Weekly Weather Flash. Oct.25- Nov.07. United States. Europe

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Rebecca Hill
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Weekly Weather Flash Oct.25- Nov.07 United States Oct. 25 31: October Ends with a Warmer and Wetter Week; Halloween Brings Tricks, Including Rain for Some and Scary Cold for Others Nov.

1 Weekly Weather Flash Oct.25- Nov.07 United States Oct : October Ends with a Warmer and Wetter Week; Halloween Brings Tricks, Including Rain for Some and Scary Cold for Others Nov. 1 7: Cold Conditions in the West Boost Seasonal Demand, but the East Will Stay Warmer than Last Year Europe Oct : Still a Warmer-East, Colder-West Split for the Halloween weekend Nov. 1 7: A Reversal of the Split, with a Colder East and Warmer West

October 27, 2015 United States Week of October 25 31 Temperature vs.

seasonal demand. Halloween outlook: Trick- or- treaters can expect a wet Halloween in the South Central region, though it will be dry and colder in the Northeast.

Tropical rain in the East: Remnant rainfall from Hurricane Patricia will move northeastward from the central Gulf Coast to New England through the middle of the week.

2 October 27, 2015 United States Week of October Temperature vs. Last Year Rainwear +13% Boots - 3% Electric Blankets - 6% Source: Planalytics Retail implications: The warmer end of October across much of the Central and Eastern US will hinder seasonal demand. Halloween outlook: Trick- or- treaters can expect a wet Halloween in the South Central region, though it will be dry and colder in the Northeast. Last year, the US saw a cold Halloween: The week started as the warmest last week of October since 2010, but later turned colder, and Halloween was the coldest it had been since Tropical rain in the East: Remnant rainfall from Hurricane Patricia will move northeastward from the central Gulf Coast to New England through the middle of the week. A low pressure system will bring rain from the Pacific Northwest to the southern Rockies and Southern Plains by the week s end. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: H K: CN: Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 2

October 27, 2015 United States Week of November 1-7 Temperature vs.

consumables and cold weather apparel can be expected in the West.

snowfall they had seen in the beginning of November since 1993.

3 October 27, 2015 United States Week of November 1-7 Temperature vs. Last Year Heaters - 10% Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Demand for seasonal merchandise in the East will continue to be limited due to the warm weather, while demand for hot consumables and cold weather apparel can be expected in the West. Last year, this week was the warmest since 2010: The US saw the warmest and wettest first week of November since 2010, though interior locations in the Northeast received the greatest snowfall they had seen in the beginning of November since Continued warmth in the East: The unseasonably warm temperatures for areas east of the Rocky Mountains will make it feel not very fall- like in the East. Rain and mountain snow: A series of low pressure systems will bring rain and higher- elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin. Light rain showers are likely from the Plains to the East Coast. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: HK: CN: Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 3

October 27, 2015 Europe Week of October 25 31 Temperature vs.

expect improved seasonal demand, while warmth in the East will limit demand for fall categories.

Europe will register warmer temperatures than seen at the end of October 2014.

spreading heavy rain from Southwestern Europe to Italy.

4 October 27, 2015 Europe Week of October Temperature vs. Last Year Knitwear (Hungary) Porridge (Great Britain) Source: Planalytics Retail implications: The colder West can expect improved seasonal demand, while warmth in the East will limit demand for fall categories. Continued East- West split: The West will remain colder than last year, while much of Eastern and Southeastern Europe will register warmer temperatures than seen at the end of October Heavy rain in the Southwest: An upper- atmosphere low pressure system will edge closer to the western coast, spreading heavy rain from Southwestern Europe to Italy. The storms will weaken as they move inland, bringing lighter showers across the mainland. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY US: H K: CN: Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 4

October 27, 2015 Europe Week of November 1 7 Temperature vs.

categories and cold- weather consumables, though the weather will be warmer than last year. Fall demand will finally reach the East.

Scandinavia will keep its warmer- than- normal weather.

5 October 27, 2015 Europe Week of November 1 7 Temperature vs. Last Year Soup (Poland) Hoodie (Ireland) Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Western Europe will continue to see positive weather demand for fall product categories and cold- weather consumables, though the weather will be warmer than last year. Fall demand will finally reach the East. A reversal of fortune: The pattern flips as Western areas become warmer than last year, while the East will trend much cooler. Scandinavia will keep its warmer- than- normal weather. The South will stay wet: Several storm systems will track across the Mediterranean Basin, generating more heavy rain. Some light rain or snow will move across Northern Scandinavia, while drier weather will cover the remainder of the continent. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: HK: CN: Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 5

6 October 27, 2015 Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: Hong Kong: China: Filippo Battaini Marie Driscoll, CFA John Harmon, CFA Aragorn Ho John Mercer Shoshana Pollack Kiril Popov Jing Wang Steven Winnick HONG KONG: 10th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: LONDON: Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0) NEW YORK: 1359 Broadway, 9 th Floor New York, NY Tel: FBICGROUP.COM DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: HK: CN: Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 6

Weekly Weather Flash. Europe Oct : Cooler West, Warmer East.

Weekly Weather Flash. Europe Oct : Cooler West, Warmer East. Weekly Weather Flash Oct.18 - Oct.31 United States Oct. 18 24: A Cold Start and Warming Up Throughout the Week. Heavy Rain and Flooding for the West & Plains. Oct. 25 31: Halloween Revelers Will be Treated