2015 Summer Readiness. Bulk Power Operations

Transcription

1 2015 Summer Readiness Bulk Power Operations

2 TOPICS 2014 Summer Review Peak Snap Shot Forecast vs Actual 2015 Winter Review Peak Snap Shot Forecast vs Actual 2015 Summer Weather Forecast Peak Demand Forecast Notable System Changes Summer Preparations The information contained in this presentation has been gathered from many sources to provide a general overview of expected summer operating conditions. While the data contained is believed to be accurate, Southern Companies assume no responsibility for its accuracy or any use by other parties.

3 SBAA Summer 2014 Summary 2014 Summer Instantaneous August ,988 MW 2014 Summer Integrated August ,842 MWH 2014 Peak January ,887 MW 2007 All Time Peak August ,008 MW

4 Peak Load (MW) Temperature ( F) Historical Summer Instantaneous Peaks for SBAA Instantaneous Peak Temperature Date Instantaneous Peak Temperature Date 8/17 7/12 7/18 8/26 7/14 7/26 8/7 8/22 8/6 6/23 7/26 8/3 6/29 6/13 8/22 85

5 Anomaly ( F) % of 30-Yr Normal 2014 Summer Forecast vs. Actual 2014 Temperature Forecast vs. Actual 2014 Precipitation Forecast vs. Actual May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Forecast Actual Forecast Actual May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Forecasted Peak 44,116 MW Actual Peak 42,988 MW

6 2014 SBAA Summer Peak Snap Shot 8/22/14 TVA -626 VACAR -662 MISO 504 SEPA -616 Instantaneous 15:44 (includes Dalton, MEAG, OPC) SBAA Instantaneous Load 42,988 MW Net Interchange 1,151 MW SBAA Total Peak 46,374 MW Operating Reserve 4,799 MW FLORIDA 2320

7 2014 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Actual Forecast

8 SBAA 2015 Winter Peak Summary 2015 Winter Instantaneous January ,130 MW 2015 Winter Integrated January ,828 MWH 2014 All Time Winter Peak* January ,887 MW 2007 All Time Peak August ,008 MW * ~1500 MW of Demand Side Reduction

9 Peak Load (MW) Temperature ( F) Historical Winter Instantaneous Peak for SBAA Inst. Pk (MW) Temperature Date 48,000 43,000 38,000 33,000 28,000 23,000 18,000 47,400 45,887 45,130 43,874 42,895 42,102 40,255 39,192 37,943 38,279 39,300 36,272 36,708 35,649 34,464 34,267 33, Inst. Pk (MW) 33,022 34,464 34,267 39,192 36,272 36,708 37,943 38,279 40,255 42,102 43,874 42,895 39,300 35,649 45,887 45,130 Temperature Date 1/27 1/3 2/28 1/24 12/20 1/18 12/8 1/29 1/3 2/5 1/11 1/14 1/4 12/13 1/7 1/

10 Anomaly ( F) % of 30-Yr Normal 2015 Winter Forecast vs. Actual 2015 Temperature Forecast vs. Actual 2015 Precipitation Forecast vs. Actual % % NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Forecast Actual 80% 60% Forecast Actual 100% % % 0% NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Forecasted Peak 45,711 MW Actual Peak 45,130 MW

11 2015 SBAA Winter Peak Snap Shot 1/08/15 TVA VACAR 470 MISO 886 SEPA -566 Instantaneous 0622 (includes Dalton, MEAG, OPC) SBAA Instantaneous Load 45,130 MW Net Interchange -2,308 MW SBAA Total Peak 44,233 MW Operating Reserve 3,560 MW FLORIDA -1434

12 Hours Historic Frequency of SBAA Load > 40,000 MW Summer Hours Winter Hours

13 Current Drought Severity Index

14 2015 Southeast Soil Moisture Forecast

15 % of 30-Yr Normal 2015 Southern Company System Precipitation 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% ATL BHM MCN MGM MOB SYS 80% 70% 60% May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

16 Temperature Anomaly ( F) 2015 Southern Company System Temperature May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 ATL BHM MCN MGM MOB SYS

17 2015 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast 9 Tropical Storms 4 Hurricanes 1 Intense Hurricanes

18 2015 Summer Weather Forecast Highlights Summer Forecast Moderate Temperature Wet summer Hottest month June Tropical Cyclones 9 storms, 4 Hurricanes and 1 Intense Hurricanes Potential for hurricanes to make landfall in the Southern service territory

19 2015 SBAA Summer Peak Demand Forecast 43,170 MW Based on the current weather forecast for 2015 summer & 96 0 F 46,040 MW Extreme Scenario forecast for 2015 summer & F

20 MISO June: 2060 / 1181 July: 1100 / 221 August: 1950 / 1071 Import Capability (TTC/ATC) (Southern Company Ownership Share. Posted values as of May 28 th ) TVA June: 1789 / 910 July: 1179 / 300 VACAR August: 1844 / 965 June: 880 / 57 July: 1072 / 251 August: 983 / 168 Southern Company (units in MW) FLORIDA June: 390 / 92 July: 269 / 71 August: 354 / 73

21 2015 Summer Preparations Pre-Summer Balancing Desk Meeting Pre-Summer Reliability Coordinator Meeting Interruptible Service Summit System Alert Drill Hurricane Conference Call Drill Summer Operating Studies OPCO Maintenance Coordination with Neighbors When: April 20 th Who: Balancing Desk Operators When: May 4 th Who: Reliability Coordinators When: May 4 th & 5 th Who: Interruptible Program Managers, BPO, Fleet Operations When: May 13 th Who: BPO, Fleet Operations, TCCs, DOCs, EMS,SouthernLINC When: May 20 th Who: BPO, Fleet Operations, Coastal Plant Mangers, TCCs When: Pre-Summer Who: Transmission Planning, TCCs and BPO When: Pre-Summer Who: TCCs and TMCs Who: Neighboring RCs and Operations Planning Groups

22 Summary Forecast Near normal temperatures expected for SBAA Below normal tropical season Projected SBAA peak 43,170 MW in Mid June Reserves Import capacity available to be utilized Calls for interruptible load not likely if temperatures are similar to 2014 summer System Operations System Alert Drill Operators are prepared to respond with appropriate operating procedures