Assessment and valuation of Ecosystem Services for decision-makers

Transcription

1 Assessment and valuation of Ecosystem Services for decision-makers An introduction to the ARIES approach Ferdinando Villa *, Ken Bagstad Gary Johnson, Marta Ceroni *Basque Center for Climate Change, Bilbao, Spain BioEcon Venezia Ecosystem Services Training Day, 29 September 2010

2 Network Multidisciplinary researchers with a wide range of empirical applications

3 Priorities for an ES toolkit 1. IDENTIFICATION OF STAKEHOLDERS (economic activities) and other socio- economic factors as well as ECOSYSTEM SERVICES (biodiversity and d natural assets) in the area of intervention. 2. ECOSYSTEM SERVICE- and stakeholder-centric assessment in all phases of the life cycle of a project, from selection of sites, exploration and d production stages to the reclamation/remediation of the site. 3. Identification of opportunities for cost-effective ECOSYSTEM SERVICES OFFSETTING and Positive Impact Intervention (business opportunities, REDD+). 4. Integrated assessment of multiple ES at a variety of spatial scales and for multiple stakeholders (e.g. forest carbon in combination with hydrological services, soil erosion control, food production, recreation). ARIES = support todecision-making, suitable for non-experts in quantification of ECOSYSTEM SERVICES.

4 Other spatial ES tools InVEST: : Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Univ( of Stanford, CA) Process-based models, land-use driven, valuation component, GIS software application that runs on PCs, no graphical user interface MIMES: Multi-scale Integrated Models of Ecosystem Services (Univ( of Vermont) Process-based models, heuristic, no graphical user interface IBAT Integrated Biodiversity Assessment Tool: interactive atlas application for biodiversity (Conservation International)

5 ARIES in the larger ES tools landscape Once the priorities are set (what ES, what area, etc.) ARIES allows quantifying flows of ecosystem services to explicit stakeholders. ARIES can incorporate qualitative analysis (based on land use, e.g. InVEST) ) and extend it with the quantitative spatial assessment of flows of ES. Probabilistic modeling in ARIES allows for assessments in data scarcity conditions Economic valuation is also available, using either land use or on the physical flows of ES as value transfer criteria.

6 A quantitative-based framework for ES

7 Spatial context in mapping

8 Identifying carriers & flow paths Hydrologic services Carbon sequestration, some cultural values Aesthetic viewsheds Recreation, aesthetic proximity, some cultural services Recreation, flood regulation, many ecosystem goods

9 ES SOURCE MAPPING Source mapping estimates the potential biophysical amount of a benefit provided by a given ecosystem (tonnes of sequestered C in this image) ARIES builds the source models according to the geological, ecological and climate variables describing the areas. Pink overlay represents estimation uncertainty ARIES is the only approach that computes estimates in conditions of data scarcity.

10 STAKEHOLDERS MAPPING Analysis can be performed for all relevant beneficiary groups Maps the location and demand of the potential beneficiaries of each service. Beneficiary maps can be also made for actual and potential beneficiaries through flow analysis. Potential beneficiaries can be the object of planning enhanced flows for positive impact interventions. Blue overlay represents local farming communities and their dependency on soil deposition/erosion

11 ES FLOW MAPPING Flows connect sources and beneficiaries More suited to development Critical flow paths show areas most critical to ensure ES flow to the intended beneficiaries. Regions of high flow density should be protected or enhanced for positive impact Critical ES flow regions Regions of lower flow density can be developed without impacting ES provision.

12 ARIES in corporate decision making Life cycle assessments Infrastructure development ES off-setting (and remediation) and business opportunities (new markets, ES markets) Ex-ante valuation and assistance to cost-benefit analysis of investment plans Scenario evaluation (if then)

13 Why should business care about ecosystem services? Reducing liability Compliance with perceived future regulation Improved corporate image Receiving payment for improved management Conflict avoidance

14 ARIES in life cycle assessment Site identification Evidence of impact for license to operate Ex-ante scenario analysis Offsetting plan Preparation, intervention and servicing Monitoring of changing ES impact Strategy re-evaluation evaluation as stakeholders change Past useful life Planning for continued ES provision Determine reclaimed land use conversion

15 Example of routing a oil/gas pipeline baseline reforested Scenario 1: routing that minimizes impact to flows of ES under business as usual scenario. A long pipeline is required to avoid impacting water provision. Scenario 2: routing that minimizes impact on flows of ES with sponsored reforested corridors. Shorter pipeline offsets reforestation costs.

16 Identification and ranking of areas for offsetting C ARIES can produce a full ES profile for a set of areas under consideration for offsetting, under baseline or exante intervention scenarios. A B D Such profiles help selection of areas and documentation of ES offsets. Multiple Criteria analysis allows customizing the ES profiles to pre-existing priorities or legal constraints.

17 Scenario based quantitative valuation Quantify impact of choices on specific stakeholder groups Two alternative options (different buffer zone widths) evaluated for impact on ecosystem services farmers residents against the different needs of two different stakeholder groups.

18 Corporate Economic Value Estimation with ARIES Aggregated economic value range Conventional methods based on land cover give aggregate and spatial economic values using coefficients from metaanalysis of literature. Available for the USA and Europe. More accurate methods based on benefit transfer are being developed (e.g. FEEM based) using actual ES flow estimates as a transfer function instead of land use.

19 Ex-ante scenario definition Global change scenarios can be merged with local land use changes Pre-defined GLOBAL SCENARIOS e.g. IPCC climate change SPATIAL CHANGE EDITOR Hand-draw or upload planned intervention, e.g. land conversion forest MODEL PARAMETERS and THRESHOLDS of RELEVANCE (by law or governance indications) Completed scenarios are saved and compared

20 ARIES as a PLATFORM (not re-inventing the wheel) Allows data organization and bridging to other models Data storage and organization Maximize value of information No data preparation necessary Information kept secure Access to other data and models: Land use (e.g. INVEST) Biodiversity (IBAT) Dynamic modeling (MIMES) Optimization

21 WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Mail to:

22 ARIES modeling Needed when data are not available ES provision is modeled based on influence probabilities determined by experts GIS data are harmonized to deal with different spatial resolutions (no GIS expertise needed) The system runs calculations on the fly through the online interface Maps are calculated for provision and use, flow analysis determines the actual uses, potential uses, sinks Results are discovered through the data, the system learns to recognize patterns from the data rather than imposing a black box model

23 Modeling ES provision For entire model or model inputs: Use existing ecological models & their outputs if they exist If no good models exist, build ad hoc models based on expert ecological knowledge How much of a given carrier quantity is produced for each landscape pixel?

24 Case studies & partners: Earth Economics/Puget Sound Context Salmon, steelhead and bull trout listed as threatened by ESA. Goals -Produce an ecological economic analysis of the benefits of salmon habitat restoration & flood mitigation measures -Populate ARIES and generate additional values. Scale: regional

25 Case studies & partners: Conservation International/Madagascar Context Heavy deforestation and loss of biodiversity. Goals -Identify Key Biodiversity Areas for conservation priorities in conjunction with ecosystem services (carbon, soil erosion control) -Populate ARIES and build a valuation portfolio. Scale: national

26 Context Case studies & partners: CI & INECOL/Mexico -Expansion of agriculture and deforestation are causing water scarcity. Goals -Test application for ARIES. -Build a valuation portfolio to generate a comprehensive management plan based on hydrological and other ecosystem services. Scale: watershed

27 Fisheries Case studies & partners: UNEP-WCMC/Marine ES Coastal storm protection Impacts of sedimentation & nutrients on coastal ecosystems providing ES

28 Case studies & partners: USGS-BLM/San Pedro pilot San Pedro River, SE Arizona/San Pedro Riparian NCA Testing ES tools & valuation methods for use in public lands decision making Water, biodiversity, carbon, recreation & other cultural services