LCMAP Workshop Welcome. Jesslyn F. Brown USGS/EROS Nov 6, 2018

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1 LCMAP Workshop Welcome Jesslyn F. Brown USGS/EROS Nov 6, 2018

2 LCMAP: Workshop Goals Land Change Monitoring, Analysis, and Projection (LCMAP) Provide an update on current status (Version 1) Algorithm approaches Analysis Ready Data used in LCMAP Data Products New analysis tool: TapTool Validation Assessments Example Application Get the word out to potential users Allow interaction with prototype data Collect feedback

3 Nov 6-8, 2018 workshop schedule Tues, Nov. 6 Morning (Webinar) Welcome What is LCMAP? Lessons Learned using ARD in LCMAP Break Data and Product Examples Q&A Afternoon (On-site) LCMAP Visualization Hands-on Data Exploration Wed, Nov. 7 Morning (Webinar) Using LCMAP Data to Inform Chesapeake Bay Restoration LCMAP Accuracy Assessment Break Land Change in the Piedmont Ecoregion Q&A Afternoon (On-site) Hands-on Exploration Wrap-up Session Collect Feedback

4 LCMAP: The team and a little history EROS Team Loveland Tollerud Jenkerson Barber Taylor Brown Auch Briden Zhou Austin Gallant Sohl Reker Smith Hill Vogelmann Rover Pengra Zelenak Dwyer Sayler Horton Davis Labahn Xian Bouchard Docktor University Partners Boston University Texas Tech University State University of New York Forest Service Partners Cohen Healy Schroeder Yang

5 What is LCMAP? Jesslyn F. Brown USGS/EROS Nov 6, 2018

6 LCMAP Vision Provide documentation and understanding of historical land change and contemporary land change as it occurs. Provide ongoing answers to questions on where, how, and why the landscape is changing. Explain how past, present, and future land change affects society, natural systems, and the functioning of the planet. Assess the impacts of land change locally, regionally, and nationally. Topical emphases include land-change impacts on weather and climate, the carbon cycle, water resources, and ecosystem functioning. Alert relevant stakeholders to important or emerging patterns of land change in their jurisdictions. Support users in the application of land-change data, information, and science results. This includes a state-of-the-art applications support capability, aggressive communications and outreach, and web-based capabilities for accessing all products. Provide webinars to explain and share landchange products and information.

7 LCMAP: The next generation Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) Builds on rich USGS EROS history of LC R&D Targets demand for land cover products Over larger geographic extents At higher resolutions Over longer time periods Integrated land cover and change With faster delivery Foundational elements include: Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) Land change and land cover derived from all available Landsat data Independent reference data (accuracy assessment)

8 Basic vision and structure of LCMAP

9 ARD: Analysis Ready Data Reconditioning of the Landsat archive Based on Collection 1, Tier 1 TM-OLI imagery Radiometric processing to TOA, surface reflectance, & brightness temperature All available high-quality observations packaged in 150 x 150 km tiles USGS/EROS began distribution of CONUS ARD in October 2017 (adapted from Dwyer et al., Pecora20)

10 Inputs matter: ARD per-pixel data richness Per-pixel data richness Doesn t reflect impact of ETM+ SLC-off data gaps Estimated from Level-1 metadata

11 LCMAP: Mapping & Monitoring Continuous Change Detection & Classification (CCDC) Zhu & Woodcock (2014) Based on analysis of the time series of available cloud/shadow free Landsat observations L4-L8 (1982-present) Change detection capability (CCD): Land cover conversion Conditional changes (e.g. forest thinning, insect outbreaks) Potential for near real-time change detection capability Zhu, Z.; Woodcock, Curtis E. (2014). Continuous change detection and classification of land cover using all available Landsat data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 144,

12 LCMAP Monitoring using CCDC Methods that allow tracking of gradual and abrupt change over time Pre-fire Crop f Year fire occurred Post-fire recovery Longer-term recovery Landsat Mid-infrared Band Date

13 CCDC Methodology Change monitoring and land cover mapping is based on the use of the Continuous Change Detection and Classification methods developed by Boston University researchers (Zhu and Woodcock, 2014). CCDC development was funded through a USGS Landsat Science Team award. All cloud- and shadow-free observations Landsat 4-8 data (1982- present) are used. NLCD data are used for training the land cover classification. Calculate time segments for each pixel and determine breaks (changes) Extract spectral change and classify the time segment into products Using xgboost, derive the thematic info and generate maps

14 LCMAP Products: Ten Land Cover and Spectral Change and Products

15 LCMAP: Annual output products Name Description Note Land Cover Products Primary Land Cover Land cover classification consisting of nine general land cover Classes: Developed, Cropland, Tree Cover, Grass/shrub, Wetland, types Water, Ice/Snow, Barren Secondary Land Cover Land cover classification consisting of nine general land cover Alternative cover class with the 2 nd highest algorithmic probability, types same as primary LC classes Primary Land Cover Confidence A measure of confidence in the primary land cover class Measure from 0 to 100; higher values imply higher levels of designation confidence Secondary Land Cover Confidence A measure of confidence in the secondary land cover class Measure from 0 to 100; higher values imply higher levels of designation confidence Annual Land Cover Change Indictor of thematic land cover change that has occurred from the Categories that indicate two land cover states, the prior year land prior year to the current year (in other words, From:To land cover and the current year land cover cover) Spectral Change Products Time of Spectral Change The day that a spectral change was detected for a given year Provides data indicating location and timing of spectral breaks Change Magnitude A measure of the spectral magnitude of the change found within Higher values may be indicative of different types of changes a given year Time Since Last Change The cumulative number of days since the last spectral change Provides an indicator of how long a location has been in its current occurred as of July 1 st of the given year state Spectral Stability Period A measure of the amount of time in days that a pixel has been Provides information of the frequency of land surface change spectrally stable Model Quality Characterization of time series model quality as it relates to Provides a spatial measure for interpreting LCMAP product results model input data and model fit

16 LCMAP: Version 1 prototype results Cascades / Columbia Plateau Primary Cover, 2014 Developed Agriculture Grassland & Shrubland Tree Cover Water Wetlands Snow & Ice Barren 300 km

17 Version 1 Prototype Tiles Processing in prototype mode to provide data for initial QA/QC Eval sites Eastern region

18 Visualization of CCDC

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20 Basic structure of LCMAP

21 USGS/USFS Validation Collaboration Joint USGS/USFS Response Design V.3.0 (5/18/2016) National Base Sample of 25,000 pixels Time Sync V3 5 variables x 30 years x 25,000 plots = 3,750,00 manually collected data points The full set of variables are then cross-walked and aggregated to create output comparable to the LCMAP legend at each plot for each year of the time series ( ). 750,000 data points LCMAP Legend

22 Independent Reference Data Joint effort with US Forest Service Landscape Change Monitoring System (LCMS) LCMAP validation & error estimation Initial sample set: 25,000 points Spatial extent: CONUS Characterized across 1985-present Full TM/ETM+/OLI record Evaluated for land cover & change Full Landsat record, high res, and ancillary data Can be updated ongoing, and/or intensified (adapted from Pengra et al., Pecora20)

23 Assessments and Projections LCMAP ultimately is a capability to continuously track and characterize changes in land cover, use, and condition and parlay such information into assessments of current and historical processes of change as a science foundation to support evaluations and decisions relevant to environmental management and policy. Drought monitoring Water quality Pollinator landscapes Energy development Channel dynamics Wet / dry cycles

24 Prototype Assessment of Land Change in the Piedmont

25 Modeling Landscapes Beyond the Satellite Era Consistent USGS Land-cover Database Historical Contemporary (Satellite Era) Future Scenarios Trends Modeled (Backcast) CCDC Modeled NLCD

26 Projections Use of CCDC output to inform FORE-SCE: Model scenario construction Short-term business-as-usual scenarios, based on simple extrapolation from most recent LCMAP output Transition probabilities to inform alternative scenarios Model parameterization Elasticities (based on transition probabilities) Patch characteristics Spatial distribution Model Validation / Assessment

27 LCMAP: Applications Assistance Communicate and engage with LCMAP user community to: Grow existing and initiate new partnerships Align applications with partner requirements Design cooperative and innovative applications Develop examples/scenarios of ARD and LCMAP applications Provide feedback related to future R&D directions

28 LCMAP: CONUS engineering and production schedule Version 1 Production is our next big goal: 422 tiles, 10 products for 33 years ~140,000 map products Have locked down our methodology to produce annual products Transferred science code to engineering team Code is being tested on operational system Starting production November, 2018 Production estimate is approximately 5 months ~2 months are needed to perform the accuracy assessment

29 Notional Schedule and Key Milestones IOC will operationalize mapped products derived from CCDC models and US Landsat ARD Released products verified with LCMS reference data Released products will be available on Earth Explorer IOC includes local Science R&D access to IWDS & SEE CY17 CY18 CY19 CYQ1 CYQ2 CYQ3 CYQ4 CYQ1 CYQ2 CYQ3 CYQ4 CYQ1 CYQ2 CYQ3 US ARD Released CU Ingested into IWDS US Ingest CCDC SW Beta L-C/C Product Gen SW Beta US CCDC Runs Done First Products Released CCDC IOC Complete Ongoing Studies/Plans/Dev Sentinel-2 ARD MultiSpectral Scanner ARD Landsat Collection-2 Global ARD Science R&D Access CYQ4 Broader/remote access methods under study

30 Sample Data Prototype results All 10 annual products (33 years) H10V03 (Southern CA) Expected to be available by end of 2018 with draft metadata and a product guide

31 Research and Development Improve and further systematize change detection Near-real-time change detection Research approaches for utilizing different wavelengths and instruments Refine land cover legend in classification Research approaches for defining the effect of weather on change detection Further improve classification methods Develop plan for updates in subsequent years (annual forward processing) Research approach to change attribution

32 LCMAP: For more information Existing web page is being reworked: USGS EROS Center Customer Service: Phone: Social media: USGS/EROS twitter and facebook