the changes, both good and bad,

Transcription

1 Prepared For: Delegates of CI s Cumula<ve Effects Conference Calgary, Alberta, Canada June 2017 My Cumula<ve Effects Defini<on the changes, both good and bad, Image source: Barry Wilson caused by our ac1ons today in combina1on with other past and reasonably foreseeable human and natural disturbances 1

2 Land Use A Dominant Driver Of Change RBC forecasts BC economy to lead Canada s growth rate this year at 2.9 % in

3 Many Simultaneous Pressures On Natural Systems primary resource extrac<on (<mber, minerals, etc.) Service industries SeQlement Agriculture Transporta<on Energy Tourism Recrea<on things that affect salmonids Gravel Pits Cutblocks Hiking Houseboats Popula1on Pipelines 4X4 Logging Roads Snowmobile Wildlife Mtn Biking Se;lement Transmission Lines Mineral Explora1on Wildfire Railway Horseback Riding Climate Ar1ficial Highways Light Golf Courses Ca;le ATV Ski Hills Surface Mine Pits 3

4 things that salmonids affect Wetlands Fish & Game Nutrient Cycling Hiking Habitat Angling Human Health & Fitness Wildlife Food Web Tourism Quality of Life ATV Mtn Biking Se;lement Growth Hun1ng Forest Fer1liza1on Horseback Riding Sensi1ve Ecosystems Retail Business Aqua1c Eutrophica1on Connec1on To The Land Stream Structure Stewardship Salmonids are part of a complex system 4

5 Cumula<ve Effects Misconcep<ons 1. Something nega1ve to be avoided Image or source: mi1gated Barry Wilson 5

6 BC EAO Guideline for the Selection of Valued Components and Assessment of Potential Effects May 6, 2017 Only required to assess the nega1ve if considered significant by assessor 2017 BCWF AGM Nelson, BC It s Time To Stop Admiring The Problem Surveyed my CEA Group on Linked In. 2/3 s say existing processes are Very Poor or Poor Effec1veness Of CEA In Legislated Planning Processes Good 14% Adequate 10% Excellent 10% Very Poor 14% Poor 52% Here s how: 6

7 You Are The Cumulative Effect Of The Choices Or Opportunities You Have Image source: hqp://greenbeandelivery.com/ Cumula<ve Effects Misconcep<ons 1. Something nega1ve to be avoided or mi1gated 2. We don t have the tools and processes Image source: developed Barry Wilson or available to do a comprehensive assessment 7

8 Processes & Tools Are Developed & Available Cumula1ve Effects Understanding Is Key To Get What You Want Landscape Values (Natural Capital) Elements of Landscape Change (disturbance) Natural Disturbance Forest harves<ng Agriculture Urban Expansion Infrastructure Recrea<on/ Tourism Energy Forestry Economic Indicators GDP Royal<es and Rents Direct and Indirect Employment Commodity Produc<on Property Value and Taxes Social Indicators Quality of Life Recrea<on Tradi<onal Land Use Liveable Community Environmental Indicators Water Quality/Quan<ty Landscape Fragmenta<on Wildlife Habitat Ecosystem Representa<on Virtual Time Machine Remind us what we ve learned in the past show us what the future could be 8

9 Virtual Time Machine Remind us what we ve learned in the past show us what the future could be Human Land Use Trajectories Landscape Composi<on Virtual Time Machine Podcast, Episode 6 Guests: ALCES Online Founder & 2 of its creators Natural Disturbance / Climate salmonid restora<on federa<on 9

10 Meaningful Time Landuse Scenario A Landuse Scenario B Landuse Scenario C 10 back and forward=13%, 25 forward=17% Shifting Baselines 2017 BCWF AGM Nelson, BC May 6,

11 Shifting Baselines Columbia River Chinook May 6, BCWF AGM Nelson, BC (Wikimedia) 1910 Range of Natural Variation (RNV) Derived using a Monte Carlo approach Captures inter-annual variation of random fire, drought, insects, etc. Computed defendable variation that approximates natural pre-european contact or at least pre-industrialization 4000 yrs of pre-contact simulation to determine the range 11

12 Range of Natural Variation (RNV) Meaningful Space Key element is the Zone of Influence associated with edge: 12

13 GDP Direct Employment 13

14 Direct Employment Direct Employment 14

15 Direct Employment Change Nega<ve Effects of Roads Water Dynamics Discontinuity Sediment/Nutrient transfer Flashier response é Predator Effectiveness Invasive Weeds é Human Presence Viewscapes 15

16 Posi<ve Effects of Roads for humans é Economics Employment GDP Royalties/Stumpage/Taxes é Access To Goods & Services é opportunity for hunting, fishing & outdoor recreation é Quality Of Life Some of the Cumulative Effects From Grizzly s View Photo: BC Parks 16

17 Historic Grizzly Distribution 2010 Linear Edge Density 4X Max Grizzly Threshold 17

18 Logging Road Edge Red is 4X Grizzly Threshold Is There A Link? Red is 4x LED Threshold Dark Blue is Extirpated 18

19 2010 Linear Edge Density Where Grizzly Ex<rpated Red 4X Max Grizzly Threshold 2010 Linear Edge Density Where Grizzly Threatened Red 4X Max Grizzly Threshold 19

20 2010 Linear Edge Density Where Grizzly Viable Red 4X Max Grizzly Threshold Grizzly Exposure Index (RSF) based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF 2010 RNV 20

21 Grizzly Exposure Index (RSF) based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF 2010 RNV Grizzly Exposure Index (RSF) based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF 2010 RNV 21

22 Grizzly Exposure Index (RSF) based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF 2010 RNV Grizzly Exposure Index (RSF) based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF 2010 RNV 22

23 Grizzly Exposure Index (RSF) based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF 2010 RNV Grizzly Exposure Index (RSF) based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF 2010 RNV 23

24 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 24

25 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 25

26 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 26

27 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 27

28 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 28

29 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 2010 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 29

30 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow 30

31 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow salmonid restora<on federa<on

32 Grizzly Bear Threshold Yellow Grizzly Bear Columbia/Shuswap Population 32

33 Grizzly Bear Columbia Shuswap Population Is The Navy Blue Dot Grizzly Bear Columbia Shuswap Population Is The Navy Blue Dot 33

34 Grizzly Bear Columbia Shuswap Population Is The Navy Blue Dot Grizzly Bear Columbia Shuswap Populatio n Is The Navy Blue Dot 34

35 Grizzly Bear Columbia Shuswap Populatio n Is The Navy Blue Dot Grizzly Bear Columbia Shuswap Population Is The Navy Blue Dot 35

36 Traffic Flow - Platooning Even Flow Traffic 36

37 Traffic Flow Barrier LARGE animal overpass would this work? 37

38 Illecillewaet Destination Traffic salmonid restora<on federa<on GEI based on Nielsen and Boyce 2003 RSF Avalanche Natural Disturbance Mt. Fidelity 46 g snow/year

39 Avalanches Are Inconvenient warmer Wetter winters Drier summers Climate Change 39

40 Adams River response to land use and climate change (2050s) Climate Change Affects Wildfire Southern BC increase of 4 0 C by 2080 éavg fire size doubling to 200 km2; é40% in spring é95% in summer é30% in fall; é30% fire season length é30% fire frequency fire severe fire behaviour é7% decrease in fire free areas by 39% Insurance Bureau of Canada predicts that the incidence of severe wildfires will increase in B.C. by 50% or more by érisk to timber supply, public safety and critical habitat like old seral for caribou

41 Cumula<ve Effects Misconcep<ons 1. Something nega1ve to be avoided or mi1gated 2. We don t have the tools and processes developed or available to do a comprehensive assessment Image source: Barry Wilson 3. We don t have adequate data we need more studies first We Are Data Rich Photo: BC Parks 41

42 We Are Data Rich Photo: BC Parks We Are Data Rich Scientific Review of Grizzly Bear Harvest Management System in British Columbia Boyce, Derocher, and Garshelis, 2016 The results of recent work I m sharing here are directly in line with all 11 recommendations of the Scientific Review referenced Exposure Index shown here is an RSF model based on Nielsen and Boyce, 2003 for ALCES Photo: BC Parks 42

43 Understand Cumulative Effects Create The Future coordinated investment in habitat restora<on access management spa<al harvest periodiza<on Positive Outcomes For Grizzly 2020 Exposure Exceeds Upper Limit of RNV GEI based on Nielsen and Boyce

44 Increasing opportunity for cross cultural connec<on Increased local employment Reduced flood hazard Reduced fire hazard Positive Outcomes For People 87 Desynchronize Our Watersheds Using Forestry As A Mgmt Tool Image source: BC Forest Prac<ces Board 44

45 Mule Deer Yes This works For Other Species Too! Rising to 4.5% Below Lower Limit of RNV Currently 23% Below Lower Limit of RNV coordinated investment in habitat restora<on access management forest age class recruitment 89 A Few Suggestions Collaborate from the beginning don t just have someone make a plan - then collect feedback Use a scientific, transparent, credible & proven approach There is no need to wait and reinvent the wheel the tools are available and people are doing it. 45

46 Go To for your Free tour of ALCES Online and other great stuff J bwilsonceanalytic ceanalytic barrywilsn barry.wilson.ceanalytic 46