2/27/2015. Big questions. What can we say about causes? Bottom line. Severe Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Climate Change: What We Do and Don t Know
|
|
- Griselda Robinson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Severe Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Climate Change: What We Do and Don t Know Big questions How and why are weather hazards distributed? Are things changing in time and will they? HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL HAROLD.BROOKS@NOAA.GOV Begin with thunderstorm rain, then severe thunderstorms (tornado, winds>=50 kts, hail>=1 inch Good news lots of new work published in last 2 years What can we say about causes? Bottom line Easy things associated with increased CO 2, increased average temperature Hard getting away from those Formal attribution studies give idea of probability Need physical relationship Reporting databases have big issues Evidence growing for increasing tornado variability, some for timing of season changing Variability will increase Future favorable severe storm environments will increase Tornado environments not so clear July precip for OKC Daily data back to 1891 (National Climatic Data Center) Heavy rain is almost certainly from thunderstorms Look at running 20 year averages 1
2 Reports A logical place to start Views on Tornado Data Quality US reporting database Target of opportunity Changes in de jure and de facto standards Hail in other countries China yes/no reports available at >500 sites with some size data Italy, France, and Spain hailpad networks Want consistency in absence of complete accuracy Tier 1 Date/time, location, deaths, (E)F1+ Tier 2 Length, (E)F scale for different periods Tier 3 Width, path, injuries Best thing (E)F1+ for Annual US Tornado Reports by F scale US Reports Per Year (Divided by 2) F0 F Wind Hail 1000 Reports Reports Year Year Report summary What might have changed with tornadoes? Lots of reporting changes make it hard to know Big interannual variability Hail is observed more consistently some places Impacts of seasonal temperature swings? Timing of season "As spring moves up a week or two, tornado season will start in February instead of waiting for April When does tornado season start? 11 2
3 What has changed about tornado distributions? Appearance of increased variability Starting date Since 2002, set or tied records for monthly F1+ extremes Max 4 (Feb 08, Apr 11, May 03, Sept 04) Min 6 (Jan 03, Feb 10, May 05, Jun 02, Jul 12, Sept 09) Days per year (F1) decreased More tornadoes on biggest days Timing of tornadoes in Plains (TX/OK/KS/NE) Temperature Impacts on Tornadoes Use warm and cold historical periods as proxy for change Implicit assumption future patterns look like recent warm Look at monthly temps (NCDC US 48 states) (E)F1+ counts Long and Stoy (2014) 3
4 Change in Tornadoes Per Degree Warming 95% Confidence Mean Change Brooks, Marsh, and Carbin (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., in prep.) Warm summers fewer tornadoes Warm winters more tornadoes Summary of tornado observations Ingredients for severe thunderstorms the supercell Increased variability in recent years Possible temperature impacts (more in warm winters, fewer in warm summers) Change in location?? Thunderstorms Low level warm, moist air Mid level (~2 10 km) relatively cold, dry air Something to lift the warm, moist air Combine first two to get energy available for storm (CAPE or Wmax) Organization Winds that increase and change direction with height over lowest few km From equator at surface, west aloft 4
5 Reanalysis Proximity Soundings (1997-9) 100 Shear Sfc-6 km Wind Difference (m/s) 10 1 Little severe Significant severe Significant tornado 'Best' discriminator CAPE (J/kg) Energy (Dan Cecil, Univ. of Alabama Huntsville) Updated from Brooks et al (2003) 50N (a) Mean Hail Index N 40N 35N 30N Tornado/ Hail 25N 50N 45N 40N 35N (b) Mean Large Hail Events Wind 30N 25N 130W 115W 100W 85W 70W Allen et al
6 What will happen in the future CONUS Hail Events Annual Total Hail Events and Index Observations Index Adjusted Obs Year Allen et al Mean expected changes CAPE goes up (related to moisture increase) Shear goes down (decrease in equator to pole gradient) We care about combinations Climate model simulations Dynamical downscaling Trapp et al. (2009) Regional Analyses Updraft Shear Combination Black dots: Ensemble S/N > 1 White dots: Ensemble S/N > 2 Diffenbaugh et al. (2013) Diffenbaugh et al. (2013) 6
7 Used GCM to drive 4 km grid spacing model Looks like experimental weather prediction models Sees many features of storms Run for March May for 11 years in late 20 th, late 21 st century Lets us look at environments and storms Seeley and Romps 2015 Annual accumulated model severe storm occurrences (downscaled) Projected increase (red), decrease (blue) in severe storms (downscaled) 7
8 Model summary Closing thoughts Environments Energy term increases Shear term decreases Overall, more environments favorable for severe storms Tendency to increase non tornadic wind events Weaker evidence for long term increase in tornadoes But Increase in favorable environments Increased variability Tornadoes on fewer days, more on outbreak days Models increase variability in future What does variability mean for risk management? 8
(Severe) Thunderstorms and Climate HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL
(Severe) Thunderstorms and Climate HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL HAROLD.BROOKS@NOAA.GOV Big questions How and why are weather hazards distributed? Are things changing in time and will they? Begin with thunderstorm
More informationSevere thunderstorms and climate change HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL
Severe thunderstorms and climate change HAROLD BROOKS NOAA/NSSL HAROLD.BROOKS@NOAA.GOV Big ques5ons! Have severe thunderstorms/tornadoes changed?! How and why do we expect severe thunderstorms to change
More informationRobust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in 1. response to greenhouse forcing
Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in 1 response to greenhouse forcing 1 Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Martin Sherer, and Robert J. Trapp (2013) 1 Outline I. Introduction A. Uncertainties II.
More informationExtremes Seminar: Tornadoes
Dec. 01, 2014 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 3 4 Introduction 101: What is a tornado? According to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a tornado is a violently rotating column of air, pendant
More informationHail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States
Hail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States 1979-2012 John T. Allen jallen@iri.columbia.edu Co-author: Michael K. Tippett WWOSC 2014, Thursday August
More informationThree main areas of work:
Task 2: Climate Information 1 Task 2: Climate Information Three main areas of work: Collect historical and projected weather and climate data Conduct storm surge and wave modeling, sea-level rise (SLR)
More informationINTRODUCTION HAZARDOUS CONVECTIVE WEATHER (HCW)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HAZARDOUS CONVECTIVE WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES: INSIGHT FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING GEWEX WORKSHOP Kimberly Hoogewind 1,2, Jeff Trapp 2, and Mike Baldwin 1 1 Purdue
More informationAssocia'on of U.S. tornado counts with the large- scale environment on monthly 'me- scales
Associa'on of U.S. tornado counts with the large- scale environment on monthly 'me- scales Michael K. Tippe? 1, Adam H. Sobel 2,3 and Suzana J. Camargo 3 1 Interna)onal Research Ins)tute for Climate and
More informationTORNADOES: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE
TORNADOES: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE VICTOR GENSINI, PH.D. ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR METEOROLOGY PROGRAM COLLEGE OF DUPAGE (NEXLAB) GLEN ELLYN, IL @gensiniwx THIS RESEARCH AIMS TO OBJECTIVELY RECONSTRUCT HAZARDOUS
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2017 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average contiguous
More informationChampaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: After a cold and snowy December,
More informationNorth American Weather and Climate Extremes
North American Weather and Climate Extremes Question V. What do we understand about future changes? L. O. Mearns, NCAR Aspen Global Change Institute July 17, 2005 Question 5 Subtopics How do models simulate
More informationMinnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture Kenny Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office Crop Insurance Conference, Sep 13, 2017 Today 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
More informationChampaign-Urbana 1999 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 1999 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer A major snowstorm kicked off the new
More informationChampaign-Urbana 1998 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 1998 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY Audrey Bryan, Weather Observer 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sparc.sws.uiuc.edu The development of the El Nìno
More information2011 Year in Review TORNADOES
2011 Year in Review The year 2011 had weather events that will be remembered for a long time. Two significant tornado outbreaks in April, widespread damage and power outages from Hurricane Irene in August
More informationThe 2015 NWS Spring and Summer Weather Update
http://weather.gov The 2015 NWS Spring and Summer Weather Update Western North Carolina severe weather climatology Tony Sturey, WCM Greenville/Spartanburg, SC North Carolina Spring and Summer Outlooks
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: May 15, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: May 15, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com APRIL 2014 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature for
More informationENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity
ENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity Michael K. Tippett Columbia University Willis Research Network Autumn meeting Nov 1, 2017 Summary What is ENSO? Unusual warming or cooling of tropical Pacific
More informationThe Climate of Payne County
The Climate of Payne County Payne County is part of the Central Great Plains in the west, encompassing some of the best agricultural land in Oklahoma. Payne County is also part of the Crosstimbers in the
More informationChanging Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed
Changing Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed David Bosch USDA-ARS, Tifton, GA Jeff Arnold ARS Temple, TX and Peter Allen Baylor University, TX SEWRU Objectives 1. Project changes
More informationThe Climate of Grady County
The Climate of Grady County Grady County is part of the Central Great Plains, encompassing some of the best agricultural land in Oklahoma. Average annual precipitation ranges from about 33 inches in northern
More informationToward the Development of Severe Weather Outlooks. Scott Weaver NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Toward the Development of Severe Weather Outlooks Scott Weaver NOAA Climate Prediction Center 2011 Tornadoes 6 Events $27.7 Billion 539 Fatalities Community White Paper & NOAA Fact Sheet Advancing the
More informationSeptember 2018 Weather Summary West Central Research and Outreach Center Morris, MN
September 2018 Weather Summary The mean temperature for September was 60.6 F, which is 1.5 F above the average of 59.1 F (1886-2017). The high temperature for the month was 94 F on September 16 th. The
More information5.0 WHAT IS THE FUTURE ( ) WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE?
5.0 WHAT IS THE FUTURE (2040-2049) WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE? This chapter presents some illustrative results for one station, Pearson Airport, extracted from the hour-by-hour simulations of the future period
More informationWeather Systems III: Thunderstorms and Twisters
Weather Systems III: Thunderstorms and Twisters Review 1. Definition of airmasses? Bergeron classification of air masses 2. Surface weather analysis: Station model, wind speed code, present weather 3.
More informationFunding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE. Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center
Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center Remember These? Factor 1: Our Energy Source Factor 2: Revolution & Tilt Factor 3: Rotation!
More informationEric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign snodgrss@illinois.edu
More informationClimate Forecast System (CFS) Preliminary review of 2015 CFS anomaly forecasts of precipitation and severe weather Greg Carbin, NOAA/NWS/SPC
Climate Forecast System (CFS) Preliminary review of 2015 CFS anomaly forecasts of precipitation and severe weather Greg Carbin, NOAA/NWS/SPC Climate Forecast System (CFS) Severe 2015-16 Updates Dashboard
More informationThunderstorm: a cumulonimbus cloud or collection of cumulonimbus clouds featuring vigorous updrafts, precipitation and lightning
Thunderstorm: a cumulonimbus cloud or collection of cumulonimbus clouds featuring vigorous updrafts, precipitation and lightning Thunderstorms are responsible for most of what we refer to as severe weather,
More informationChampaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: January started on a mild note,
More informationEl Niño Update Impacts on Florida
Current Issues in Emergency Management (CIEM) Sessions 1 &2 October 12 th and 26 th, 2006 Florida Division of Emergency Management Tallahassee, Florida El Niño Update Impacts on Florida Bart Hagemeyer
More informationNovember 2018 Weather Summary West Central Research and Outreach Center Morris, MN
November 2018 Weather Summary Lower than normal temperatures occurred for the second month. The mean temperature for November was 22.7 F, which is 7.2 F below the average of 29.9 F (1886-2017). This November
More informationMulti-day severe event of May 2013
Abstract: Multi-day severe event of 18-22 May 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA A relatively slow moving Trough over the western United States and a ridge
More informationThe Climate of Marshall County
The Climate of Marshall County Marshall County is part of the Crosstimbers. This region is a transition region from the Central Great Plains to the more irregular terrain of southeastern Oklahoma. Average
More informationChiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.
More informationThe Climate of Texas County
The Climate of Texas County Texas County is part of the Western High Plains in the north and west and the Southwestern Tablelands in the east. The Western High Plains are characterized by abundant cropland
More informationClimate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua
Climate Variability Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Thanks to Nathan Mantua Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional
More informationLocal Ctimatotogical Data Summary White Hall, Illinois
SWS Miscellaneous Publication 98-5 STATE OF ILLINOIS DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES Local Ctimatotogical Data Summary White Hall, Illinois 1901-1990 by Audrey A. Bryan and Wayne Armstrong Illinois
More informationThe Climate of Pontotoc County
The Climate of Pontotoc County Pontotoc County is part of the Crosstimbers. This region is a transition region from the Central Great Plains to the more irregular terrain of southeast Oklahoma. Average
More informationThe Pennsylvania Observer
The Pennsylvania Observer May 31, 2012 May 2012 - Pennsylvania Weather Recap By: Paul Knight The majority of the fifth month had temperatures averaging well above seasonal levels with two distinct hot
More informationMET Lecture 29 Tornadoes IV
MET 4300 Lecture 29 Tornadoes IV Outline Definition, life cycle, & climatology of tornadoes Tornado formation within supercells Tornado formation within nonsupercell thunderstorms Fujita scale Tornado
More informationThe Climate of Kiowa County
The Climate of Kiowa County Kiowa County is part of the Central Great Plains, encompassing some of the best agricultural land in Oklahoma. Average annual precipitation ranges from about 24 inches in northwestern
More informationWeather Outlook: 2015 Growing Season
Weather Outlook: 2015 Growing Season Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor Regional Weather Information Center University of North Dakota Grand Forks, North Dakota Why Should We Be Concerned?
More informationThe Climate of Seminole County
The Climate of Seminole County Seminole County is part of the Crosstimbers. This region is a transition region from the Central Great Plains to the more irregular terrain of southeastern Oklahoma. Average
More informationClimate versus Weather
Climate versus Weather What is climate? Climate is the average weather usually taken over a 30-year time period for a particular region and time period. Climate is not the same as weather, but rather,
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JANUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review During January, the average
More informationNCAR Initiative on Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science Extreme Events
NCAR Initiative on Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science Extreme Events Linda O. Mearns NCAR/ICTP MICE Poznan, January 2004 Elements of the Assessment Initiative www.esig.ucar.edu/assessment Characterizing
More informationThe Climate of Bryan County
The Climate of Bryan County Bryan County is part of the Crosstimbers throughout most of the county. The extreme eastern portions of Bryan County are part of the Cypress Swamp and Forest. Average annual
More informationThunderstorm: a cumulonimbus cloud or collection of cumulonimbus clouds featuring vigorous updrafts, precipitation and lightning
Thunderstorm: a cumulonimbus cloud or collection of cumulonimbus clouds featuring vigorous updrafts, precipitation and lightning Thunderstorm: a cumulonimbus cloud or collection of cumulonimbus clouds
More informationASSESMENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIROMENT IN NORTH AMERICA SIMULATED BY A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL
JP2.9 ASSESMENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIROMENT IN NORTH AMERICA SIMULATED BY A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL Patrick T. Marsh* and David J. Karoly School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman OK and
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 1, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 1, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com FEBRUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The February contiguous U.S. temperature
More informationWinter. Here s what a weak La Nina usually brings to the nation with tempseraures:
2017-2018 Winter Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2017-2018. El Nino /
More informationDrought in Southeast Colorado
Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationWeather: Air Patterns
Weather: Air Patterns Weather: Air Patterns Weather results from global patterns in the atmosphere interacting with local conditions. You have probably experienced seasonal shifts, such as winter in New
More informationSection 13-1: Thunderstorms
Section 13-1: Thunderstorms Chapter 13 Main Idea: The intensity and duration of thunderstorms depend on the local conditions that create them. Air-mass thunderstorm Mountain thunderstorm Sea-breeze thunderstorm
More informationImpacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America
Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: The mean 500 hpa flow over North America featured a trough over
More informationREGIONAL VARIABILITY OF CAPE AND DEEP SHEAR FROM THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS ABSTRACT
REGIONAL VARIABILITY OF CAPE AND DEEP SHEAR FROM THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS VITTORIO A. GENSINI National Weather Center REU Program, Norman, Oklahoma Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois ABSTRACT
More informationExtreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S.
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University March 7, 2016 Causes of Extreme Rainfall
More informationThe Climate of Haskell County
The Climate of Haskell County Haskell County is part of the Hardwood Forest. The Hardwood Forest is characterized by its irregular landscape and the largest lake in Oklahoma, Lake Eufaula. Average annual
More informationChapter 14 Thunderstorm Fundamentals
Chapter overview: Thunderstorm appearance Thunderstorm cells and evolution Thunderstorm types and organization o Single cell thunderstorms o Multicell thunderstorms o Orographic thunderstorms o Severe
More informationThe Climate of Murray County
The Climate of Murray County Murray County is part of the Crosstimbers. This region is a transition between prairies and the mountains of southeastern Oklahoma. Average annual precipitation ranges from
More information2003 Moisture Outlook
2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Through 1999 Through 1999 Fort Collins Total Water
More informationATS 351, Spring 2010 Lab #11 Severe Weather 54 points
ATS 351, Spring 2010 Lab #11 Severe Weather 54 points Question 1 (10 points): Thunderstorm development a) Sketch and describe the stages of development of a single cell thunderstorm. About how long does
More informationTOPICS: What are Thunderstorms? Ingredients Stages Types Lightning Downburst and Microburst
THUNDERSTORMS TOPICS: What are Thunderstorms? Ingredients Stages Types Lightning Downburst and Microburst What are Thunderstorms? A storm produced by a cumulonimbus cloud that contains lightning and thunder
More information4/18/2010. National Weather Service. Severe Weather Forecasting: A Western North Carolina Case Study
National Weather Service Severe Weather Forecasting: A Western North Carolina Case Study Laurence G. Lee Science and Operations Officer National Weather Service Greer, SC Plus 13 River Forecast Centers
More informationTHUNDERSTORMS Brett Ewing October, 2003
THUNDERSTORMS Brett Ewing October, 2003 A natural hazard that occurs often on a daily basis in the lower and mid-latitudes is thunderstorms. Thunderstorms is a weather system that can produce lightning,tornadoes,
More informationThe Earth System - Atmosphere III Convection
The Earth System - Atmosphere III Convection Thunderstorms 1. A thunderstorm is a storm that produces lightning (and therefore thunder) 2. Thunderstorms frequently produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and
More information11A.2 Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode And Evolution For Severe Storms Initiated Along Synoptic Boundaries
11A.2 Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode And Evolution For Severe Storms Initiated Along Synoptic Boundaries Greg L. Dial and Jonathan P. Racy Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 1. Introduction
More informationWhat Is the Weather Like in Different Regions of the United States?
Learning Set 1 What Is Weather, and How Is It Measured and Described? 1.3 Explore What Is the Weather Like in Different Regions of the United States? trends: patterns or tendencies you can see over a broad
More informationExtreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT NESC, Saratoga, NY
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT http://alanbetts.com NESC, Saratoga, NY March 10, 2018 Increases in Extreme Weather Last decade: lack
More informationOakfield, WI Tornado of July 18 th, 1996: "Everything in its Right Place"
Oakfield, WI Tornado of July 18 th, 1996: "Everything in its Right Place" Arian Sarsalari Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin Madison ABSTRACT This paper will serve
More informationMarch 5, Are Weather Patterns Becoming More Volatile? MMRMA 2015 Risk Management Workshop
Are Weather Patterns Becoming More Volatile? MMRMA 2015 Risk Management Workshop Josh Darr Meteorologist and VP Catastrophe Risk Management GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SINCE 1880 EARTH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SINCE
More informationAdaptation by Design: The Impact of the Changing Climate on Infrastructure
Adaptation by Design: The Impact of the Changing Climate on Infrastructure Heather Auld, J Klaassen, S Fernandez, S Eng, S Cheng, D MacIver, N Comer Adaptation and Impacts Research Division Environment
More informationWeather Systems. The air around high-pressure weather systems tends to swirl in a clockwise direction, and usually brings clear skies.
Weather Systems A weather system is a set of temperature, wind, pressure, and moisture conditions for a certain region that moves as a unit for a period of several days. Low-pressure weather systems form
More informationALLEY CATS: HOW EL NIÑO INFLUENCES TORNADO ALLEY AND THE THREAT OF CATASTROPHES
ALLEY CATS: HOW EL NIÑO INFLUENCES TORNADO ALLEY AND THE THREAT OF CATASTROPHES Kevin Van Leer - Sr. Product Manager, Model Product Management National Tornado Summit - Tuesday, March 1 st, 2016 1 EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN
More informationApril 2011 Volume 18 Number 4
The Weather Wire April 2011 Volume 18 Number 4 Contents: Winter Summary to Date Drought Monitor March Summary/Statistics April Preview Sunrise/Sunset Snow Totals Winter Summary to Date The Front Range
More informationEllen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA
Ellen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA Regions of the US National Climate Assessment What we Observe: Climate changes and impacts Increasing temperature Increasingly
More informationHere s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures:
Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2018-2019. El Nino / La Nina: When looking
More informationKristy Stolz, Savanna Hawkins, Myka Lyles, Heather Gabriele
Kristy Stolz, Savanna Hawkins, Myka Lyles, Heather Gabriele Tornadoes are violent winds that rotate from a super cell down to the ground. They rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise
More informationColorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February
More informationSevere Thunderstorm Forecasting and Climatology in Arizona. Ken Drozd Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA/NWS Tucson, AZ
Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting and Climatology in Arizona Ken Drozd Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA/NWS Tucson, AZ THUNDERSTORM FORMATION All thunderstorms result from the same necessary conditions
More informationP4.479 A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SPC HIGH RISK OUTLOOKS,
P4.479 A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SPC HIGH RISK OUTLOOKS, 2003-2009 Jason M. Davis*, Andrew R. Dean 2, and Jared L. Guyer 2 Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN 2 NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman,
More informationSummary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment
Summary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment The Tararua and Rimutaka ranges have a large influence on the climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment. The ranges shelter
More informationTornadogenesis in Supercells: The Three Main Ingredients. Ted Funk
Tornadogenesis in Supercells: The Three Main Ingredients Ted Funk NWS Louisville, KY Spring 2002 Environmental Parameters Supercells occur within environments exhibiting several wellknown characteristics
More informationNatGasWeather.com Daily Report
NatGasWeather.com Daily Report Issue Time: 5:15 pm EST Sunday, February 28 th, 2016 for Monday, Feb 29 th 7-Day Weather Summary (February 28 th March 5 th ): High pressure will dominate much of the US
More information10. Severe Local Storms (Thunderstorms)
10. Severe Local Storms (Thunderstorms) Hail. Can be larger than softball (10 cm in diameter) Smaller damage ratios, but over large areas In USA causes more than $1 billion crop and property damage each
More informationA COMPREHENSIVE 5-YEAR SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES 3. RESULTS
16A.4 A COMPREHENSIVE 5-YEAR SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES Russell S. Schneider 1 and Andrew R. Dean 1,2 1 DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center 2 OU-NOAA Cooperative
More informationEvaluation of Extreme Severe Weather Environments in CCSM3
Evaluation of Extreme Severe Weather Environments in CCSM3 N. McLean, C. Radermacher, E. Robinson, R. Towe, Y. Tung June 24, 2011 The ability of climate models to predict extremes is determined by its
More informationStorms. Tropical Cyclone?
Storms Tropical Cyclone? Tropical Cyclone: low pressure storm forming in the tropics (Start as Thunder Storms). They form around a center, producing heavy winds and rains. Storms What strengthens a Tropical
More informationAdvanced Spotter Training: Anticipating Severe Weather Threats. Professor Paul Sirvatka College of DuPage Meteorology
Advanced Spotter Training: Anticipating Severe Weather Threats College of DuPage Meteorology Preparing for Severe Weather Preparedness involves understanding the probable and potential threats. Understanding
More information3/5/2013 UNCERTAINTY IN HURRICANE FREQUENCY: HOW MODELERS APPROACH THE PROBLEM PROBLEM STATEMENT
UNCERTAINTY IN HURRICANE FREQUENCY: HOW MODELERS APPROACH THE PROBLEM Matthew Nielsen Director, Product Management PROBLEM STATEMENT Hurricane Frequency Isn t Stable Over Time Are historical average frequencies
More informationDrought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico
Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico David S. Gutzler University of New Mexico gutzler@unm.edu * The big drought of 2018 * Longer term challenges for water supply * Forecasting streamflow Elephant
More informationUPPLEMENT A COMPARISON OF THE EARLY TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES TO THE 1930S AND 1950S DROUGHT EPISODES
UPPLEMENT A COMPARISON OF THE EARLY TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES TO THE 1930S AND 1950S DROUGHT EPISODES Richard R. Heim Jr. This document is a supplement to A Comparison of the Early
More informationCase Study: Severe Thunderstorm Over Fairbanks, AK on 8 th of June, 1997
Case Study: Severe Thunderstorm Over Fairbanks, AK on 8 th of June, 1997 Michael Richmond NWS - WFO Fairbanks 23 August, 2007 Introduction: Thunderstorms are a prominent feature of the Alaska Interior
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales sroot@weatherbank.com OCTOBER 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: July 18, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: July 18, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JUNE 2014 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature for
More informationSevere Weather. Copyright 2006 InstructorWeb
Severe Weather People need to know what the weather is going to do. Sometimes severe weather can happen. Severe weather can cause property damage, injuries to people and animals, and even loss of life.
More information