The future activity level in the High North and the risk patterns in different sea regions

Transcription

1 The 5 th MARPART workshop. MV Polarlys at the Hurtigruten The future activity level in the High North and the risk patterns in different sea regions Dr. Nataliya Marchenko The University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway Arctic Technology Department

2 Outline l Introduction Update after Reykjavik l Research area l Activity level factors l Models and Scenario l Risk Matrix/ Patterns 2

3 The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) - The northernmost university Gate to the Polar Ocean Area with increased strategic significance Well suited to observe climate change Use nature as laboratory Investigation of Sea Ice properties. Full scale experiments UNIS 3

4 Update after REYKJYAVIK (Feb.2016) In Marpart. Conference ISOPE. Svalbard Exercise 2016 On Svalbard. Store Norske finished coal production. Last Ship with coal left in 22 September 2016 Svalbard Melding 2016 and National Budget new ship accidents Longer stay in Longyearbyen for cruise ship New hotel start of construction October 2016 In the Arctic AIS open access. Polar code. Global Warming continues in 2016 Close Churchill port in Canada In the World. Oil price unstable. Wars/conflicts. Something like" shale gas revolution", that can change traffic? N. Marchenko_MARPART conference_mv Polarlys 4

5 MARPART update. Publications 5

6 MARPART update. The Svalbard Exercise 3-6 November esplosion 06:12 First helicopter came. About 80 "injured" people on shore, "KV Svalbard" and helicopter in background daylight is back and last people getting pickup with the "Super Puma" 13:00 All were evacuated by help of 12 helicopter flights, 160 persons involved in rescue operation on place and 598 totally 1/a.htm cooperative exercise the Norwegian Directorate of Health, health administration, institutions in Northern Norway, The hospital in Longyearbyen, the Governor on Svalbard, Longyearbyen municipality and other local institutions and organizations. 6

7 MARPART update. The Svalbard Exercise September Norwegian Coastal Administration (NCA) in cooperation with the governor of Svalbard and local enterprises/resourсes. Test preparedness to the risk of acute oil pollution in the Isfjorden area of the Arctic archipelago. The scenario was a spill from a grounded ship. 1 st day local resources 2 nd day - NCA takes over communication issues 7

8 Svalbard Update. Store Norske quit Store Norske finished coal production on Svalbard. Last Ship with coal left in 22 September

9 Svalbard update. White paper and National budget /dokumenter/pdf/gulbok.pdf UNIS ca 129 mln. 3,5, more Port 0 Ny Ålesund 20 mln infrastrusture 4 new police positions N. Marchenko_MARPART conference_mv Polarlys 9

10 Svalbard Update. Tourism industry overtake? Longer stay in Longyearbyen for cruise ship New hotel in Longyearbyen start of construction October

11 Svalbard update. Seasong 2016 in Marine transport New plastic quye 3 new accidents 3-6 june 2016 Ortelius. Problem with engine. September 2016 Noorderlihtch grounded October 2016 Sv.Express problem with engine. 11

12 Arctic update. In the Arctic AIS open access. Polar code. Global Warming continues in N. Marchenko_MARPART conference_mv Polarlys 12

13 Arctic update. August 2016 Ottawa abandoned Churchill, the only Arctic port Canada s only Arctic deepwater port is now closed, leaving workers in Churchill puzzled and any talk of Arctic sovereignty feeling like empty rhetoric 13

14 Arctic update. Arctic Tourism MV Hanseatic, one of Hapag-Lloyd Cruises s two expedition vessels, navigated once again the Northeast Passage on September 7, 2016, when the ship rounded Cape Dezhnev in Russia. The cruise was fully booked, with almost 300 people on board. The 18-metre-wide ship was loaded with 70 tonnes of provisions for the guests and crew. The crew organised 22 landings and tours with the 14 on-board Zodiacs, rubber boats, which are well suited to expeditions. NSR - Kapitan Khlebnikov, 12 июля - 04 августа

15 Arctic update. Arctic Tourism est-passage-explorer

16 Research area Base map is Norwegian rescue service's area of responsibility (red lines) (BarentsWatch, 2013) 16

17 Arctic Shipping. ArkGIS. Arctic perspective Sea ice concentration and ship traffic patterns September March 17

18 Activity level factors Economic Politic Nature Unprofitable, New technology? Warm, open N. Marchenko_MARPART conference_mv Polarlys 18

19 Economic and Nature Zones of marine activity (map) - From ArcticData Download by Arctic Council CAFF/PAME. Global Ice Concentration Data is Provided by Weathernews Inc. 19

20 Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model (ATAM) Smith, L. C. Stephenson, S. R New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury Red lines indicate fastest available trans-arctic routes for PC6 ships; blue lines indicate fastest available transits for common OW ships. Dashed lines - national 200-nm EEZ boundaries 20

21 ATAM-derived optimal September navigation routes for hypothetical ships seeking to cross the Arctic Ocean between the North Atlantic (Rotterdam, The Netherlands and St. John s, Newfoundland) and the Pacific (Bering Strait). As driven by ensemble-average GCM projections of sea ice concentration and thickness assuming RCPs 4.5 (medium-low radiative forcing) Red lines - PC6 ships; blue lines common OW ships. white backdrops indicate period-average sea ice concentrations 21

22 ATAM-derived optimal September navigation routes for hypothetical ships seeking to cross the Arctic Ocean between the North Atlantic (Rotterdam, The Netherlands and St. John s, Newfoundland) and the Pacific (Bering Strait) As driven by ensemble-average GCM projections of sea ice concentration and thickness assuming RCPs 8.5 climate change scenarios. Red lines - PC6 ships; blue lines common OW ships. white backdrops indicate period-average sea ice concentrations 22

23 Arctic traffic trends Arctic Canada Svalbard The numbers of arrivals to Longyearbyen Port Northern Sea Route

24 Type of ships Arctic Canada Last Updated: May 29, 2015 Svalbard Northern Sea Route trends-shipping-northwest-passage-and-beaufort-sea m/en/ais/details/ports/2775 /Norway_port:LONGYEARBY EN /en/ais/details/ports/2244/ru ssia_port:murmansk N. Marchenko_MARPART conference_mv Polarlys 24

25 Search and Rescue Operations 25

26 Risk analyses. Possible variation of accidents, depending of ship type and events Tourist/Cruis e ship Cargo/tanker/ petroleum rigs/floaters Fishing Grounding T-G C-G F-G Damage due to collision (sea ice and other) T-I C-I F-I Fire T-F C-F F-F Violence/terror T-V C-V F-V Other reasons T-O C-O F-O (Marchenko etal, 2015) Data/ materials used: Risk assessments by DNV GL (Paaske et al., 2014) (DNV GL, 2014c, DNV GL, 2014a); the SADA report by Steipen et al. (Stepien et al., 2014); the AMSA report (Arctic Council, 2009); the National Risk Analysis by DSB (Norwegian Directorate for civil Protection (DSB), 2013) incidents statistics 2013 of Norwegian Maritime Authority ( For the Svalbard area, an overview of Longyearbyen port current and planned activities (Multiconsult, 2014) risk analysis performed by Governor of Svalbard on 2013 (Sysselmannen på Svalbard, 2013). 26

27 Risk Matrix. Svalbard area Risk matrix of consequences for environment Risk matrix of consequences for people (passengers, crew) red area symbols high risk, yellow modern, green low. (Marchenko etal, 2015) 27

28 CONCLUSION There is no significant increasing of High North ship traffic, despite of expectation and continued warming and ice decreasing. Economical and political reasons. Blooming of Arctic tourism Polar Code, following the rules make navigation more safety Geographical differences in regions make a differences in ship traffic patterns, potential risk and preparedness features. Taking into consideration the lack of preparedness/resources in the High North area, the consequences are significant in most cases. Suggested 3/5 step risk matrix is quite universal for High Arctic Risk assessment on High North is challenging, due to lack of proper mass statistics for High North Marine accidents (as they are rare occasion). Qualitative analysis, expert estimation is the way, but further investigations are needed. 28

29 MARPART project Colleagues at UNIS Acknowlegement Thank you for your attention 29