Global Ocean Heat Content (0-700m) Other signs of (global) warming. Global Sea Level Rise. Change in upper ocean temperature ( )
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1 Global Ocean Heat Content (0-700m) Change in upper ocean temperature ( ) 0.25C 0.50C Solid lines are three independent estimates (95% confidence interval in grey) IPCC 2007 Fig TS.16 Trends in ocean temperature (averaged east-west) from warming > 0.125C cooling < 0.125C IPCC 2007 Fig 5.3 Global Sea Level Rise Other signs of (global) warming ooo Reconstructed --- Satellite *** Tide gauge Rate of change: 1.7mm/yr 20 th Century 3.0mm/yr since melting mountain glaciers - rising sea level (due to warming and ice-melt) - timing of seasonal events e.g. earlier thaws, later frosts - thinning and disappearing Arctic sea ice - species range shifts (poleward and upward) - earlier blossom dates for hundreds of species At least half of the rise since 1960 is due to thermal expansion The remaining is due to melting glaciers and ice caps IPCC 2007 Fig TS.18
2 Observed changes in physical & biological systems NAM North America LA Latin America EUR Europe AFR Africa AS Asia ANZ Ausie/NZ PR Polar Regions TER Terrestrial MFW Marine/Fresh W GLO Global (All) - melting mountain glaciers - rising sea level (due to warming and ice-melt) - timing of seasonal events e.g. earlier thaws, later frosts - thinning and disappearing Arctic sea ice - species range shifts (poleward and upward) - earlier blossom dates for hundreds of species Every one of these data sets can be questioned.! Taken together, the totality of evidence of global warming over the past Century is quite convincing.! Of the changes seen in >29,000 data sets, 90% are in the direction expected as a response to warming Trends in Other signs of (global) warming IPCC 2007 WG2 Fig TS.1 20th Century Climate Warming seen over all land and ocean regions More in higher latitudes than in tropics; more over land than water Material taken from the most recent IPCC report What is the IPCC? Global Trends Regional Trends Pacific Northwest Summary IPCC 2007 Fig SPM4
3 Change in Permafrost Temperatures in Alaska Sea Ice Thickness Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends in 20th Century Climate Material taken from the most recent IPCC report What is the IPCC? Global Trends Regional Trends Pacific Northwest NSIDC nsidc.org Extent of Arctic sea ice has decreased by about 25% from n.b. measurements started in 1979 Temperature Precipitation Runoff & Stream flow Snow pack Summary
4 Puget Sound compared to Global Mean Puget Sound compared to Global Mean Temperature Trends by Station Precipitation Trends by Station 154 stations with long records Almost every station shows warming Urbanization not a major source of warming Cooler Warmer 3.6 F 2.7 F 1.8 F 0.9 F 165 stations with long records Most stations becoming wetter average increase of 2.9 inches (14%) however, it is more difficult to assess trends due to challenges in measuring precipitation Decrease Increase Mote 2003(a) Mote 2003(a)
5 Changes in Streamflow Trends in the Timing of Spring Runoff Peak of spring runoff is moving earlier into the spring throughout western US and Canada Advances of days between Greatest trends in PNW, Canada, and AK >30% of trends are statistically significant at the 90% level, especially in the PNW + 20 days later - 20 days earlier As the west warms, Spring flows increase and Summer flows drop. Source: Cayan et al. (in review). to Climate Change Changes in Snowmelt Runoff Timing in Western North America under a Business as Usual Climate Change Scenario, submitted Figure by Iris Stewart, Scripps (UCSD) The South Cascade glacier retreated dramatically in the 20th century 1928! Length of the Blue Glacier (Olympics)! About 800 meter recession since the early 1900s, and ~1500m since the early 1800s 1928! Courtesy of the USGS glacier group! Courtesy of the USGS glacier group! 2000! 2000!
6 Cascade snowpack has decreased in the last 80 years but Summary: Pacific Northwest Climate (~ ) Late 20 th Century Trends Temperature: there has been a regional warming trend Precipitation: no significant trend Runoff & Stream flow: peak flows are happening earlier in Spring; Summer flows are reduced Snow pack: decreased over the past 80 years But there is a lot of natural variability in each quantity, so attribution is not possible (yet) Projections of Future Climate Changes Impacts of Future Climate Changes But there is a lot of natural variability so attribution is not possible (yet) Trends in 20 th Century Climate Summary Material taken from the most recent IPCC report Global Trends Global, annual averaged temperature has increase ~0.85 C (1.5 F) in past 100 years Warmest in NH since at least 1000 years ago (limit of data for annual records) Regional Trends More warming over land than ocean More warming in high latidudes than tropics Warming at surface, aloft and in upper ocean Pacific Northwest About 1 C warmer since 1920 About 15% wetter Compared to 1950, Spring runoff is about days earlier, and stream flow has increased in spring and decreased in summer
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