Densification as key strategy in urban development

Transcription

1 Densification as key strategy in urban development 1 Christof Schremmer, ÖIR Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning ökosan 15, Graz, June 18, 2015

2 Spatial features Urban structure Austria Vienna metropolitan region: population over 2.5 mio Major urban centers between and inh. Growth rates btw. 0.8 and 1.9 % p.a. (Vienna) large rural areas with low population density and shrinking high share of mountain areas all major urban centres within 60 km from national borders 2 2

3 EU: quantitative targetst and timeline 2030 Source: EU CO2-reduction target: -80% to 2050 (Low Carbon economy roadmap, 2011) 3

4 Vienna and other urban regions Urban development scenarios 2050 FP 7 Project SUME Sustainable Urban Development for Europe Coordinator: C. Schremmer/ÖIR 4

5 UMZ Urban Morphological Zones UN Habitat Definition, implemented by EEA: Corine Landcover, max. 200m between buildings = urbanized zone 5

6 3D representation of the spatial distribution of population in 7 metropolis represented at the same scale Source: A. Bertaud 6 June 18, 2015 C. Schremmer Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

7 Vienna 1.8 Mio. population 2050: + 35 % Pop.+jobs/km2 in urban fabric:

8 BASE scenario 2050: urban fabric + 55% 8 Final Draft

9 SUME scenario 2050: urban fabric + 14% 9 Final Draft

10 Key development strategies up to 2050: Inner-city, densify fi fringe areas, focus on main transport axes 10 Final Draft

11 Density

12 Density BASE Dichte BASE 2050

13 Density SUME

14 Scenarios BASE and SUME: Growth of urbanized zones Density: Popula- Population Growth of change urbanized zone in % in % - pop.+ jobs./km2 urban fabric 2000 tion in UMZ 2050 (Mio.) BASE SUME Vienna ,4 +35% +54% +14% Munich ,0 +17% +41% +18% Stockholm ,8 +44% +50% +22% Porto ,3-4% +0% +0% Athens ,7 +9% +24% +0% Marseille ,1 +19% +35% +0% Newcastle e ,1 +12% +8% +0% 14

15 Scenarios BASE and SUME: Growth of urbanized zones % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Vienna UMZ 14% 55% Stockholm UMZ 20% 47% Oporto UMZ 0% 0% Population Change in % UMZ 7% Newcastle BASE (Growth of urban fabric in % 0% ) Athens UMZ 0% 24% SUME (Growth of urban fabric in % ) Marseille UMZ 0% 30% UMZ Munich 13% 41% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 15

16 Vienna Stockholm Newcastle Final energy per capita for heating& transport Oporto 16 Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

17 Sustainable urban development: Policy analysis and recommendations 17

18 Sustainable urban form: Densification in the right places Fast growing cities will show massive growth of their urban fabric But: greatest potential to re-focus their development strategies through densification (e.g. Vienna, Stockholm) Focus areas: mixed use fringes with good public transport Potential impact of densification: - reducing land consumption - combine with energy-reduction through building improvement - reducing new infrastructure investment - improving modal split reducing energy consumption - keep green spaces, protected areas open - improve urban spatial qualities in fringe areas 18

19 Urban policy analysis: Integrative policy packages needed 19

20 Examples and implementation 20

21 Population development Vienna

22 Urban development plan: new apartments until

23 Urban development plan: Modal Split

24 Urban development plan: Main areas of development and densification 24

25 Urban development plan: Protection of green and open spaces 25

26 Vienna Smart city/region approach Diskussion aspern Seestadt FP 7 Project TRANSFORM 26

27 Smart city & region approach EU Smart cities&communities initiative to raise R&D efforts, also in FP7 and Horizon, JPI Urban Europe etc. Part of the Europe 2020 strategy: 20/20/20% targets: Reduction of CO 2, share of renewable energies, increased efficiency by 2020; but: % by 2050! Smart City key elements: - low to zero energy housing - (decentralized) renewable energy production - smart grids, buffers and energy storage systems - smart, comprehensive energy services, interactive between system providers and users - integrated development of energy and transport systems e-mobility, public transport, infrastructure and grids Urban agglomeration policy perspectives are needed to provide clear framework conditions for investments in individual properties and infrastructures 27

28 Vienna: Inner-city re-development areas and new smart urban development area Aspern Seestadt 28 Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

29 Vienna smart case study area 29

30 Smart urban development area Aspern Seestadt 30 Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

31 Smart urban development area Aspern Seestadt 31 Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

32 aspern Masterplan ha area inhabitants workplaces U EIA 2009/2015 Ph S

33 aspern First Phase of Development 2015: inhabitants 500 workplaces 19 ha green area 2017: inhabitants workplaces : 2nd/3rd d phase 33

34 Vienna Diskussion Inner-city densification close to subway lines: Ex-post analysis 34

35 Inner-city densification/ new subway lines Old urban quarters, densely built up urban stock extension of floor space in cells near the new station scattered development of densification, structural change and some population losses Partly new urban quarters, space for new developments Concentration of structural change (office residential) Extensive increase of population and floor space, some structural changes 35 June 18, 2015 C. Schremmer Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

36 Diskussion Ub Urban re-development and densification 36

37 Inner-city densification: Master plan urban development main station 37 Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

38 Inner-city densification: Master plan urban development main station 38 Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

39 Inner-city densification: Urban development main station 39

40 Urban re-densification in areas of good transport service 40 Stadt Wien June 18, 2015 June 18, C Schremmer C. Schremmer (ÖIR) Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)

41 Inner-city densification: Fringe area metron Raumentwicklung AG 41

42 Inner-city densification: Fringe area metron Raumentwicklung AG 42

43 Inner-city densification: Fringe area -- too much? metron Raumentwicklung AG 43

44 Diskussion Downloads FP7 Project SUME: Downloads FP 7 Project TRANSFORM: schremmer@oir.at 44 Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR)