19%) and Iowa (18%). Comparing this year s pace with 2017, we see that harvest is lagging the furthest behind in North Dakota (34%), Kansas (30%), Michigan (29%) and South Dakota (28%). Fifteen of the eighteen states surveyed are showing harvest lagging last year s pace with only Tennessee and Kentucky running slightly ahead. Only Indiana is on-pace with the 2017 harvest. We would expect to see progress ramp up in the next report given mostly open forecasts across the major summer cropping areas this week.

8 Winter Wheat Planting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 The national winter wheat seeding advanced by 7 percentage points in the week ending October 21 to reach 72% planted. Drier conditions across the PNW and the eastern Corn Belt aided in the largest weekly advances. Progress was the greatest in Michigan (25%), Indiana (19%), Oregon (19%) and Ohio (19%.), while wet conditions in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas limited additional seeding in major HRW areas. Comparing the current year s pace with recent history, we see that progress is lagging last year s pace the greatest in Michigan (-21%), Illinois (-14%), North Carolina (-13%) and Oregon (-11%). While winter wheat seeding was relatively slow going in the past week, the 53% of the crop has emerged, which is up 9 percentage points from the previous week. Most of the key wheat growing states are running ahead of last year s pace and soil moisture levels are considerably improved. A drying pattern across much of the country this week is expected to allow for quick seeding progress for those farmers lucky enough to already have their crops in the bins.

9 Weather Most areas of the Midwest had a good week for harvesting last week. The northern Plains was dry or had almost no rain. The central and eastern Midwest in addition to the Southeast had light rains on average. If it were not for the excessive rains during the first half of the month that left fields pretty muddy to the begin the week, we may have supposed harvesting would have been even further along. Corn harvesting added 10 points to 49% complete whereas soybeans added 15 points to reach 53% complete. The latter still lags normal by a week or so, but that was good progress given the early aforementioned obstacle of needing to wait for soils to firm somewhat before making a big push. Heavy rains in Texas were detrimental to cotton, which saw its total poor to very poor rating increasing to 41% from 37%.

10 Weather The map displays Monday s seven-day rainfall forecast to next Monday. The forecast map projects heavy rains over central to southern Texas and Louisiana. The central Atlantic Coast is also threatened with excess rains. There is the potential for light to moderate rains in the central and southern Plains. Winter wheat seeding progress is lagging by a few days, and the rains may cause some more limited delays. For the central and eastern Midwest, only limited rainfall is in the forecast, which implies more favorable harvest progress there.

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