Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov, Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova

Transcription

1 Glacier Hazard Workshop 2009 Vienna Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov, Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University Faculty of Geography Russia University Centre for Engineering Geodynamics and Monitoring Russia University of Waterloo Canada

2 Russia Black Sea Georgia Caspian Sea Armenia Azerbaijan Turkey Iran Terra MODIS 2 November 2001

3 Kazbek blockages : the beginning g of glacial hazard research in the Caucasus (1860s) Boleslav Statkowsky, a railway engineer and the first expert on glacial hazards and debris flows in the Russian Empire.

4 Glacial debris flows: hazard assessment

5 Map: Artur Kapitanov.. Edit tor: Sergey Chernomorets

6 Debris flow disaster: Gerkhozhan-Su River, 2000 Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

7 Debris flow initiation zone just after the event, July 2000 dr Aleynikov hoto: Aleksand Ph

8 Damaged area: mining town of Tyrnyauz Protective dam destroyed in 1999 Tyrnyauz, 2000 Photo: Irina Seynova Photo: Mikhail Nikitin

9 Changes 1 year after the disaster Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

10 Map: Sergey Chernomorets, Aleksandr Aleyn Dmitry Petrakov, Ivan Krylenko ikov, Dmitry Paramonov, Photo: Aleksand Map: Dmitry Paramonov r Aleynikov Tyrnyauz: risk zoning

11 Heliccopter photo:: Mikhail Nikittin Monitoring network: repeat photography, geodetic measurements, temperature loggers gg etc.

12 GLOFs: prediction experience

13 Database of glacial lakes: 71 lake in the Central Caucasus Marina Shakhmina, Sergey Chernomorets

14 NE slope of Mt. Elbrus New lakes Image: 19 Aug Sergey Krikalev from ISS ust 2005

15 Change of glacial lakes north of Mt. Elbrus Sate ellite image: SPOT. Map p: Olga Tutub alina Year Lake area, 10 3 m

16 28 July 2006 Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

17 17 26 August July Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

18 17 August 2006 Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

19 17 August 2006 Photo: Sergey Chernomorets Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

20 : Ivan Krylenko 17 August 2006 Photo: Sergey Chernomorets Map: 20

21 29 July 2006 Photo o: Sergey Che ernomorets Черноморец С.С., С Петраков Д.А., Сейнова И.Б., Тутубалина О.В. 21

22 19 August 2006 Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

23 Photo: Vera Kidyaeva July 2007 July 2008 Volume: 800, m 3 Volume: >1, m 3 Mitigation: outburst hazard of Lake Bahskara

24 Photo: Vyacheslav Krylenko

25 160 Ma aps: Aleksand dr Aleynikov 0 3 V,м 3 * ; F,м 2 * area volume year Lake Lapa. Area and volume in Changes of Lake Lapa and Lake Mizinchik 800 as recorded by repeated geodetic surveys. y = e x 600 R 2 = cub.m 200 Lake Lapa. Relationships 0 between area and volume in sq.m Graph: Inna Krylenko

26 Map: Inna Krylenko Map: Marina Shakhmina Photo: Aleksey Davydov Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

27 Warning system at the Lake Bashkara Water level automatic sensor Data logger Radiomodem Transmitter Receiver Siren/ buzzer Photo: Sergey Cher nomorets Photo: Dmirty Petra kov

28 Glacier disasters around Mt. Kazbek, Russia/Georgia

29 Mt. Kazbek: transboudary location Photo; Anna Tarbeeva Satellite image: Valery Korzun (International Space Station),

30 Map of glacial and debris flow hazard Kolka Glacier Disaster, North Ossetia, 20 September 2002 Wiped out the New Karmadon village Destroyed infrastructure Tourist facilities ruined nomorets Sergey Cher Map: 125 victims Costs 17 M Euro ~ M m3 transported material, including ~110 M m3 ice-debris dam in the Karmadon depression Origin remains of Kolka Glacier The largest (by volume) recorded glacier event in the world

31 Image: Landsat 7 ETM Interpretation: Olga Tutubalina, Sergey Chernomorets, Dmitry Petrakov Kolka: precatastrophic rock and ice avalanches, August-September км

32 Photo: Aleksandr Polkvoy. Interpretation: Va alery Drobyshev Modelling: Oldrich Hungr, Scot tt McDougall Modelling: DAN-3D

33 Processes in the Kolka glacier repository: one year after the disaster I. Features unchanged in the 2002 disaster: 1.Rock ridges. 2. Summits. 3. Rocks and slopes with screes. 4. Denudation ravines on slopes. 5.Screes. 6. Moraines. 7. Morainic ridges. 8. Glaciers and snow fields. II. Features linked to the 2002 disaster: 9. Boundary of the disaster area. А. Glacial erosion forms: 10. Area from where the glacier ice was removed. 11. Surfaces with glacial striation and polish, fluting. 12. Ice break-up lines. B. Accumulation forms: 13. Masses of displaced ice. 14. hummocky moraine 15. Ice blocks pressed into slope depressions and ravines (on 17 August 2003). 16. Displaced morainic material with ice inclusions. Map compiled by S.S. Chernomorets, O.V Tutubalina, D.A. Petrakov on the basis of field data and IRS LISS/Pan satellite image of III. Changes after the disaster: 17. Active rock falls and screes. 18. Ice falls. 19. Renewed ravines with active rock falls 20. Renewed screes. 21. Debris flows of high frequency. 22. Debris flow deposits. 23. River channels with traces of debris flows. 24. Thermokarst и degradation of hummocky moraine. 25. Landslides. 26. Temporary lake in October Temporary lakes in July 2003.

34 : Ivan and Inna 2009 Карта: составлена И.В. Крыленко, И.Н. Крыленко 2003 Phot to: Olga Tutubalina Photo: Sergey Chernomorets Surveys of coastline: Ivan and Inna Krylenko. Bathymetry: Krylenko, Natalya Krasnykh, Sergey Chernomorets

35 Informing the population of vulnerable areas Sergey Che rnomorets, Olga Tutubalina Photo: Sergey Chernomorets Beware: Kazbek glaciers! Popular booklet in Russian

36 Sergey Chernomorets Thank you for your attention!