EARTHQUAKE CATALOG, STATISTICS, SEISMICITY SMOOTHING & PSHA
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1 EARTHQUAKE CATALOG, STATISTICS, SEISMICITY SMOOTHING & PSHA WAHYU TRIYOSO GLOBAL GEOPHYSICS DIVISION GEOPHYSICS ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT BANDUNG INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Some basic knowledge behind PSHA Revision Map of 2017
2 PSHA : An Overview. Schematic illustration of the basic five steps in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Identify earthquake sources. Characterize the distribution of earthquake magnitudes from each source. Characterize the distribution of source-to-site distances from each source. Predict the resulting distribution of ground motion intensity. Combine information from parts a-d to compute the annual rate of exceeding a given ground motion intensity.
3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis One important factor in seismic hazard study is how reliable is the long-term earthquake potential model used to estimate seismic hazard. To construct various long-term earthquake potential models, several different data sets could be used. They are small and moderate instrumentally recorded earthquake catalog, seismotectonic zoning, active fault research result, the GPS data or combining two models or more to construct a new model. A spatial smoothing technique proposed by Frankel in 1995, information on strain accumulation as was proposed by Ward in 1994, and a method based on estimated slip rate and other parameters of active faults (e.g. Wesnousky et al. in 1984) are usually used
4 Various Long-term Earthquake Potential Models Models: It can be constructed based on: 1. Instrumentally Recorded Earthquake catalog 2. Slip-rate of Active Faults 3. GPS or Geodetic data 4. Seismic Zoning 5. Combinations of models Assumptions Time independent G-R Law Works
5 EARTHQUAKE CATALOG, STATISTIC & SEISMICITY Understanding catalog for psha map revision of 2017
6 Period Of Good Catalog:
7 Selected Catalog At The Depth: 0-60km b ~ 0.96
8 De-clustered Selected Catalog At The Depth: 0-60km b ~ 0.9
9 TESTING STABILITY SEISMICITY PATTERN UNDER ASSUMPTION OF POISONIAN DISTRIBUTION: STUDY CASE FOR SUNDA ARC We divide catalog of of The De-clustered Earthquake Catalog to & by following Frankel s Hypothesis
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12 TESTING STABILITY SEISMICITY PATTERN UNDER ASSUMPTION OF POISONIAN DISTRIBUTION: INDONESIA REGION We divide catalog of of The De-clustered Earthquake Catalog to & by following Frankel s Hypothesis
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16 Some Notes Evaluation of The A-value by utilizing different windows observation of both Sunda Arc and The Whole Indonesia Region show stable seismicity pattern. The PUSGENS 2016 catalog seems to be reliable enough to be used for revising the seismic hazard maps.
17 UNDERSTANDING SEISMO-GEODETIC BEHAVIOR OF BASIC TECTONIC ELEMENTS IN JAVA ISLAND FOR PSHA MAP REVISION OF 2017
18 The Main Idea Understanding Displacement Gradient Seismic Earthquakes!!! Aseismic
19 Tectonic Implication
20 Persebaran titik GPS yang digunakan dalam perhitungan model blok Sesar Baribis dan Kendeng (Koulali dkk, 2016b) Sesar Kendeng yang terletak memanjang sepanjang Jawa Timur dan Jawa Tengah menurut Koulali dkk (2016)
21 Persebaran titik GPS di Pulau Jawa. Vektor berwarna biru adalah stasiun kontinyu. Vektor berwarna merah adalah stasiun GPS berkala.
22 Persebaran titik GPS di Pulau Jawa. Vektor berwarna biru adalah stasiun kontinyu. Vektor berwarna merah adalah stasiun GPS berkala. PUSGENs Earthquake Catalog (All Depth) PUSGENs Earthquake Catalog (Depth 60KM)
23 Possible Earthquake-Clustered Area or Plane or Volume (Engdahl Catalog: ) Possible Earthquake-Clustered Area or Plane or Volume (Relocated Catalog: ) Possible Earthquake-Clustered Area or Plane or Volume (Relocated Catalog: ) Possible Earthquake-Clustered Area or Plane or Volume (Engdahl Catalog: ) Adopting Seismicity Smoothing With 20km Correlation Distance (Frankel, 1995)
24 Sesar Kendeng yang terletak memanjang sepanjang Jawa Timur dan Jawa Tengah menurut Koulali dkk (2016) Persebaran titik GPS di Pulau Jawa. Vektor berwarna biru adalah stasiun kontinyu. Vektor berwarna merah adalah stasiun GPS berkala.
25 Peta Segmentasi Jawa
26 Our Basic & Main Data for PSHA Input are Updated Thus. We really Need to Update Our PSHA Map
27 Fault PGA 2500y USGS
28 Subduction PGA 2500 year USGS
29 All Sources PGA 2500 years USGS
30 Hazard map PGA 10% in 50y (Fault Sources) 2010 Vs 2016 Hazard Map 2010 New Hazard Map 2016
31 Hazard map PGA 2% in 50y (Fault Sources) 2010 Vs 2016 Hazard Map 2010 New Hazard Map 2016
32 Hazard map PGA 2% in 50y (Fault Sources) 2010 Vs 2016 Hazard Map 2016 New Mmax New Hazard Map 2016
33 Hazard map PGA 10% in 50y (Total Sources) 2010 Vs 2016 Hazard Map 2010 New Hazard Map 2016
34 Hazard map PGA 2% in 50y (Total Sources) 2010 Vs 2016 Hazard Map 2010 New Hazard Map 2016
35 What We Really Need to Care In The Near Future. Our Concern is to understand better the Most Plausible & Reliable Seismic Moment Rate to PSHA Updating, Thus The Precise Segmentation is really Needed to be investigated more detail in the future research The Most reliable slip-rate is really Needed to be investigated in the near future Small Earthquake Monitoring is Really Needed to Done very soon
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37 IT WASN T RAINING, WHEN NOAH BUILT THE ARK - Howard Ruff
38 MAKA, TAK PERLU MENUNGGU BENCANA KEMBALI TIBA UNTUK MEWUJUDKAN KESIAPSIAGAAN BENCANA, SEPERTI YANG TENGAH KITA USAHAKAN BERSAMA
39 THANK YOU
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