Volcanic Hazards in Guatemala Dr. Matt Watson School of Earth Sciences
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1 Volcanic Hazards in Guatemala Dr. Matt Watson School of Earth Sciences Presentation to the Bristol Branch of the Geographical Association in September 2018
2 Image credit: Albert Dros.
3
4 Tectonic setting
5 Volcán de Fuego (& emissions)
6 Why quantify volcanic emissions? Indicators of volcanic activity Aircraft hazard mitigation Hazardous to population, wildlife, environment and infrastructure (including aircraft) Long-lived and climatologically active Image credit: (left to right): Ecuador Ciencia; Getty images; MODIS Science team; NASA-SOLVE
7 7 Image credit: USGS
8 Image credit: R.L. Rieger. U.S. Navy (top left) and Boeing
9 9 Image credit: Rolls Royce
10 Image credit: ICAO
11 11 Central American Volcanism
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13 Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala With paroxysms every 3-5 weeks Regular Strombolian activity 13 Image credits (left to right): IM Watson, Andy Shepherd/National Geographic
14 Aviation Hazards Volcano de Fuego, Monthly VAAs present 30 GUA 20 Fuego 40km 10 0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Source: Washington VAAC Observations Mobile FLIR RSAM Webcam
15 Aviation Hazards Volcano de Fuego, Monthly VAAs present 30 GUA 20 Fuego 40km 10 0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Observations Mobile FLIR RSAM Webcam VAAs Source: Washington VAAC
16 Aviation Hazards Volcano de Fuego, Monthly VAAs present 30 GUA 20 Fuego 40km 10 0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Observations Mobile FLIR RSAM Webcam VAAs Source: Washington VAAC Ashtams Airport
17 UoB Drones/Platforms taken to Guatemala
18 Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala Barrancas Fuego ~3km ~8km
19 Observatory Fixed Wing - Challenges & Operations 19
20 Observatory Fixed Wing - Challenges & Operations 20
21 Challenges - Operations 21
22 Onboard Sensors and Sampling In-plume sampling of fine ash Direct capture on to sticky carbon SEM stubs, for rapid analysis 22
23 Drop in throttle Plume Detection Upwards vertical acceleration Nose down correction
24 Plume Detection Temperature and humidity spike indicates plume Flight through cloud
25 Photogrammetry Feb 2016 Volume added: +44,850 m 3 over 4 days Extrusion rate: ~0.13 m 3 /s (~0.08 m 3 /s DRE) Average point density: 19 Feb: 635 m -2 (0.04 m) 23 Feb: 814 m -2 (0.035 m)
26 Outreach UAV/Drone training 26
27 The 3 rd June eruption of Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala
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29 Naismith et al., in review
30 Naismith et al., in review
31 Naismith et al., in review
32 Naismith et al., in review
33 Summary of pre-3 rd June activity Strongly cyclical Repeated sequence cone building > lava flow > paroxysm > PDCs Average repose period of about a month (until 2018) Failed (or at least less intense) paroxysm in Nov 2017 Longest repose was Feb June 2018
34 3 rd June eruption (AN and RE) 3 rd June eruption timeline This timeline has been assembled from INSIVUMEH (National Institute for Seismology, Volcanology, Hydrology and Meteorology) bulletins, CONRED (National Coordination for Disaster Reduction) reports, discussion with local actors and social media postings. Before 06:00 Sunday 3 rd June: eruption of Fuego begins, with strong vertical incandescent fountaining ejecting ballistic material. PDCs descending towards Barranca Santa Teresa (Seca, Figure 2.). Some early photos of the eruption by INSIVUMEH suggest it is a typical paroxysm. 07:30: small PDCs descend W flanks of volcano towards Panimache Uno, Sangre de Cristo. 09:00 09:30: eruption continues with explosive activity. Recorded as another paroxysmal eruption but no recorded activity that affects E flanks of volcano. 10:05: Eruption continues, generating PDCs down Barrancas Seca and Cenizas. Eruptive column moving towards W, N of volcano. 11:00 11:30: PDCs reported by CONRED; say evacuation still unnecessary. PDCs continue to travel down W flanks. 11:30 12:00: First descent of PDCs down Barranca Las Lajas. Evacuation of La Reunion golf resort begins. 12:00: heavy ashfall on roofs. Evacuation still not recommended by authorities. 12:55: Further PDCs descending Las Lajas. PDCs have already begun to burn upper slopes of La Reunion. All guests and 95% of personnel have been evacuated from La Reunion.
35 Timeline (cont.) Before 13:00: Vigorously convecting eruptive column visible from (NE)? of volcano. 13:45: Eruption column has increased in height to >10,000m asl and PDCs generated down all principal barrancas. INSIVUMEH issue report recommending evacuation of Sangre de Cristo inhabitants, and encourage careful monitoring of SE, S, SW flanks. Before 14:00: Descent of PFs down Barranca Las Lajas, visible from RN-14 E of volcano near Alotenango. Between 14:30 16:00: San Miguel Los Lotes completely destroyed by PDCs. 15:00 15:30: Reports of evacuations already underway. 15:15 16:15: Heavy ashfall in Antigua 15:25 15:35: Descent of series of powerful PDCs down Barranca Las Lajas. Twitter videos from La Prensa and NotiSeis show pedestrians and CONRED personnel on Las Lajas bridge immediately prior to, and during, descent of PDCs. Likely destruction of Las Lajas bridge and death of Juan Fernando Galindo (CONRED staff) between 15:30 and 15:35. 16:30: Report of PDCs reaching >8km from Fuego s summit down Barranca Las Lajas. Bridge still intact in a Tweet posted at 16:27, although photo does not have timestamp. Other Tweets suggest Las Lajas bridge may have already been destroyed by this time see 15:25 15:35. 16:30: Alert level for Fuego is currently orange [Alert level for Fuego is set by CONRED]. Before 16:40: Las Lajas bridge is obstructed due to volcanic material, communities trapped. RN-14 blocked by volcanic material at km95. 16:55: INSIVUMEH issue report that PDCs are underway down Barrancas Seca and Cenizas. Reports that Panimache, Palo Verde, and Sangre de Cristo have already been evacuated by CONRED. Ash fall reported to W, NW, N of volcano. Before 17:30: Rescue efforts underway of families in San Miguel Los Lotes devastated by PDC descent. 17:30 18:00: Further PDCs descending Las Lajas?
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39 Conclusions Geography and Earth Sciences degrees enable you to work at the interface between science and people A PhD in Geography has allowed me to travel the world, and to do fun stuff like flying drones over (and occasionally into) volcanoes I enjoy my work because it is both fascinating scientifically and makes a difference to peoples lives on the ground Bristol University is world class in a number of fields of which volcanology is one example
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