Fall & Winter Weather Hazards. Presented by: Fort Rucker Weather Operations

Transcription

1 Fall & Winter Weather Hazards Presented by: Fort Rucker Weather Operations

2 Products & Services FRWXOPS Provides: Weather Briefings Resource Protection Observing PMSV Climatology Seasonal Weather Briefings You name it, we do it!

3 Hours of Operation Observing/Forecasting (KOZR) 01L Monday 01L Saturday, excluding federal holidays Contact 26 OWS for after-hours support DSN /2652/2653 COMM /2652/ Request DD thru JET after hours No account needed

4 What s New?

5 What s New? Cafeteria style notifications from JET Sign up for WWA notifications Select which WWAs to be notified on AUTO lightning warnings/advisories from JET KOZR, KHEY, KLOR, KSXS

6 What s New? Weekend MEF Posted one hour before A/C issue time

7 Coming Soon.. Facebook Live Mass briefing in conjunction with PM MEF Trial period of 6-8 weeks Feedback, way ahead Starting 01 Jan 19, all WWAs will be issued by Ft Rucker Wx during duty hours OWS will issue after duty hours

8 Specification/Amendment Criteria Standard Criteria Standard Criteria Tailored Criteria 26 OWS NWS FRWXOPS 1500 / / / 3 < 1500 / 3 < 2000 / / 3 < 600 / 1 1/2 < 1000 / 3 < 1000 / 3 < 200 / 1/2 < 600 / 2 < 700 / 2 < 200 / 1/2 < 600 / 1 1/4 < 500 / 1 <300/ 1/2 < 200 / 1/4 Be careful when shopping!

9 The Process

10 Products MEF DD Continuation Sheet VFR Flights w/in 60NM Area Forecast AM, PM, N1 IFR Flights w/in 100NM Point Forecast AM, PM, N1 IFR Flights w/in 150NM Point Forecast AM, PM only

11 Products AM PM N1 Issued: 1045L (CDT) Issued: 1015L (CST) Issued: 0500L (CDT) Issued: 0445L (CST) Issued: 1715L (CDT) Issued: 1630L (CST) Valid: L Valid: L Valid: L MEF MEF MEF DD DD DD Continuation Sheet Continuation Sheet *** Planning Data Planning Data Planning Data *** For flights outside 100NM during the N1 period, please request a DD least 2 hours in advance of desired brief time

12 Products Dissemination Printouts at KOZR and KLOR Web page Post to Facebook & Twitter to Ops Section & Mx Test Section

13 Keep In Mind Hazards are for 150NM TURBC/ICING OUTSIDE TS FL winds/temps are for 150NM and mid point of period Read the Remarks

14 Keep In Mind VCTS Better articulate probability and confidence Reduce/limit TEMPO lines to higher storm threats Does NOT mean predominant thunderstorms

15 AMENDMENT VS UPDATE Amendment Forecast has changed Update Forecast has NOT changed Only adding information (WWA, etc) Correct a typo

16 How Do I Know If The MEF was AMD? MEF AMD Advisory WIF ATIS JET Social Media Facebook Twitter Mobile App Flashing sign outside WX Top of MEF/-1

17 Products 48-Hour Planner

18 Products 7-Day Planner

19 Services GRAB OUR APP FOLLOW US LIKE US

20 Services GRAB OUR APP

21 Services Wx Information Frequency (348.8) MEF Amendments Void Times Lowe AHP (243.35) Cairns AAF (134.1) Lightning for Base Fields & Molinelli Observed LTG w/in 5NM and 10NM Robo-calls, distro View via JET

22 PIREPs Large LFA/few obs Critical during wx May be used to amend the MEF/-1 PMSV Freq: 134.1

23 Percent 1000/3

24 Percent 500/1

25 Climatology Tmax Tmin Tmean Dir Speed Precip JAN N FEB N MAR NW APR NW MAY NE-E JUN S-SW JUL SW AUG NE-E SEP NE-E OCT NE-E NOV N DEC N

26 Drought Monitor KOZR YTD: KLOR YTD: KHEY YTD: * YTD AVG (thru 31 Oct): Nov 18

27 Seasonal Outlook: N-D-J Average temps 40% chance of above average precip

28 Seasonal Weather Hazards Fall-Winter Turbulence / Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) Icing Thunderstorms Tornadoes Hurricanes

29 Turbulence & LLWS Turbulence Wind speed/direction gradients associated with jet stream NOT associated with thunderstorms For CAT 1 aircraft, must adjust for others LLWS A drastic change in wind speed and/or direction in the lower 2000 feet of the atmosphere NOT associated with thunderstorms

30 Icing Icing Increases the weight of the aircraft Decreases lift NOT associated with thunderstorms Icing forecast is for 150NM MEF/-1 forecasts STRUCTURAL icing only

31 Icing Visible Moisture + Temps 0 C = Structural Icing Visible Moisture + Temps 4 C = Non-Structural Icing MEF/-1 forecasts STRUCTURAL ICING ONLY

32 Icing Observed Skew-T KTLH, KBHM, KLIX, KJAN at 00Z and 12Z Forecast Skew-T Numerous locations in LFA every 6 hours Icing

33 Thunderstorms HAIL

34 Cold fronts and prefrontal squall lines Often severe Bowing Thunderstorms

35 Thunderstorms

36 Thunderstorms

37 Tornadoes Two peaks March - May November Peak hours 1200L L

38 AL Tornadoes By Year

39 AL Tornadoes By Month

40 AL Tornadoes By Hour

41 AL Tornadoes By County

42 Hurricanes 01 June - 30 November The official storm track and intensity provided to DoD by the National Hurricane Center We cannot and will not deviate Tailor to Ft Rucker

43 Hurricanes

44 Hurricanes: 2018 Season Organization Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes (Cat 3 or greater) NOAA Colo State Season Average

45 Weather Happens... Are YOU prepared?

46 Contact Info Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Grab our App / (PMSV) or (WIF)

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