Climate Change in Sri Lanka: Threat, Vulnerability & Sectoral Opportunities

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1 Climate Change in Sri Lanka: Threat, Vulnerability & Sectoral Opportunities Ranjith Punyawardena, PhD Principal Agro-climatologist Department of Agriculture Peradeniya

2 Greenhouse Effect Enhanced Source: WMO, 2018

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4 Climate change in Sri Lanka It is a reality, Not a myth any longer Slow & continuous rise of ambient temperature ( C/year) Frequent occurrence of extreme weather events Frequent & intense Droughts & floods High intensity rains Tornado type winds Intense lightning strikes Sea Level Rise? Potential threat

5 Dry zone No of Warm Nights Trend R 2 p-value Anuradhapura Mah-Illuppallama Batticaloa Hambantota Mannar Intermediate zone Kurunegala Badulla Wet zone Colombo Galle Ratmalana Katunayake Ratnapura Katugastota Nuwara Eliya Increasing trend everywhere Significant everywhere Punyawardena & Premalal, 2013

6 No. of Cold Night Dry zone Trend R 2 p-value Anuradhapura Maha-illuppallama Batticaloa Hambantota Mannar Intermediate zone Kurunegala Badulla Wet zone Colombo Galle Ratmalana Katunayake Ratnapura Katugastota Nuwara Eliya Decreasing trend everywhere Significant in most cases Punyawardena & Premalal, 2013

7 Minimum Temperature o C 13 Annual Average Minimum Temperature (Nuwara Eliya) MinT = *Yr (p=0.000, R 2 =0.588) Year Annual Average MinT Linear (Annual Average MinT) Nissanka & Punyawardenan, 2011

8 Minimum Temperature o C Annual Average Minimum Temperature (Anuradhapura) MinT = *Yr (p=0.000, R 2 =0.64) Year Annual Average MinT Linear (Annual Average MinT) Nissanka & Punyawardenan, 2011

9 Annual Rainfall (mm) 2900 Rainfall Annual Rainfall (Nuwara Eliya) Does not show a significant trend (p=0.377) Year Annual RF

10 Annual Rainfall (mm) Annual Rainfall (Anuradhapura) Does not show a significant trend (p=0.538) Year Annual RF Nissanka & Punyawardenan, 2011

11 Kandy district Matale district Punyawardena & Premalal, 2015

12 Nuwara Eliya district Badulla district Punyawardena & Premalal, 2015

13 Mean No. of Heavy Events Mean No. of Heavy Events Mean No. of Heavy Events Mean No. of Heavy Events Dry zone Heavy Rainfall Events- Maha Illuppallama (DL 1b ) FIM SWM SIM NEM Heavy Rainfall Events- Kantale (DL 1c ) FIM SWM SIM NEM Period (Pentad) Period (Pentad) Heavy Rainfall Events- Trincomalee (DL 2b ) Heavy Rainfall Events- Puttalum (DL 3 ) FIM SWM SIM NEM FIM SWM SIM NEM Period (Pentad) Period (Pentad) Abeysekara &Punyawardena, 2016

14 Occurrence of Heavy rainfall events (weekly cumulative) in a decade during Maha season Maha-Illuppallama > 100 mm > 150 mm > 200 mm Punyawardena, 2015

15 Trends of annual # of rainy days in NCP ( ) Station m (Slope) c (Intercept) r 2 value p-value Bakamuna Kaudulla tank Maha- Illuppallama Angamedilla Anuradhapura Giritale Minneriya tank Kalawewa Punyawardena et al, 2012

16 90 th percentile Source: Dept of Meteorology

17 Variability of Maha season rainfall in the Dry zone Station CV( ) CV( ) Ampara tank Anuradhapura Batticaloa Hambantota Trincomalee No change in cumulative seasonal rainfall, but erratic distribution Punyawardena, 2012

18 Increase of average annual temperature of Sri Lanka Punyawardena et al, 2013

19 Change of annual rainfall of Sri Lanka Punyawardena et al, 2012

20 Latest DoM studies on climate projections. Multi Model Ensemble FIM Baseline climatology period Short term medium term Long term Multi Model Ensemble SIM Baseline climatology period Short term medium term Long term Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5 Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5 Multi Model Ensemble SWM Baseline climatology period Short term medium term Long term Multi Model Ensemble NEM Baseline climatology period Short term medium term Long term Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5

21 Energy Transport Food Security Manufacturing Tourism Biodiversity Anything that may cause damage or destruction to a system or an asset. Water Security Human settlement Health

22 Spatial Vulnerability of Sri Lanka to Climate Change Punyawardena et al, 2013

23 Punyawardena, BVR, Impact of climate change on crop production in Sri Lanka. Proceedings of the Conference on Monsoon Environments: Agricultural and Hydrological Impacts Seasonal Variability and Climate Change. ICTP, Trieste, Italy. March 24-28, 2003.

24 What ever the sector Climate change threatens your supply chain, customers businesses and, the communities you re a part of. If you want to stay in business for a long term in a sustainable manner, while contributing to the fight against climate change is Just a smart strategy You don t want to be a Tech Giant to embrace eco-friendly technology

25 Try to be a rainbow in a disastrous cloud All the sectors of the economy can turn it to an opportunity..!!! Start as a simple intervention Decrease your carbon footprint, Buy or invest more renewable energy and Engage in sustainable resource management Think about Hospitality industry How much your food goes on waste? Of course, Supportive policies are a must

26 A simple example from my own department Maha Illuppallama Field Crop Research & Development Institute 2018 Installed 45 kwh Net metering Monthly Electricity bill in Laboratories Rs. 180,000/= Rs. 20,000 25,000/=

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28 WHAT ARE THE RESPONSE OPTIONS AVAILABLE? Do Nothing Adapt Mitigate

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30 Everything has been said already, But, since no one listens One must always start again. Andre Gide ( ) French Novelist & Critic Thank you!!!

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