The Global Imprint of Warming on Life

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1 AAAS/Carnegie PCAST Climate Change Report Anniversary, DC 2015 The Global Imprint of Warming on Life Camille Parmesan Professor, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, England Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin

2 High Consistency among Global Meta-analyses of Recent Changes in Biological Systems Study N: species + functional groupings % Changing: distribution/ phenology % changes consistent with Climate Change Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003 Root et al. Nature 2003 Root et al. PNAS 2005 Rosenzweig et al Nature 2008 Poloczanska et al. Nature Climate Change % 84 % % 82.3 % % 55 studies - 90 % % 83 %

3 Trends in Land and Ocean Temperatures past 50 years Temperature change ( C/decade) Burrows et al.science 2011

4 Velocity of Temperature Shifts in Space km/decade geographic shifts of isotherms slow moderate fast Rate of change in locations of temperature isotherms in past 50 years (km/decade) Burrows et al. Science 2011

5 Species Shifting into Historically Cooler Lands and Waters Terrestrial: mean shift = 4 & 11 mi/decade (2 meta- analyses) Purple emperor Butterflies > 124 miles in 5 yrs Marine: mean shift = 47 mi/decade (1 meta- analysis) bony fish: >124 mi/dec Atlantic cod diatom ~250 mi/dec Poloczanska et al Nature Climate Change 2013; Chen et al. Science 2011; Parmesan Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst 2006; Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003; Parmesan et al. Nature 1999

6 Velocity of Recent Temperature Isotherms Shifts (VoCC) Correctly Predicts Observed Range Shifts: Use to predict sources, corridors, barriers & sinks Burrows et al. Nature 2014 Stable Refugia Movement Into Species Gains Net Outflow Species Loss Inflow & Termination Sinks Mild Sink Non-moving Corridors Strong Sources Strong Sink Slow moving Convergence Mild Sources Sink & Barrier

7 Northward expansion of A iris: * Baltic was barrier (lag of years) * Rapid expansion after arrival in FN & SW * Both correctly predicted by VoCC 2 independent invasions Purple emperor (Apatura iris) P Schappert Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982; Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. comm.

8 white lemuroid possum, Australia Mountaintop species going extinct at lowest elevations pika, USA & Nepal apollo, Europe & Nepal

9 Spring advancing 3-4 d/decade Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade

10 Spring advancing 3-4 d/decade Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1)

11 Spring advancing 3-4 d/decade Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1) Juvenile fish & zooplankton (12) faster than phytoplankton (6) & molluscs (0)

12 Nearly ¾ of plants in long- term UK dataset are driven only by spring temperatures Warmer springs cause advanced flowering Observed changes in timing of first flowering Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012

13 For species that require winter chilling: Winter warming causes delay Spring warming causes advancement Observed changes are sum of two opposing drivers Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012

14 Signs Of Climate Change in DC red maple only respond to spring warming: flowering earlier creeping phlox

15 Signs Of Climate Change in DC mock strawberry spring advance + winter delay = little change dandelion

16 Precipitation can be stronger driver than temperature California study 64 plant species censuses in 1930s and 2000s 72 % of plants shifted downslope: o 269 ft. on average Temperatures increased: o F (mean annual) Rain & snow increased across northern half of CA Downward expansions followed increased water availability Crimmins et al. Science 2011

17 California Change in total annual precipitation (mm): time periods vs

18 Mountain hemlock expanded 837 ft downhill in California Since 1930s temperature 5 F water deficit 5.3 in. Photo: Charles Webber, California Academy of Sciences

19 Summary responses of wild species to 0.7 C global increase since 1900 ~ half of species have shifted their ranges poleward ( km) and/or upward (up to 400 m) ~ two-thirds of species studied have shifted towards earlier spring breeding, migrating, blooming. Every major group studied has been affected trees, herbs, butterflies, birds, mammals, amphibians, corals, invertebrates, fish, marine mammals & plankton New research documents complex responses - prior studies of proportion of species impacted by climate change are underestimates Parmesan AREES 2006; Parmesan et al. Nature CC 2013; Poloczanska et al. Nature CC 2013; Parmesan & Hanley Ann Botany in press

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21 All plants were equally sensitive to spring warming, but differing responses to winter warming drove differences in observed shifts in timing of flowering Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012