WRAP CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results
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1 WRAP CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results Implementation Workgroup Meeting August 29, 26
2 Source Apportionment Technique Regional gridded photochemical CAMx air quality aerosol model with PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) Similar to CMAQ TSSA method used in AoH Phase I report, best available modeling analysis technique for source apportionment PSAT completed for 2 cases: Plan2c 2-4 average fire emissions, same time & place 2-3 CAMD sources monthly average SOx/NOx profiles by state Base18b rules on the books controls and growth Tracked sources of sulfate and nitrate Tracking organic carbon too computationally intensive
3 Organic Carbon Source Apportionment PSAT work does not include treatment of primary & secondary organic aerosols: CMAQ already completed includes 3 OC species primary organic aerosols anthropogenic secondary organic aerosols biogenic secondary organic aerosols Analysis of these species for the various existing model runs will provide additional information on OC apportionment
4 Source Apportionment Modeling White paper describing CAMx PSAT modeling: Table 1. Benchmarks for PSAT computational costs for each PM species. Run time is for one day (1/2/22) of the WRAP 36-km domain. Species Number of species Tracers RAM Memory Disk Storage per day Run Time with 1 CPU no OMP Run Time with 2 CPU OMP SO GB 1.1 GB 4.7 hr/day 4 hr/day NO GB 2.6 GB 13.2 hr/day Not tested SO4 & NO3 combined GB 3.3 GB 16.8 hr/day Not tested SOA GB Not tested Not tested Not tested Primary PM species GB 3. GB 1.8 hr/day Not tested
5 PSAT: 18 Source Regions on a 36 km Grid plus Initial and
6 PSAT: 6 Source Categories PT MV ANF Natural NWF AR Point sources Mobile sources WRAP anthropogenic fires WRAP natural fires and biogenics Elevated fires in other RPOs All other sources (non-elevated fires in other RPOs, area sources, offshore, oil & gas area sources, etc.) Examples of PSAT results: source by region : MV_CO = mobile sources in Colorado PT_CE = point sources in
7 Status of PSAT Modeling Plan2c & Base18b just completed last week Results presented here are examples Direct access to all results & custom displays available through TSS - later in this talk Results on RMC web page include: Preconfigured bar charts & maps of monthly average source contributions by region Contributing sources & regions on 2% best & 2% worst visibility days at each Class I area See: Table 2. CAMx Visibility Modeling and Source Apportionment Results.
8 Example Contributing Source Categories on 2% Worst Days Agua Tibia, CA Salt Creek, NM AGTI1 SO4 Source Type PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r.. Anthropogenic Fires (W.. Non-WRAP fires Natural Emissions (W RAP Boundary Conditio n SACR1 SO4 Source Type PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r.. Anthropogenic Fires (W.. Non-WRAP fires Natural Emissions (W RAP Boundary Conditio n AGTI1 NO3 SACR1 NO3 Source Type PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days Source Type PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r.. Anthropogenic Fires (W... Non-WRAP fires Natural Emissions (WRAP Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r... Anthropogenic Fires (W... Non-WRAP fires Natural Emissions (W RAP Boundary Conditio ns
9 Example Contributing Source Categories on 2% Worst Days Badlands, SD Sawtooth, ID BADL1 SO4 Source Type PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r.. Anthropogenic Fires (W.. Non-WRAP fires Natural Emissions (W RAP Boundary Conditio n SAWT1 SO4 Source Type PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r.. Anthropogenic Fires (W.. Non-WRAP fires Natural Emissions (WRAP Bou ndary Cond itio ns BADL1 NO3 Source Type PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days SAWT1 NO3 Source Type PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r. Anthropogenic Fires (W. Non-WRA P fires Natural Emissions (W RA Boundary Cond ition Initial Condition Area Point Mobile (on-road and off-r. Anthrop ogenic Fires (W.. Non-WRAP fires Natural Emissions (WRA Bou ndary Cond itio n Initial Condition
10 Example Top 1 Contributing Source Regions on 2% Worst Days Agua Tibia, CA Salt Creek, NM AGTI1 SO4 Top 1 PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days AGTI1 NO3 Top 1 PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days SACR1 SO 4 Top 1 PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days (A re a) (Point) Boundary Conditio n California (Point) California (Mobile) California (Area) (Area) (Point) (M obile California (Natural Emissi Other (Point) (Point) (Point) New (Point) (Area) Arizona (Point) (Point) (Area) Other SACR1 NO3 Top 1 PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days California (Mo bil (M obil Pacific O ffshore (A re California (Area California (P oin Bou ndary Conditio Pac ific Offs hore (P oin California (Natural Emissi (Mobile Oregon (Mobile Other (Poin (Mobil New Mex ic o (Poin New (Mobil New Mex ic o (Area Boundary Conditio (Area New (Natural E m (Na tura l Em iss Ariz ona (Mobile Other
11 Example Top 1 Contributing Source Regions on 2% Worst Days Badlands, SD Sawtooth, ID BADL1 SO4 Top 1 PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days SAWT1 SO4 Top 1 PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days (Point) (Point) (Point) North Dakota (Point) Wyoming (Point) (Area) Montana (Point) (Point) Colorado (Point) Other BADL1 NO3 Top 1 PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days Boundary Conditio ns (Mobile) (Point) South Dakota (Mobile) (Mobile) Wyoming (Point) (Area) North Dakota (Point) Wyoming (Mobile) North Dakota (Mobile) Other Boundary Condition Oregon (Point) Washington (Point (Point Idaho (Natu ral Emissio Oreg on (Natural Emissio (Area Idaho (Point) Idaho (Mobile) Wa shington (Mobil O ther SAWT1 NO3 Top 1 PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days Boundary Conditio n Idaho (M obile) Oregon (Mobile) Washington (Mobile Idaho (A rea) Idaho (Natural Emission California (Mobile (Mobile Washington (Natural Emi Oregon (Anthropogenic F Other
12 Example Contributing Source Regions on 2% Worst Days Agua Tibia, CA Salt Creek, NM AGTI1 SO4 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming AGTI1 NO3 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming Arizona SACR1 SO4 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming NO3 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ) SO4 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ) SO4 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ) SACR1 NO3 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days NO3 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ).2 Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming
13 Example Contributing Source Regions on 2% Worst Days Badlands, SD Sawtooth, ID BADL1 SO4 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming Boundary Condition BADL1 NO3 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming Boundary Condition Arizona Arizona SAWT1 SO4 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming Boundary Condition NO3 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ) SO4 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ) SO4 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ) SAWT1 NO3 Source Region PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days NO3 Apportionm ent (µg/m 3 ) Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana New North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming Boundary Condition
14 Example Contributing Source Controllability on 2% Worst Days Agua Tibia, CA Salt Creek, NM AGTI1 SO4 Controllability PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days SACR1 SO4 Controllability PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days WRAP (Anthropogenic WRAP (Natural) Boundary Conditio n WRAP (Anthropogenic) WRAP (Natural) AGTI1 NO3 Cont rollabilit y PSAT Apport ionment, 2% Worst Days.25.2 SACR1 NO3 Controllability PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days WRAP (Anthropogenic WRAP (Natural) Bou ndary Cond itio ns WRAP (Anthropogenic) WRAP (Natural)
15 Example Contributing Source Controllability on 2% Worst Days Badlands, SD Sawtooth, ID BADL1 SO4 Controllability PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days SAWT1 SO4 Controllability PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days WRAP (Anthropogenic) WRAP (Natural) BADL1 NO3 Controllability PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days WRAP (Anthropogenic WRAP (Natural) Boundary Condition WRAP (Anthropogenic) WRAP (Natural) SAWT1 NO3 Controllability PSAT Apportionment, 2% Worst Days WRAP (Anthropogenic) WRAP (Natural)
16 Example Monthly Average Source Contribution Maps
17 Example Monthly Average Source Contribution Maps
18 Example Monthly Average Source Contribution Maps
19 Example Monthly Average Source Contribution Maps
20 PSAT: Errors/Uncertainties Additional errors have been discovered in the emissions inventories: Base18b non-wrap EGU emissions were underestimated. PM2.5 emissions in the WRAP road dust inventory. RNC is evaluating the effects of these errors.
21 Effects of non-wrap EGU error July August September
22 Effect on PSAT results of non-wrap EGU error Air quality prediction effects on WRAP states are relatively small. Small overestimate of base case progress in for eastern tier of WRAP region states. Base18b sufficient as starting point for development of regional haze control strategies Will correct non-wrap region EGU error in Control18 series of modeling simulations in 27
23 WRAP TSS PSAT Display Tool
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