Resiliency Assessed by Comparing Scenarios
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1 Resiliency Assessed by Comparing Scenarios Robert A. Bauer Illinois State Geological Survey Use HAZUS to estimate losses from nearby strong events vs. NLE-11 New Madrid Catastrophic M7.7 and NLE-11 Mt. Carmel M6.0. Preliminary HAZUS runs with analysis on a county basis using soil site classification and liquefaction susceptibility maps from an eight state study. 1
2 IL IN Madison Co., IL MO St. Louis Carbondale Evansville KY Sikeston Paducah TN AR Memphis MS AL All 5 km Deep IL IN Madison Co., IL MO St. Louis Carbondale 6.0 Evansville KY Sikeston Paducah 6.3 TN AR Memphis 2
3 All 10 km Deep IL IN MO St. Louis Madison Co., IL Carbondale NLE 11 Mt. Carmel Mag. 6.0 Evansville KY Sikeston Paducah AR NLE 11 Point Mag. 7.7 NLE 11 Fault Mag. 7.7 Memphis TN Scenario Earthquake Locations vs. Historical Seismicity Magnitude 7 & > 6s 5s 4s 3s Base map U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Investigation Series I 2812 (2003) 3
4 HAZUS Results per County for: Building damage - Wood, URM, Manufactured Homes. Pre-Code and Low Code. Direct Economic Losses to: Building Capital losses & Income Losses Transportation Utilities Functionality for: Hospitals Schools Casualties Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana NLE - Mt. Carmel M km MMI = V NMES - M km MMI = VII NLE New Madrid M7.7 Point & Finite (Fault) MMI = V & VI 4
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7 Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Wood - Pre-Code Design Level (%) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Wood - Low Design Level (%) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Unreinforced Masonry - Pre-Code Level (%) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Unreinforced Masonry - Low Design Level (%) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete
8 Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Manufactured Homes - Pre-Code Level (%) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Manufactured Homes - Low Design Level (%) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Direct Economic Losses for Buildings (thousands of dollars) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km Capital Losses Structural Damage 22,157 1,545 1,812 7 Non-Structural Damage 212,909 28,213 25, Contents Damage 145,013 21,717 17, Inventory Loss 5, Income Losses Relocation Loss 15, Capital Related Loss 6, Wages Losses 8, Rental Income Loss 8, Total Losses 423,421 54,384 46,
9 Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Direct Economic Losses for Transportation (thousands of dollars) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km Highway 4, Railway 4,199 1,207 1, Light Rail Bus Facility Ports 2, Ferries Airports 5,247 1,609 1, Total Losses 16,622 3,405 3, Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Direct Economic Losses for Utilities (thousands of dollars) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km Potable Water 10, , Waste Water 0 6,900 5, Oil Systems Natural Gas Electric Power 0 0 8, Communication Total Losses 10,768 7,898 15,
10 Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Hospital Functionality (Percent) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km At Day At Day At Day Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana School Functionality (Percent) NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km
11 Vanderburgh County, Evansville, Indiana Casualties (number of persons) Severity NMES M 6.0 Mt Crml, IL M 6.0 NLE-11 Finite M 7.7 NLE-11 Point M km 41 km ~300 km 348 km 2 a.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count p.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count p.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count Scott County, Sikeston, Missouri NMES Sikeston M km MMI = VII NLE New Madrid M7.7 MMI = VIII 11
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14 Wood - Pre-Code Design Level (%) 18 km ~110 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Wood - Low Design Level (%) 18 km ~110 km None Slight Moderate 4.49 Extensive 7.51 Complete 1.87 Unreinforced Masonry - Pre-Code Level (%) 18 km ~110 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Unreinforced Masonry - Low Design Level (%) 18 km ~110 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete
15 Manufactured Homes - Pre-Code Design Level (%) 18 km ~110 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Manufactured Homes - Low Design Level (%) 18 km ~110 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete 2.28 Scott County, Sikeston, Missouri Direct Economic Losses for Buildings (thousands of dollars) 18 km ~110 km Capital Losses Structural Damage 40,940 97,069 Non-Structural Damage 142, ,535 Contents Damage 67, ,402 Inventory Loss 3,046 6,450 Income Losses Relocation Loss 29,306 64,442 Capital Related Loss 8,896 23,726 Wages Losses 12,921 33,354 Rental Income Loss 12,052 26,157 Total Losses 317, ,134 15
16 Scott County, Sikeston, Missouri Direct Economic Losses for Transportation (thousands of dollars) 18 km ~110 km Highway 86,556 80,881 Railway 4,881 6,923 Light Rail 0 0 Bus Facility 0 0 Ports 2,419 3,258 Ferries 0 0 Airports 6,805 4,752 Total Losses 100,661 95,814 Scott County, Sikeston, Missouri Direct Economic Losses for Utilities (thousands of dollars) 18 km ~110 km Potable Water 45,703 51,186 Waste Water 118, ,074 Oil Systems Natural Gas 3,715 2,275 Electric Power 37, ,320 Communication 108 4,231 Total Losses 204,921 1,226,363 16
17 Scott County, Sikeston, Missouri School Functionality (%) 18 km ~110 km Scott County, Sikeston, Missouri Casualties (number of persons) Severity 18 km ~110 km 2 a.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count p.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count p.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count
18 McCracken County, Paducah NMES Paducah M km MMI = VII NLE New Madrid M7.7 18
19 Wood - Pre-Code Design Level (%) 27 km ~140 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Wood - Low Design Level (%) 27 km ~140 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Unreinforced Masonry - Pre-Code Level (%) 27 km ~140 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Unreinforced Masonry - Low Design Level (%) 27 km ~140 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete
20 Manufactured Homes - Pre-Code Design Level (%) 27 km ~140 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Manufactured Homes - Low Design Level (%) 27 km ~140 km None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete McCracken County, Paducah Direct Economic Losses for Buildings (thousands of dollars) 27 km ~140 km Capital Losses Structural Damage 19, ,735 Non-Structural Damage 76, ,208 Contents Damage 42, ,885 Inventory Loss 1,542 7,384 Income Losses Relocation Loss 15, ,449 Capital Related Loss 9,061 77,782 Wages Losses 11, ,518 Rental Income Loss 7,743 61,955 Total Losses 183,502 1,361,916 20
21 McCracken County, Paducah Direct Economic Losses for Transportation (thousands of dollars) 27 km ~140 km Highway 4,931 44,451 Railway 1,005 3,735 Light Rail 0 0 Bus Facility Ports 12,987 19,948 Ferries 0 0 Airports 4,226 5,189 Total Losses 23,309 73,596 McCracken County, Paducah Direct Economic Losses for Utilities (thousands of dollars) 27 km ~140 km Potable Water 9,301 23,125 Waste Water 20,717 44,332 Oil Systems 0 33 Natural Gas Electric Power 16,922 0 Communication Total Losses 47,315 67,625 21
22 McCracken County, Paducah Hospital Functionality (Percent) 27 km ~140 km At Day At Day At Day McCracken County, Paducah School Functionality (Percent) 27 km ~140 km
23 McCracken County, Paducah Casualties (number of persons) Severity 27 km ~140 km 2 a.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count p.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count p.m. 1 -injury w/o hospitalization hospitalzt'n not life threatening hospitalzt'n life threatening fatality count 0 18 Findings Impacts from some nearby strong earthquakes were similar in damage estimates for catastrophic M7.7 earthquakes at a distance. For building damage estimates, even low code design levels had a significant reduction in damage over pre-code designs. Low Code is the old UBC Zone 1. 23
24 Comparison of Pre-Code and Low Design Levels for structures shows that HAZUS can be used as a What If tool to estimate impact changes from the use of various mitigations in a community. What If estimates can show impacts from smaller earthquake events near towns in comparison to catastrophic events at a distance. HAZUS runs will have to be redone to correct problems and to detect what drives some values. 24
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