What scientists know and do not know about the big one at Cascadia
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1 What scientists know and do not know about the big one at Cascadia Kelin Wang Pacific Geoscience Centre, Geological Survey of Canada Natural Resources Canada
2 The Cascadia Subduction Zone M 7.3, 1946 Rupture zone of M ~ 9 Cascadia earthquake, 1700 M 6.8, 2001
3 What we know Cascadia is a typical place for giant earthquakes The last big one occurred in AD 1700 Similar events occurred every few centuries in the past Now the system is building up energy for the next big one
4 the lithosphere (tectonic plates) mantle outer core inner core
5 Heat causes the mantle to convect. Mantle convection causes plates to move. Subduction zone
6 Between Earthquakes Earthquake
7 The Cascadia Subduction Zone 1964 Alaska (M 9.2) 2011 Japan (M 9.0) 2004 Sumatra (M 9.2) 1960 Chile (M 9.5)
8 What happened in the past?
9 Great Earthquakes Recorded in Coastal Geology Between Earthquakes Earthquake
10 Great Earthquakes Recorded in Coastal Geology Coos Bay From Brian Atwater
11 Great Cascadia earthquake of Jan. 26, 1700, recorded in Japan (Atwater et al., 2005)
12 Great Cascadia earthquake of Jan. 26, 1700, recorded in Japan (Satake, Wang, Atwater JGR)
13 Great Earthquakes Recorded in Seafloor Sediment Deposits (Adams, 1990) (Goldfinger et al., 2005)
14 Great Cascadia earthquakes recorded in turbidite deposits over the past 10,000 years M ~ 20 events Many additional events in the south? Simplified from Goldfinger et al. (2016 Marine Geology)
15 What is happening today?
16 Continuous GPS Stations today: U.S. Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and Western Canada Deformation Array Plus numerous temporary GPS sites and numerous seismic stations
17 GPS data: McCaffrey et al. (2013), after correction for longterm crustal rotation
18 Today AD 1700 GPS data: McCaffrey et al. (2013), after correction for longterm crustal rotation Two points 100 km apart get closer to each other by 5 cm every decade
19 Piecing together the deformation cycle of giant earthquakes Sumatra (and Japan) S. Chile (and Alaska) Cascadia A few years Four decades Three centuries Wang, Hu, He (Nature, 2012)
20 Cascadia since the 1700 earthquake Nootka Sound England and France started Queen Anne s War in eastern North America. Captain Chirikov (Russia) landed on northwest coast. Captain Cook stayed at Nootka Sound. Wang and Gomberg present webinars. Model by Yan Hu
21 Breathing of a sleeping giant Victoria Mt. Baker Future rupture zone now locked Seattle Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS)
22 What we do not know (yet) To what degree (100%?) is the megathrust locked? Will the rupture breach the seafloor? How does seismic behaviour vary along Cascadia?
23 Do not know: To what degree (100%?) is the megathrust locked? GPS data: McCaffrey et al. (2013) We currently assume full locking of narrow zone because of high temperature and quiet megathrust
24 Do not know: To what degree (100%?) is the megathrust locked? Not on megathrust On megathrust Not on megathrust GPS data: McCaffrey et al. (2013) We currently assume full locking of narrow zone because of high temperature and quiet megathrust
25 Do not know: To what degree (100%?) is the megathrust locked? Not on megathrust On megathrust Not on megathrust Proposed seafloor geodesy (Wilcock GPS data: et al. McCaffrey 2012) et al. (2013) How do we get the true answer? Seafloor monitoring
26 Wang and Trehu (2016 J. Geodyn) Do not know: Will the rupture breach the seafloor?
27 Do not know: How does seismic behaviour vary along Cascadia? Great Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700 Microfossil data: A. Hawks, S. Engelhart, B. Horton, etc.
28 Do not know: How does seismic behaviour vary along Cascadia? Microfossil data: A. Hawks, S. Engelhart, B. Horton, etc.
29 What we know Cascadia is a typical place for giant earthquakes The last big one (about M 9) occurred in AD 1700 Similar events occurred every few centuries in the past Now the locked fault is building up energy for the next one What we do not know but are investigating To what degree (100%?) is the megathrust locked? Will the rupture breach the seafloor? How does seismic behaviour vary along Cascadia?
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