CSO Climate Data Rescue Project Formal Statistics Liaison Group June 12th, 2018

Transcription

1 CSO Climate Data Rescue Project Formal Statistics Liaison Group June 12th, 2018 Dimitri Cernize and Paul McElvaney Environment Statistics and Accounts

2 Presentation Structure Background to Data Rescue Project The raw data from Met Éireann Data will be used at daily level so every figure must be correct Some illustrative graphs using daily data Future plans towards climate statistics Contribution towards compiling ecosystem accounts Reflections on lost data needing rescue

3 Climate Change Climate change is defined as: a change in global or regional climate patterns a change apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels. Research questions: Has activity by human beings altered normal variation and cycles in our weather? What planning ahead is needed in terms of climate adaptation and mitigation? What opportunities and threats may arise e.g. tourism, agriculture, more biomass, human health?

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5 Possible Impacts of Climate Change Longer growing season Sea level rise More intense rainfall Coastal flooding Seasonal water shortages Water quality issues Changes in phenology Fish migrations affected by ocean temperature Substantial costs of climate adaptation and mitigation More pests (ticks/mosquitoes) Impact on health (pollen, heat exhaustion, respiratory illness)

6 Maynooth Rainfall Data Rescue Project As part of their continuous assessment, 154 third year students in Maynooth University transcribed paper records representing 1.2 million days of rainfall for the period Data are major contribution to understanding climate variability of Ireland This is an ongoing project and further data will be rescued One rainfall image covered all days in a year Irish Climate Analysis and Research Unit based in Maynooth This project encouraged CSO to offer assistance to Met Éireann

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8 CSO Climate Data Rescue Project: What s Involved?

9 Historical Hand-written Records Pre-1960 records stored in manuscripts in Met Éireann Data are mix of numerical, meteorology symbols and text Phoenix Park manuscripts cover Other manuscripts for Markree Castle, Birr Castle, Fitzwilliam Square etc. Manuscripts may be unique or may be one of two copies Researchers visit Met Éireann library to gain access to manuscripts Scanning them makes them more available Keying them means they can be integrated with daily records since 1960

10 Work Tasks Sequence Met Éireann decide which stations to rescue Manuscripts sent by Met Éireann to external company for scanning Scanned images named by Met Éireann e.g. MO-1_54_095_c_- Images sent to CSO for keying (around 50 variables per station month) CSO designed excel template for data capture Monthly excel file read into SAS and checked (against derived variables etc.) Further visual checking of keyed month Time-series view of keyed months for data consistency checking e.g. May Data returned to Met Éireann in one tab-delimited file for all years Met Éireann analyse data before approving it for dissemination on their website

11 Data Page Thermometer and barometer readings Air pressure Various temperatures Humidity Wind force and direction* Weather summary** Visibility indicators* Cloud formations** Rainfall Sunshine hours Remarks**

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14 Rescued Data (extract from excel file)

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16 Rescued Data (extract from excel file)

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18 Quality Checking International standard is two persons should independently key each station month CSO doing single keying with rigorous quality checking in SAS 2 to 3 hours keying time per station month 1 hour data quality checking per station month Checks Totals; means; valid cloud formations; valid Beaufort letters; numerical range checks; compare same month across years; checks with Meteorological Officer summary data for the month; cross-checks with data previously extracted by Met Éireann Data checking is core skill for statisticians keyed, keying started, scanned and being numbered

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21 Some Data from Data have not been checked by CSO or Met Éireann so only illustrative Can work from known extreme events -> to identify data that caused them -> to looking for other occurrences of similar data that may have caused less known events is a very short period and is before large-scale car ownership and foreign flights Many possible indicators means, totals, droughts, cold days, diurnal temperature range, maxima and minima, frost days, length of growing season, heat waves Daily data can show context and nuances not visible at monthly indicators level e.g. dry periods before a day with high rainfall

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29 Time Series Met Éireann provided us with annual mean temperature figures for We did a quick analysis of the data using two different approaches One graph shows trend lines for and Other graph shows more nuanced trends during the time series Please note y-axis starts at 7.5 C in both graphs and not at 0 C Results will vary a little depending on the method used and whether you down-weight the impact of unusual data in the regression 1945 and 1949 were warmer than usual years at 10.6 C 2010 was unusually cold at 9.2 C How much do you want these years to affect the regression?

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31 Next Steps Rescued data will give Ireland a more comprehensive research database Trends in daily data may be hidden in monthly and annual statistics Daily data can be used to calculate median rainfall etc. in a month Work area of Environmental Accounts includes ecosystem accounts What ecosystem provisioning services is nature providing to humans Changing climate may increase biomass yield from grass, crops, and forests Produce new climate indicators report Start work towards measuring costs of extreme weather events

32 Climate Indicators 2019 Report Reports from EPA funded research provide an excellent starting point - Temperatures, rainfall (floods and droughts), wind (storms), sunshine, upper air conditions - Marine (sea levels, salinity, temperature) - Terrestrial - Ambient air quality from EPA monitoring stations (ozone, nitrogen dioxide, PM 2.5 ) - Water quality (bathing, rivers, lakes) - Phenology (signs of climate change length growing season, bird and insect migrations) - Hydrology (high and low river flow levels) - Changes in agriculture (irrigation demands)

33 Reflections CSO has skills to undertake difficult data rescue projects Dedicated data capture staff an essential requirement Other potential pre-computerisation data rescue projects e.g. Phenology and Hydrology Need to bring most important climate relevant microdata together on an official website to facilitate research by climatologists, ecologists, agriculturalists etc. Many government departments and agencies use climate data as a core input to making strategy Statistical offices have skills that could be used in analyses Climate change could have serious impacts on society and the economy not to mention the environment! Nature and climate interaction provides many ecosystem services that may depend on maintaining a delicate synchronisation of phenology and weather changes

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