CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results. Stationary Sources Joint Forum Salt Lake City, UT August 17, 2006

Transcription

1 CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results Stationary Sources Joint Forum Salt Lake City, UT August 17, 2006

2 Source Apportionment Technique CAMx air quality model with PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) PSAT being completed for 2 cases: Plan 2002c Base 2018b Tracks sources of sulfate and nitrate Tracking organic carbon too computationally intensive. However, data is available that delineates primary OC, from biogenic SOA, and anthropogenic SOA.

3 18 Source Regions on a 36 km Grid

4 Eight Source Categories ICON BCON PT MV ANF Natural NWF AR Initial conditions Boundary conditions Point sources Mobile sources WRAP anthropogenic fires WRAP natural fires and biogenics Elevated fires in other RPOs All other sources (non-elevated fires in other RPOs, area sources, offshore, oil & gas area sources, etc.) Examples of PSAT sources : MV_CO = mobile sources in Colorado PT_CE = point sorces in CENRAP BCON = transport from modeling domain boundaries (derived from GEOS-CHEM)

5 Status of Modeling Plan 2002c just completed Base 2018b to be completed by end of August Several months currently completed Results currently available for daily and monthly averages Results will be provided for 20% best and worst visibility days at each Class I area

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16 Alternative Formats for Presenting Results All examples are for July SO4 All examples pair 2002 and 2018 on same chart Format 1: Top 10 sources (TONT, GRCA, ROMO, BADL) Format 2: By source region (BADL) Format 3: By source category (BADL) Format 4: By source controlability (BADL)

17 Current Format

18 NV_PT SUM_OTHER Alternate Format 1 Top 10 Sources Tonto Monthly Average CAMx/PSAT SO4 Concentrations (July 2002) MX_PT EA_PT CE_PT OF_Area AZ_PT AZ_MV OF_PT MX_Area BCON SO4 Concentration (ug/m3)

19 SUM_OTHER Alternate Format 1 Top 10 Sources Grand Canyon Monthly Average CAMx/PSAT SO4 Concentrations (July 2002) MX_PT OF_Area NV_PT EA_PT AZ_PT CE_PT OF_PT MX_Area NM_PT BCON SO4 Concentration (ug/m3)

20 SUM_OTHER Alternate Format 1 Top 10 Sources Rocky Mountain Monthly Average CAMx/PSAT SO4 Concentrations (July 2002) BCON CE_PT EA_PT WY_PT MX_PT CO_MV UT_PT CO_Area UT_Natural CO_PT SO4 Concentration (ug/m3)

21 CN_Area SUM_OTHER Alternate Format 1 Top 10 Sources Badlands Monthly Average CAMx/PSAT SO4 Concentrations (July 2002) EA_PT BCON CN_PT ND_PT MX_PT CE_Area CE_MV WY_PT CE_PT SO4 Concentration (ug/m3)

22 Alternate Format 2 By Region Badlands Monthly Average CAMx/PSAT Sulfate Concentration (July 2002) SO4 Concentration (ug/m3) AZ BCON CA CE CN CO EA ICON ID MT MX ND NM NV OF OR SD UT WA WY

23 Alternate Format 3 By Category Badlands Monthly Average CAMx/PSAT Sulfate Concentration (July 2002) SO4 Concentration (ug/m3) ANF Area MV Natural NWF PT BCON

24 WRAP_Nat Alternate Format 4 By Controlability Badlands Monthly Average CAMx/PSAT Sulfate Concentration (July 2002) Canada CENRAP East Mexico Pacific_Offshore WRAP_Anth BCON SO4 Concentration (ug/m3)

25 Slight Decrease in WRAP SO and 2018 Base Case Emissions SO2 NOx % Diff % Diff WRAP (13-States) 1,600,638 1,541, ,435,028 3,920, CENRAP 2,697,271 1,944, ,744,502 3,320, VISTAS 4,668,107 1,700, ,505,986 2,532, MWRPO 3,258,891 2,004, ,249,972 1,576, MANE-VU 2,324, , ,712,780 1,219, US 14,592,973 8,023, ,967,136 12,909, Canada 2,591,763 2,591, ,039,078 3,039, Mexico 801, , , , TOTAL 17,986,429 11,424, ,537,947 16,513,

26 Slight Decrease Due To Large Mobile Source Reduction + Modest Point/Area Source Increase 13-State WRAP Region 2002 and 2018 Base Case Emissions SO2 NOx % Diff % Diff Point 785, , , , Area 94, , , , Non Road 70,152 2, , , Onroad 30,029 5, ,591, , Fires 55,777 55, , , Biogenic , , Oil & Gas Area 3, , , Pacific Shipping* 561, , ,049,526 1,049, TOTAL 1,600,638 1,541, ,435,028 3,920, * Emissions may double in 2018.

27 Why Do Area Sources Increase? WRAP Stationary Area Source SO2 Emissions (2002 tons) AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY Total Industrial Fuel Comb. Distillate Oil 1, , ,450 3, ,301 1,453 1,769 3,200 3,461 26,956 Bit/Subbit Coal 918 1,746 1, ,935 6, ,111 26,031 Residual Oil 55 2, , , ,377 11,002 Comm/Inst. Fuel Comb. Bit/Subbit Coal 2 2, , ,872 6,076 Distillate Oil , ,548 Other 223 5, ,192 1, , ,176 1,712 22,384 Total 2,677 8,314 6,559 2,916 3,299 5,748 6,559 12,954 9,932 10,167 3,581 7,388 17,902 97,996

28 Why Do Point Sources Increase? Most Significant Changes in WRAP Point Source SO2 Inventory (13 States) Diff Industrial Boilers 44,799 35,413-9,386 Power Plants - 12 Existing 203, , ,160 Power Plants - Other Existing 376, ,115 24,167 Power Plants - New 0 41,750 41,750 Primary Copper Smelting 25,043 32,700 7,657 Oil & Gas Production 30,958 43,482 12,524 Mineral Products 17,113 23,669 6,557 Aluminum Ore Reduction 11,061 19,034 7,973 TOTAL -11,919 AZ Point Source Changes Springerville+Coronado+Apache -16,516 Irvington 2,200 Future Coal (AZ) 3,350 Future Coal (Navajo-AZ) 1,675 Copper 4,562 Industrial Gas Boilers -500 Mineral Products (cement+lime) 900 Total -4,329 The 12 Power Plants Are: Springerville -9,766 Coronado -4,249 Apache -2,502 Comanche -9,837 Craig -6,019 Cherokee -9,285 Arapahoe -1,985 Valmont -3,078 Mohave -31,646 Four Corners -9,415 San Juan -2,726 Centralia -12,653 Total -103,160

29 11-State EGU SO2 Trend 700, , ,000 PSAT Modeling Cases SO2 (tpy) 400, , , , b 2018 BART

30 For further background information and data on PSAT:

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