2/27/2015. Big questions. What can we say about causes? Bottom line. Severe Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Climate Change: What We Do and Don t Know

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1 Severe Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Climate Change: What We Do and Don t Know Big questions How and why are weather hazards distributed? Are things changing in time and will they? HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL HAROLD.BROOKS@NOAA.GOV Begin with thunderstorm rain, then severe thunderstorms (tornado, winds>=50 kts, hail>=1 inch Good news lots of new work published in last 2 years What can we say about causes? Bottom line Easy things associated with increased CO 2, increased average temperature Hard getting away from those Formal attribution studies give idea of probability Need physical relationship Reporting databases have big issues Evidence growing for increasing tornado variability, some for timing of season changing Variability will increase Future favorable severe storm environments will increase Tornado environments not so clear July precip for OKC Daily data back to 1891 (National Climatic Data Center) Heavy rain is almost certainly from thunderstorms Look at running 20 year averages 1

2 Reports A logical place to start Views on Tornado Data Quality US reporting database Target of opportunity Changes in de jure and de facto standards Hail in other countries China yes/no reports available at >500 sites with some size data Italy, France, and Spain hailpad networks Want consistency in absence of complete accuracy Tier 1 Date/time, location, deaths, (E)F1+ Tier 2 Length, (E)F scale for different periods Tier 3 Width, path, injuries Best thing (E)F1+ for Annual US Tornado Reports by F scale US Reports Per Year (Divided by 2) F0 F Wind Hail 1000 Reports Reports Year Year Report summary What might have changed with tornadoes? Lots of reporting changes make it hard to know Big interannual variability Hail is observed more consistently some places Impacts of seasonal temperature swings? Timing of season "As spring moves up a week or two, tornado season will start in February instead of waiting for April When does tornado season start? 11 2

3 What has changed about tornado distributions? Appearance of increased variability Starting date Since 2002, set or tied records for monthly F1+ extremes Max 4 (Feb 08, Apr 11, May 03, Sept 04) Min 6 (Jan 03, Feb 10, May 05, Jun 02, Jul 12, Sept 09) Days per year (F1) decreased More tornadoes on biggest days Timing of tornadoes in Plains (TX/OK/KS/NE) Temperature Impacts on Tornadoes Use warm and cold historical periods as proxy for change Implicit assumption future patterns look like recent warm Look at monthly temps (NCDC US 48 states) (E)F1+ counts Long and Stoy (2014) 3

4 Change in Tornadoes Per Degree Warming 95% Confidence Mean Change Brooks, Marsh, and Carbin (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., in prep.) Warm summers fewer tornadoes Warm winters more tornadoes Summary of tornado observations Ingredients for severe thunderstorms the supercell Increased variability in recent years Possible temperature impacts (more in warm winters, fewer in warm summers) Change in location?? Thunderstorms Low level warm, moist air Mid level (~2 10 km) relatively cold, dry air Something to lift the warm, moist air Combine first two to get energy available for storm (CAPE or Wmax) Organization Winds that increase and change direction with height over lowest few km From equator at surface, west aloft 4

5 Reanalysis Proximity Soundings (1997-9) 100 Shear Sfc-6 km Wind Difference (m/s) 10 1 Little severe Significant severe Significant tornado 'Best' discriminator CAPE (J/kg) Energy (Dan Cecil, Univ. of Alabama Huntsville) Updated from Brooks et al (2003) 50N (a) Mean Hail Index N 40N 35N 30N Tornado/ Hail 25N 50N 45N 40N 35N (b) Mean Large Hail Events Wind 30N 25N 130W 115W 100W 85W 70W Allen et al

6 What will happen in the future CONUS Hail Events Annual Total Hail Events and Index Observations Index Adjusted Obs Year Allen et al Mean expected changes CAPE goes up (related to moisture increase) Shear goes down (decrease in equator to pole gradient) We care about combinations Climate model simulations Dynamical downscaling Trapp et al. (2009) Regional Analyses Updraft Shear Combination Black dots: Ensemble S/N > 1 White dots: Ensemble S/N > 2 Diffenbaugh et al. (2013) Diffenbaugh et al. (2013) 6

7 Used GCM to drive 4 km grid spacing model Looks like experimental weather prediction models Sees many features of storms Run for March May for 11 years in late 20 th, late 21 st century Lets us look at environments and storms Seeley and Romps 2015 Annual accumulated model severe storm occurrences (downscaled) Projected increase (red), decrease (blue) in severe storms (downscaled) 7

8 Model summary Closing thoughts Environments Energy term increases Shear term decreases Overall, more environments favorable for severe storms Tendency to increase non tornadic wind events Weaker evidence for long term increase in tornadoes But Increase in favorable environments Increased variability Tornadoes on fewer days, more on outbreak days Models increase variability in future What does variability mean for risk management? 8

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