Winter Season Resource Adequacy Analysis Status Report

Transcription

1 Winter Season Resource Adequacy Analysis Status Report Tom Falin Director Resource Adequacy Planning Markets & Reliability Committee October 26, 2017

2 Winter Risk Winter Season Resource Adequacy and Capacity Requirements Issue Charge is posted at: The Issue Charge has three Key Work Activities Winter peak load forecasting Winter season resource adequacy Winter season reliability requirements 2

3 Evaluation of Winter LOLE Risk Areas of Investigation Winter Load Forecast Accuracy Monthly load profile and forecast distribution Winter Generation Performance Common mode failures Correlation with load level Maintenance scheduling Transmission System Planned and forced outages 3

4 Winter Peak to Summer Peak Ratio RTO and LDAs RTO 4

5 PJM Weekly Installed Capacity (ICAP) Reserves ICAP according to IRM % 34.9% MW Capacity Reserves Summer Loads Winter Loads May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Week Beginning 5

6 PJM Weekly Installed Capacity (ICAP) Reserves ICAP according to IRM MW Capacity Reserves Summer Loads Winter Loads May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Week Beginning 6

7 PJM Weekly Installed Capacity (ICAP) Reserves ICAP according to IRM MW Capacity Reserves Summer Loads Winter Loads May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr Week Beginning 7

8 Generator Forced Outage Distributions Description of Curves Plotted on Slides 9 and 10 PRISM Curve - Based on individual unit EFORd s that are assumed to be mutually independent. History Curve Based on system-wide forced outages from the five weekdays of the peak load week of each of the winters over the 9-yr period (DY2007/08-DY2015/16). (45 data points.) History Mod Curve Same as History Curve but removes Winter 2014/15 peak week data (first polar vortex) and replaces it with Winter 2015/16 peak week data (second polar vortex). 8

9 PJM - Forced Outages (Peak Winter Week) 9

10 MAAC - Forced Outages (Peak Winter Week) 10

11 Historical Generator Planned Outage Rates Description of Data Plotted on Slide 12 Planned Outage Rates are observed values from the five weekdays of each week in each winter over the 9-yr period (DY2007/08-DY2015/16). The winter weeks are combined based on load magnitude, not calendar order. The box plot shows the range of historical planned outage rates on each of the top five load weeks of the winter. The red dots are the planned outage rates modeled by PRISM in each of the top five load weeks of the winter. 11

12 PJM - Planned Outages (Top Five Winter Weeks) The box plots are the actual planned outage rates. The red dots are the planned outage rates modeled by PRISM. 12

13 Seasonal Unforced Capacity (UCAP) Requirements The table below shows the summer and winter reliability requirements for the RTO and for three LDAs. The requirements are shown under four different allocations of LOLE risk between the summer and winter seasons. The analysis includes generator performance data from both the 2014 and 2015 Polar Vortex events. All numbers are in UCAP MW Conclusion: The RTO winter requirement must be equal to the RTO summer requirement to satisfy the 1 in 10 LOLE criterion under both the 100/0 and 90/10 seasonal risk allocations. 13

14 Seasonal Unforced Capacity (UCAP) Requirements The table below shows the summer and winter reliability requirements for the RTO and for three LDAs. The requirements are shown under four different allocations of LOLE risk between the summer and winter seasons. The analysis excludes generator performance data from the 2014 Polar Vortex event. All numbers are in UCAP MW Conclusion: The RTO winter requirement must be equal to the RTO summer requirement to satisfy the 1 in 10 LOLE criterion under the 100/0 seasonal risk allocation. If the RTO summer requirement is increased by 433 MW, the RTO winter requirement could be reduced by 9,202 MW (90/10 Risk Allocation). 14

15 Provide status update to MRC on 10/26/17 Next Steps Discuss load forecast model investigation with LAS on 11/15/17 First half of 2018 Complete investigation of load forecast model Continue to evaluate operational risks in winter such as increasing penetration of gas generation Report back to the MRC in 2Q