Resilient deltas. Dr. Irina Overeem 1,2)
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1 Resilient deltas a case-study report on the Volga and Ganges delta systems Dr. Irina Overeem 1,2) 1) CSDMS, INSTAAR, University of Colorado, CO, Boulder, USA 2) Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Thanks to co-authors: S.B.Kroonenberg, T.Veldkamp, and S. Goodbred.
2 Outline Introduction: extreme rates of sea-level? Case-study: Volga delta over last century Case-study: Ganges delta at Early Holocene Conceptual framework: correlated change in sea- level and sediment supply.
3 What are extreme sea-level changes? Observed 20 th century sea-level change 1.7 mm/yr. m/yr. IPCC forecasts 1) for global sea-level change rates until 2099 vary from ~3-4 mm/yr depending on scenarios. Volga delta response to last century sea-level change (100 mm/yr) Ganges delta response to Early Holocene sea-level change (20 mm/yr) 1) Meehl, et al, 2007
4 Volga river drains 1,5 million km 2 and has wide fluvial dominated delta 250 km
5 Volga river and Caspian Sea Caspian Sea went through a 3-m sea-level cycle over the last century. (Source: Mahachkala gauge) Caspian Sea level is controlled by Volga discharge, which in turn depends on precipitation. Arpe et al.,( 2000) showed correlation with ENSO.
6 Delta progradation over last century (After Alekseevskiy, Aibulatov, Chistov, 1999), based on combination of old maps and surface topography.
7 just after regression just after transgression, highstand progradation lowstand aggradation Damchik Damchik Damchik lake lake lake A15 E14 E17 E5 A2 E Sea-level fall - low sediment supply Relative stable coast highstand 4 km Rapid progradation due to emergence, s.l. fall 0.6 m Slow progradation , despite additional 1.2m s.l. fall because of reduced sediment supply.
8 Rapid progradation , emergence and skeleton of channels lowstand, channel network fills coastline is stable despite 1,5 m sea level rise.
9 AquaTellUs numerical model erosion F in (0) Erosive flux depends on slope (S) and river discharge (Q) F in (x) sedimentation F depo (x) F out (x) F ero (x) x - 1 x x + 1 DOWNSTREAM stroomafwaarts Sedimentations flux depends on concentration (F) and water velocity (u).
10 Model simulation results Discontinuous sedimentation, large depocenter shifts Drowning of delta brings muds on top of sands (Overeem et al., 2003)
11 Ganges delta
12 Indian monsoon dominates Ganges (Source: BBC weather, 2005) Ganges River (Farakka station ) Q in m3/sec
13 Longterm Indian Monsoon Indian monsoon proxy: salinity in the Bengal basin (e.g. Kudrass et al., 2001). Indicates that paleo river discharges were higher. 35 sea surface salinity (ppm) time in ka 11 7 ka BP, exceptionally high Q
14 Sediment supply high at Early Holocene
15 Volume/Time of sediment stored in Ganges delta sequence tracks monsoonal record Isopach map of Ganges-Brahmaputra sediments deposited in Bengal basin since 11 kbp. Sediment volume is m 3, nearly 60% of which was stored from 11-7kBP. Implies 2.2 times higher flux at Early Holocene! (Goodbred et al., 1999, 2000)
16 Sedflux Stratigraphic Model 3DSedFlux INPUT(t) sea level(t), bathymetry (t-0) Q, Qs, Qb (HydroTrend) Details and Equations: Three-dimensional modeling of deltas Overeem et al., SEPM Spec Publ. NEWEST Version: Hutton, Syvitski (in press 2007), Computers and Geosciences. PROCESSES River: avulsion, floodplain SR Marine: delta plume, storms Basin: compaction, subsidence - 3D-geometry - grain size, age OUTPUT (x,z,t)
17 SedFlux simulation results Present-day Monsoon Conditions Ganges Increased Monsoon Conditions Ganges X-section at 30 km Brahmaputra Brahmaputra distance 80 km 500 year experiments (SLR = 2 m per 100yrs)
18 SedFlux simulations of rapid sea-level rise for a merging GB system Present-day Monsoon Conditions Sea-level rise 2 m/100 years -10 sea level simulation time distance 80km
19 SedFlux simulations of rapid sea-level rise for a merged GB system Y-section at 20 km; away from last depocenter Y-section at 50km; centered through last depocenter
20 SedFlux simulations of rapid sea-level rise for a merging GB system Present-day Monsoon Conditions Different Subsidence Rates low subsidence 4 mm/year uniformly over entire grid high subsidence 7.5 mm/year locally in graben distance 80 km uniform subsidence graben subsidence subsidence in mm/year distance 80 km
21 Concept: correlated controls Implication: delta system is more resilient to rising sea-level, because it is able to build rapidly. Implication: change is amplified, i.e. delta system is rapidly prograding due to emergence.
22 Discussion Interacting forces can be explored with numerical modeling. Several processes/modules need further research, notably supply mechanisms, and floodplain sedimentation. Deltas that have high sediment supply rates may be more resilient to sea-level change. A worst-case scenario?
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