CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE: THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF MODELLING AS PART OF
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1 CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE: THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF MODELLING AS PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR THE CARIBBEAN Michael A. Taylor Climate Studies Group, Mona University of the West Indies, Mona.
2 IN THE CONTEXT OF CARIBBEAN AGRICULTURE THINGS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE THINGS ABOUT THE VALUE OF MODELS & MODELLING CONCLUSIONS
3 Climate Change...is real! Distinct s in measures of (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time, due to human actions, happening now.
4 Climate Change...is real! Distinct s in measures of (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time, due to human actions, happening now. CO 0% CH 150%
5 Climate Change...is real! Caribbean temperatures have increased by 1 degree in the last century Warm nights Warm days Warmer days and nights Warm days have steadily increased (~ days since 1960) Warm nights have steadily increased (~1 days since 1960) Cold nights and days have decreased (~1 fewer cold nights since 1960)
6 Climate Change...is real! Caribbean temperatures have increased by 1 degree in the last century Rainfall more variable North Caribbean Shift in the character of regional rainfall. New trends in the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall events are noticeable. For example, the number of dry days between rain events is increasing, and when rain occurs it tends to be heavier.
7 Climate Change...is real! Caribbean temperatures have increased by 1 degree in the last century More storms and hurricanes
8 Climate Change...is real! Caribbean temperatures have increased by 1 degree in the last century Sea levels are rising Caribbean s rate of sea level rise appears to follow the global mean ~ 1.7 mm/year.
9 Climate Change...is real! Distinct s in measures of (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time, due to human actions, happening now. Temperatures increasing Variable Rainfall More storms and hurricanes Rising sea levels
10 Climate Change...is a real challenge! Unfamiliarity Drought was the worst drought in twenty-five years and as a result there wasn t enough rainfall to keep up the water distribution from the National Water Commission s facilities to many parishes, especially to the highly populated Kingston and St. Andrew. Temperatures increasing New regime Variable Rainfall Unreliability More storms and hurricanes Unpredictability the greatest challenge associated with the 010 El Niño-induced drought was the region s inability to recognise the onset of the drought and its severity Caribbean farmers lamented the lack of reference points in the (or even associated biodiversity) on which to base judgements for planting and reaping Rising sea levels
11 Climate Change real (happening now) real challenge Real Solutions today Sufficient to address the complexity of the problem direct and indirect impacts; across sectors; affecting individual through community through governmental; challenging national through regional through global economies; etc. Multiplicity of options policy, technology driven, on the ground, governmental, mitigation, adaptive, education, etc. Models and as potentially part of the mix
12 Both and crop models can help with the challenge ways Computer model that uses mathematical methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They can simulate past, present and future s. Climate Models A computer simulation model that helps estimate crop yield as a function of weather conditions, soil conditions, and choice of crop management practices. Crop Models Models and as potentially part of the mix
13 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties Climate models give us an idea of what the future might be under. Climate Model Scenarios or Storylines of future global development Future Climates Temperature Rainfall Extremes Sea Level Rise
14 Cool Nights Warm Days 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties Caribbean temperatures are projected to increase by up to degrees by century s end. Even warmer days and nights 0-98% of days annually will be considered hot by the 090s Only % cool by the 080s
15 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties Caribbean temperatures are projected to increase by up to degrees by century s end. Drier times ahead Mean s in the annual rainfall for with respect to , as simulated by regional models. Drying projected to be between 5% and 0% Drying most severe between June and October!
16 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties Caribbean temperatures are projected to increase by up to degrees by century s end. More intense hurricanes Number of simulated storms remains the same but more intense, with higher rainfall rates and increased maximum winds.
17 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties Caribbean temperatures are projected to increase by up to degrees by century s end. Even higher sea levels Impacts from a m SLR on Jamaica 1. Land area lost (1% of Jamaica).. People displaced (1%).. Damage or loss to power plants (0%). Tourism resorts damaged or lost (18%). 5. Loss or damage of airports (60%). 6. Loss of roads (%). 7. Loss or damage to port structures (100%) - UNDP/CARIBSAVE (010)
18 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties Knowledge of the future s as gained from models provides a context within which to consider future actions, which is marked by a little less unpredictability, unfamiliarity and unreliability Higher Temperatures Less Rainfall (but still variable) More intense storms and hurricanes Even higehr sea levels
19 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to explore some possibilities Crop models allow the exploration of what certain choices might result in given variable climatic conditions. Rankine et al. (01) Study of the potential use of FAO AquaCrop model for sweet potato farming in the Caribbean
20 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to explore some possibilities * * * * Rankine et al. (01) Study of the potential use of FAO AquaCrop model for sweet potato farming in the Caribbean Randomised Complete Blocks (RCBs) Canopy cover, Biomass (above & Below) Parameters: Rainfall Temperature Relative Humidity Solar Radiation Wind ET o On site weather station
21 Canopy Cover (%) Biomass (t/ha) Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to explore some possibilities Rankine et al. (01) Study of the potential use of FAO AquaCrop model for sweet potato farming in the Caribbean Devon, Manchester: Rain-fed (01) DAP DAP Simulated Measured Simulated Measured
22 Canopy Cover (%) Biomass (t/ha) Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to explore some possibilities Simulated (line) versus measured (filled circles) yield of sweet potato for rain-fed and irrigated treatments at Devon, Manchester (01). Error bars represent one standard deviation above and below the mean Devon, Manchester: Rain-fed (01) DAP Rankine et al. (01) Rankine et al. (01) Study of the potential potential for the use of the use of FAO FAO AquaCrop model for real AquaCrop model for time decision making in the sweet potato farming Caribbean under various in the Caribbean rainfall conditions DAP Simulated Measured Simulated Measured
23 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to explore some possibilities Crop models provide a domain within which decision making can occur. The s due to can be factored in for a virtual environment and appropriate decisions simulated to see the effect (for example) on crop yields, before action is actually undertaken.
24 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to suggest some possibilities. Models help to define potential strategies Climate Models Crop Models potential suitability of some crops under future
25 Future s 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to explore some possibilities. Models help to define potential strategies CARIWIG Project: Rankine et al. (015) Rainfall (mm) Maximum Temperature ( C) Minimum Temperature ( C) Vapour Pressure Relative Humidity (%) Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Change Biomass (t/ha) Yield (t/ha) Evapotranspiration (mm/day) Future Productivity Water Productivity (kgm - mm -1 ) Max n Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mea Absolute Percentage The results suggest that sweet potato may be a potential ' ' adaptation crop particularly given its moderate drought tolerance, requiring little labour and inorganic fertilizers for development of the tuber.
26 1. Models help to reduce the uncertainties. Models help to suggest some possibilities. Models help to define potential strategies In tandem the output of plus crop models may provide results that give a reason for taking certain risks...
27 Things 1. Climate is a real and present challenge for the Caribbean agricultural sector.. Climate models help to reduce the uncertainties associated with a future ; crop models help decision making by exploring possibilities; both sets of models help in defining strategies by offering reasons for risk taking.. Models and should be part of the Caribbean Agricultural sector s approach to tackling the real challenge of.. Climate Smart Agriculture recognizes the challenge and uses all available tools and resources to ensure resilience. There is a role for partnership with academia and research in the pursuit of resilience.
28 Thank you
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