Proximal hazards Near source hazards can develop rapidly

Transcription

1 Proximal hazards Near source hazards can develop rapidly 30 minutes or less warning time too short to detect the activity, give warning and take action Pyroclastic flows Ballistics Lava flows Health Impacts Proximal hazards are acute: Burns Blunt force Burial

2 Hazards in proximal areas: Lava flows Hot, dense, slow moving, destructive Lava domes Collapse producing PFs USGS Lava flows likely in areas between the charismatic Cascade Peaks of Oregon and southern Washington. USGS USGS

3 Hazards in proximal areas: Unzen, Japan, 1993 USGS San Francisco Leon, Chiapas, MX, 1982 PHOTOGRAPH BY ULET IFANSASTI/GETTY IMAGES Pyroclastic flows Hot, fast, dense, mobile, destructive, deadly. Sinabung, Sumatra, RI, 2014 Glacier Peak, MSH, Mount Hood, Three Sisters, Newberry

4 Kopeng townsite, Merapi Volcano, Indonesia; devastated by pyroclastic flow and surge - ~2300 houses destroyed; 10,000-20,000 lives saved by warnings and evacuations

5 Proximal intermidiate hazards:lahars Lahars occur in valleys that start on the volcano; generally not all valleys affected at once Know which rivers start on your volcano Ask scientists where the most likely vent area will be and what rivers it might affect Have a plan to deal with reservoirs on potentially affected rivers Know how transportation may be impacted

6 1985 lahar tragedy in Columbia Hazards identified, warnings issued, but communications failed and 23,000 died 60 million m 3 lahar hit Armero 90 minutes after eruption November 13, 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano Health Impacts for Lahars: o Burial o Drowning o Blunt force o Exposure

7 Town of Chaiten, Chile Post-eruption lahars 6 August 2010 Mount Meager BC Non-eruptive debris avalanche and lahar Mobilization of sediment by intense rain piquenewsmagazine.com Wet landslides Non-eruptive triggers for debris flows include heavy rain, sector or flank collapse, lake breach, etc. Mount Baker, Mount Rainier, Mount Adams Montserrat, BWI, 1995-present

8 Landslide at Mount Meager, B.C. 03:27 PDT 6 August 2010 Moderate size debris avalanche (~50 MCM) traveled ~12 km (7 mi). Deposit dammed Meager Ck. for 19hrs and impounded enough water that town of Pemberton (pop.1500) 65 km (39 mi) downstream was evacuated the following night as a precaution. This event was probably the biggest avalanche in the Cascades (except MSH 1980) in several thousand years.

9 SR530 (Oso) slide, 2014 USGS The SR530 slide quickly transformed into a debris flow similar in many ways to a lahar. The volume was about 8 x 10 6 meters. Imagine the scope of the SAR/R resulting from a lahar 100 times this volume covering an entire drainage.

10 Distal Hazards: Tephra (ash) Tephra moves in the direction(s) of and at the speed(s) of the wind How far downwind are you (today)? In what direction? Ash fall affects more people and facilities than any other volcano hazard, up to 500 km from volcano.

11 A distal volcano may affect you the most Tephra (ash) can affect communities far from source

12 What is Volcanic ash? Volcanic ash is volcanic rock, glass, and mineral fragments less than 2 mm in diameter. A highly abrasive silicate material. Hardness of a pocket knife. A substantial fraction can be less than 10 µm (PM10). Fine fraction increases with distance from the volcano Ash particle, 1980 Mount St. Helens Fresh ash typically is coated with acids (HCl, HF, H 2 SO 4 ) condensed in the eruption plume.

13 Impacts of volcanic ash falls versus thickness Less than 1 mm Irritant to lungs and eyes Airports and air traffic closed Road visibility and traction affected 1-5 mm Initial crop damage Electrical distribution flashover, equipment damage Clogged sewage systems

14 Impacts of volcanic ash falls versus thickness mm Burial of forage and low crops Major urban ash removal Transmission line flashovers

15 Impacts of volcanic ash falls versus thickness mm Some roof collapse if ash wet Severe damage to trees Many power lines down >300 mm Rabaul, PNG, 1994 Heavy kill of vegetation, livestock, and aquatic life Major roof collapse Loading and breakage of large power lines Roads impassable Clark AFB, Philippines, 1991

16 Health Effects of Volcanic ash fall Respiratory effects Nasal and throat irritation Airway irritation, sometimes severe bronchitic effect on those with pre-existing chest complaints Most at risk are persons with asthma or COPD Eye symptoms Conjunctivitis Corneal abrasion Skin irritation Worst when ash is fresh and acidic volcanoes.usgs.gov\ash

17 Health Effects of Volcanic ash fall Indirect health effects Power grid Flashover on transmission and distribution systems Water supply Surface source, catchment systems, clean up Sanitation Filter systems clog, turbidity, sewers clogged Animal health Digestive disorders, fluorosis Road accidents Poor visibility, poor traction Roof accidents Injuries and death from falls Overall health impacts generally minor, but the experience will cause general anxiety

18 Factors that determine severity of impacts Total amount of ash accumulated Amount of fine fraction <10µm Frequency and duration of exposure Meteorological conditions Common misperceptions and myths Roofs will collapse: True only in areas nearest the volcano and then only in large explosive eruptions. Silicosis: Few longitudinal studies, but no confirmed cases of silicosis related to volcanic ash. Exposures are typically short duration. Poison gases: Very localized hazard, mainly CO 2. Fluorosis: Can be an issue with catchment water systems and livestock, but rare. USAF

19 What can be done? Prepare. Know your information sources Limit Driving Eye protection, avoid wearing contact lenses Use Dust masks (N95 standard) Use single point of entry to buildings Check and replace filters on HVAC, engines, etc.

20 Information about ash impacts Many more resources since

21 How will I know what to prepare for? New USGS product: Ash3d Dispersion and Sedimentation model Source Parameters Dispersion animation product for enroute aviation sector, using ~5% of erupted mass for long range dispersal. Mature development phase, in testing with National Weather Service. Distrubution TBD.

22 Map of ash fall distribution and thickness Source Parameters Sedimentation product for ground sector. Same source model run as previous slide. Arrival times at specified coordinates can be calculated.

23 Volcano Notification Service (VNS) Give it try!

24 In North America hazardous eruptions can be termed low probability high consequence events. How can we stay current on the hazards and consequences of volcanic activity? Maintain readiness? Globally eruptions are common, about 70/yr, and dangerous eruptions occur annually. The scientific community maintains much institutional knowledge about active volcanism, but the science is only part of the story. Emergency managers, first responders, health practitioners, and NGOs in various locales have ample experience, but it does not seem to travel well.

25 2014: VDAP s 28th Year A partnership between USAID and USGS: International assistance to prevent volcanic eruptions from becoming volcanic disasters Infrastructure Crisis Response Training Volcano hazard science Sinabung Taal Laguna del Maule Java 25 major crisis responses since 1986 Infrastructure (& institutions) built in >12 countries Helped partners save 10,000 s of lives : >60 infrastructure missions, ~20 on-site crisis responses, dozens of remote responses, 15 countries

26 Indonesia U.S. Partnership in Volcano Hazards Mitigation Krakatau: 36,000 (1883) Indonesia: nation with greatest volcanic risk 129 volcanoes, 80 historically active ~3.3 million people live <10 km from volcanoes ~146,000 volcano fatalities since 1800 AD Each year: ~ ½ million residents at risk from eruptions ~100 M airline passengers at risk ~10 episodes of significant unrest ~5 eruption crises in populous areas Kelut: 10,000 (1586); 5,100 (1919) Tambora: 92,000 (1815) Awu: 3,200 (1711); 2,806 (1856); 1,500 (1892) Galunggung: 4,000 (1822) Merapi: 1,300 (1930); 380 (2010) Agung 1,100 (1963)

27 1 February 2014; Eruption & pyroclastic flow to 4.5 km. 16 killed at Sukamariah (2.7 km from the summit) and within the prohibited zone, which extended to 5 km Sinabung Volcano, North Sumatra, Indonesia 1 Feb 2014 Photo by Sutanta Adiya/AFP/Getty Images More than 17,000 people within 5 km of summit evacuated beginning December 2013

28 Upcoming opportunity Eighth Cities on Volcanoes conference in Yogyakarta, Java, Indonesia Goal of the conference series is to bring scientific and emergency management and related communities together to share best practices of volcanic risk management. Indonesia has extensive volcanic crisis management experience to share, with Merapi Volcano playing an important role in local culture as a result of a very long history of coexistence. As a participant of CoV 8 you will benefit from comparing those recent experiences to others worldwide, and Indonesia also offers many excellent options for volcanic workshops and field excursions.

29 Colombia: Eruption simulations involving the public Federal, +2 States, +16 municipalities, thousands of citizens carried a day-long response and evacuation exercise. Since 1985 Colombia has developed a culture of preparedness. Foto Duvan Zuluaga LA PATRIA Foto Duvan Zuluaga LA PATRIA

30 2013 U.S. Colombia Bi-National Exchange Nevado del Ruiz Mount Rainier

31 US-Colombia Bi-National Exchange, 2013 Volcano Hazards Exchange involved US emergency managers, planners, and scientists involved with volcano hazards at Mount Rainier, USA, and Colombian counterparts with similar responsibilities for volcano hazards at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia. Exchange began with trip by the US delegation to Colombia, August 2013, to learn about Nevado del Ruiz and on-going hazard mitigation efforts there, followed by a visit to the Mount Rainier area in Washington State by the Colombian delegation September 2013.

32 Bi-National Exchange Agencies USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance; US Geological Survey Cascades Volcano Observatory; National Park Service; Washington State Emergency Management Division; Washington State Department of Health; Pierce County Department of Emergency Management; Pierce County Economic Development Council; Whatcom County Department of Emergency Management; Orting Valley Fire and Rescue Colombia National Unit for Disaster Risk Management; Geological Survey of Colombia; Volcanological and Seismological Observatory of Manizales; Departmental Councils Disaster Risk Management in the departments of Caldas and Tolima; Caldas Sectional Civil Defense; Fire Department of Manizales; Sectional Red Cross in Colombia Tolima

33 Nevado del Ruiz 1985 Eruption Nov. 1985: Snowmelt feeds lahars (mudflows) that destroy towns of Armero, Chichiná, and smaller communities with sudden loss of ~23,000 people. Colombians revamp their volcano mitigation and warning system e.g., many Colombians involved in recent lahar-evacuation drill. US scientists participate in aftermath of 1985 disaster, and note similarity of Nevado del Ruiz setting to Mount Rainier and other US volcanoes. 1990s to present: In the US, scientists form inter-agency work groups and assemble coordination plans with officials, focusing on lahar threat on ice-clad Cascade volcanoes. Nevado del Ruiz used as prime example of the threat USAID funds eye-opening inter-country exchange visits for Colombian and US officials.

34 Bi-National Exchange Practical Outcomes in US communities: Mount Rainier US participants received eye-opening visit to Armero and Manizales, which renewed attention on hazards and potential for mass casualties and severe economic disruption. Marta Calvache's public lectures in 2 towns on flanks of Mt. Rainier garnered attention for Rainier hazards issues and made local officials more receptive to hazard discussions. Current efforts underway: Washington State Emergency Management Division is motivated to complete roadside educational signs about lahar hazards to be placed in communities at risk evacuation routes updated, and new ones created. Fire & Rescue unit in town near Mt. Rainier officially adopted Manizales and Armero Bomberos as sister fire departments. US sending surplus equipment to Colombia, Fire & Rescue staff and their families setting example of preparedness for broader community, evacuation plans being improved, coordination of firstresponder plans with adjacent fire departments.