Assessing the Risk of Asian Carp Presence in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS)
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1 Assessing the Risk f Asian Carp Presence in the Chicag Area Waterway System (CAWS) A Prbabilistic Interpretatin f edna Mnitring Results Schultz, M.T., Cerc, C.F., Skahill, B.E., Lance, R.F., Nel, M.R., DiJseph, P.K., Smith, D.L., Guilfyle, M.P. Internatinal Cnference n Aquatic Invasive Species (ICAIS) Winnipeg, Manitba April 1-14, 215
2 Acknwledgements Envirnmental DNA Calibratin Study Interagency cllabratin: USACE, USGS, USFWS US EPA Great Lakes Restratin Initiative (GLRI) Asian Carp Reginal Crdinating Cmmittee (ACRCC) US Army Crps f Engineers (USACE) Chicag District. Final reprt available n the ACRCC website: ALL_ACRCC_Framewrk _Item_2.6.3.Prbabilistic_Mdel_12314.pdf. 2 Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
3 Asian Carp Bighead carp Hypphthalmichthys nbilis Silver carp Hypphthalmichthys mlitrix Invasive species Established in Mississippi & Missuri River Basins. Out-cmpete native fish Efficient filter feeders, planktn Undermine fd webs Baerwaldt, K., A. Bensn, and K. Irns Asian Carp Distributin in Nrth America. Reprt t the Asian Carp Reginal Crdinating Cmmittee, April 213. (updated April 214) Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
4 Illinis River Basin Asian Carp & the CAWS Highest ppulatin density in wrld. Adult ppulatin frnt at Brandn Rad Lck & Dam. Ptential access t Lake Michigan via the CAWS. Electric fish barrier Blcks access t Lake Michigan. Operated by USACE. ~ 35 miles frm Lake Michigan. Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
5 There are tw frms f Asian carp surveillance. Cnventinal fish sampling Effrt (21-14): 19,388 man hurs Electrfishing: hurs Gill/trammel net: 524 km Catch: 1 bighead (6/21), silver carp Envirnmental DNA (edna) DNA fund in envirnmental samples. 5,5 tw-liter water samples (29-12). Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
6 edna is detected in water samples using plymerase chain reactin (PCR). PCR is psitive r negative. N cncentratins Detectin rates (29 212) Bighead carp: 43 / 5,522 (< 1%). Silver carp: 236 / 5,53 (4.3%). Psitive water samples Detectins widely distributed ver space and time. Silver carp edna samples Negative Psitive Electric Barrier Evanstn Lake Calumet Chicag Lake Michigan 6 Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
7 Three factrs cnfund interpretatin and these are the fcus f this study. 1. Quantity f edna is unknwn. Quantify the amunt f edna in the system. 2. Surces f edna ther than live fish identified. Birds, bats and barges, CSOs, fishing nets, sediment and inflws frm Lake Michigan. Characterize primary & secndary surces f edna in CAWS. 3. Results f Asian carp surveillance are in cnflict. Develp a Bayesian netwrk fr prbabilistic inference. 7 Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
8 TARGET_SHEDUNITS (kg) t 1 1 t 5 5 t 1 1 t 5 5 t 1 1 t t 5 5 t t 1 1 t t t t 2 2 t 3 3 t 4 4 t 5 5 t 6 6 t 7 7 t 8 8 t 9 9 t 1 1 t t t t t t t t t t ± 65 GEAR_TYPE CN 33.3 EF 33.3 ALL 33.3 SPECIES PRESENT TRUE 39.8 FALSE ±.49 ACTUAL SHEDUNITS (kg) 6.2 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ± 52 UPSTREAM LOCAL DOWNSTREAM ABOVE BARRIER ENTIRE CAWS SEARCH_AREA LURK_REACH NSC 5.13 CR CRM 4.6 CR BCR.32 MXZ.49 CR3 4.6 CR CR FBA.18 CR6.93 CRA 7.39 CRB.81 CLK 1.73 LKC 3.54 CRU 1.1 CRV.25 CRD 7.16 CRE 1.1 SHEDRATE (Cpies/kg/hur) t 5e e6 t 7.5e e6 t 1e e7 t 1.25e e7 t 1.5e e7 t 2e e7 t 2.5e e7 t 3e e7 t 4e e7 t 5e e7 ± 96 EQUIV_NOM_SHEDUNITS (kg) 6.2 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ± 92 K_FAST ±.16 FAST_CONC (cpies/kg/l) t 1e-6 1e-6 t 1e-5 1e-5 t 1e-4 1e-4 t 1e-3.1 t t t > ±.14 SEASON GATES OPEN 37.1 GATES CLOSED 62.9 PRIM_NOM_CONC (cpies/kg/l) 39.9 t 1e e-6 t 1e e-5 t 1e e-4 t t t t t ±.27 TOT_PRIM_CONC (cpies/l) 77.8 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t 7.789e ± K_SLOW ±.33 SLOW_CONC (cpies/kg/l) 41.2 t 1e e-6 t 1e e-5 t 1e e-4 t 1e t t t > ±.22 FRACT.65 t t t t t ±.87 BRD_ACTIVE TRUE 5. FALSE 5. BRD_SLR (cpies/m^2/day) 5. t t t t 1e5.33 1e5 t 1e ± 4 LMB_SLR (cpies/l) 5. t t t t t 1.29 TOT_SEC_CONC (cpies/l) 34.9 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ± 51 TOTAL_CONC (cpies/l) 27.2 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t 7.161e ± ± 15 LMB_ACTIVE TRUE 5. FALSE 5. CSO_SLR (cpies/m^3) 5. t t 1e e5 t 1e e6 t 1e e7 t 1e ± 19 FIN_SLR (cpies/1 m) 5. t 1e8 + 1e8 t 1e9.16 1e9 t 1e e1 t 1e e11 t 1e e1 ± 2.2e1 FDB_SLR (cpies/bat-day) 5. t 1e8 + 1e8 t 1e e9 t 1e e1 t 1e e11 t 1e e9 ± 9.7e9 NAV_SLR (cpies/vessel hur) 5. t 1e7 + 1e7 t 1e8.13 1e8 t 1e e9 t 1e1.46 1e1 t 1e11 + Bighead Silver CSO_ACTIVE TRUE 5. FALSE e8 ± 5.1e8 SPECIES 1 FOPH 66.7 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ±.35 FIN_ACTIVE TRUE 5. FALSE 5. TRUE FALSE FDB_ACTIVE ALL_ACTIVE TRUE 33.3 UNCERTAIN 33.3 FALSE 33.3 NAV_ACTIVE TRUE 5. FALSE Prbability f edna detectin using PCR Secndary Surces Fate &Transprt Mdel fr CAWS edna Kinetics & Shedding Rates.9 Prbability f Detectin Silver carp Bighead carp Cncentratin (cpies/l) Infer edna Cncentratin Estimate Lading Rates F&T Mdel Prductin Runs Prbability Mass Functin Lake Calumet (212) Cncentratin (cpies/l).9.8 pdf cdf Cmmercial navigatin lading rate parameter (edna cpies/vessel hur) edna Mnitring & Fishing Effrt Negative Psitive Evansville Chicag Lake Michigan Bayes factr 1, Sensitivity Analysis Species = Silver, Search area = Upstream, Gear = All, Target shedding units = 5-1 kg, FOPH = -.5 Gates pen Gates clsed Decisive evidence in favr Strng evidence in favr Substantial evidence in favr Barely wrth mentining Evidence against p(all_active = True) p(fish present ) Statistical Inference Seasn: Gates Open & Target Shedding Units: 1-11 MT TRUE FALSE PRIOR Fractin f mnitring samples testing psitive fr edna Bayesian Netwrk Mdel Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld Electric Barrier Lake Calumet
9 Ambiguity abut edna surce is reslved prbabilistically. Bayesian inference: Prir prbability is updated t a psterir prbability after evidence is bserved. p ( θ e) = p Θ ( e θ ) p( θ ) p( e θ ) p( θ ) Hypthesis, θ :Target species is present. Evidence, e: Cnventinal sampling effrt Fractin f water samples testing psitive fr edna Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
10 TARGET_SHEDUNITS t 1 1 t 5 5 t 1 1 t 5 5 t 1 1 t t 5 5 t t 1 1 t t t t 2 2 t 3 3 t 4 4 t 5 5 t 6 6 t 7 7 t 8 8 t 9 9 t 1 1 t t t t t t t t t t ± 65 SPECIES_PRESENT TRUE 41.2 FALSE ±.49 NSC CR1 CRM CR2 BCR MXZ CR3 CR4 CR5 FBA CR6 CRA CRB CLK LKC CRU CRV CRD CRE ACTUAL_SHEDUNITS 58.8 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ± 53 SEARCH_AREA UPSTREAM LOCAL DOWNSTREAM ABOVE BARRIER ENTIRE CAWS LURK_REACH CN EF ALL GEAR_TYPE K_FAST ±.16 PRIM_FAST_CONC 48.4 t 1e-6.2 1e-6 t 1e e-5 t 1e e-4 t 1e t t t > ±.22 SHEDDING_RATE t 5e e6 t 7.5e e6 t 1e e7 t 1.25e e7 t 1.5e e7 t 2e e7 t 2.5e e7 t 3e e7 t 4e e7 t 5e e7 ± 96 EQUIV_NOM_SHEDUNITS 58.8 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ± 5 SEASON GATES OPEN GATES CLOSED PRIM_SLOW_CONC 48.4 t 1e e-6 t 1e-5.8 1e-5 t 1e e-4 t 1e t t t > ± 1.5 PRIM_NOM_CONC 48.4 t 1e-6 + 1e-6 t 1e-5 + 1e-5 t 1e e-4 t t t t t ± 1.7 TOT_PRIM_CONC 8.8 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t 1.988e ± 24 FRACT.65 t t t t t ±.87 K_SLOW ±.33 TOTAL_CONC 4.4 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t 2.35e ± 25 TRUE FALSE ALL_ACTIVE TOT_SEC_CONC 5. t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ± 98 Bighead Silver SPECIES FOPH 7.2 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t ±.27 Hypthesis Species present Evidence Fishing effrt edna psitive rate Cnditinals Target species Hydrlgic seasn Search area Shedding units Gear type Variables Shedding rate Degradatin rate Fractin fast All active Hydrdynamic simulatin 1 Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
11 Inference is accmplished using a twstage updating prcess. 1. Unifrm prir prbability n target species presence. 2. Apply cnventinal fishing effrt. 3. Apply fractin f psitive water samples. Prbability Seasn = Gates Clsed; Mass = tns A B C FOPH POSTERIOR = TRUE POSTERIOR = FALSE PRIOR = TRUE Fractin f mnitring samples testing psitive fr edna Influence f edna Evidence A: Reduces prbability. B: Increases prbability, species less likely t be present. C: Increases prbability, species mre likely t be present. Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
12 Results: Lake Calumet (LKC) & Nrth Shre Channel (NSC) Silver carp Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
13 Silver Carp, tns Gates Clsed (Oct. 15 June 1) Lake Calumet (LKC) Nrth Shre Channel (NSC) B: Gates Clsed, t TRUE FALSE PRIOR B: Gates Clsed, t TRUE FALSE PRIOR p(species_present ) FOPH =.154 p(species_present ) FOPH = Fractin f mnitring samples testing psitive fr edna Fractin f mnitring samples testing psitive fr edna Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
14 Cnclusins Detectin f edna by itself is nt enugh - cnsider hydrlgy, hydrdynamics, seasn, secndary surces, fishing effrt, target mass. edna mnitring can be mre useful in sme places than thers. Detectin f edna can increase r decrease the prbability f target species presence. If live fish were the nly explanatin fr edna, there wuld be 4-6 tns f silver carp distributed thrughut the CAWS. Aim has been t imprve quality f interpretatin & expand the types f infrmatin available frm edna mnitring results. 14 Innvative slutins fr a safer, better wrld
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