Modeling Smart Growth in the Southeast Using Smart-SLEUTH. November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM Monica A. Dorning

Transcription

1 Modeling Smart Growth in the Southeast Using Smart-SLEUTH November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM Monica A. Dorning

2 (Sub)Urbanization in the Southeast November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 2

3 Charlotte NC Observed Patterns 1976 Forest & Farmland Developed Land Water Charlotte 3% 2% Km 95% Meentemeyer et al FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM M. A. Dorning 3

4 Charlotte NC Observed Patterns 1986 Forest & Farmland Developed Land Water Charlotte 5% 2% Km 93% Meentemeyer et al FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM M. A. Dorning 4

5 Charlotte NC Observed Patterns 1996 Forest & Farmland Developed Land Water Charlotte 16% 2% Km 82% Meentemeyer et al FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM M. A. Dorning 5

6 Charlotte NC Observed Patterns 2006 Forest & Farmland Developed Land Water Charlotte 24% 2% Km 74% Meentemeyer et al FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure using a patch-growing algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM M. A. Dorning 6

7 Charlotte NC Observed Patterns 2006 Forest & Farmland Developed Land Water Charlotte 24% 2% Km 74% *Example impacted systems not georeferenced November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM M. A. Dorning 7

8 Preparing for change CURRENT FUTURE? Figures from Terrando et al The Southern Megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S. PLoS One 9(7): November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 8

9 Enhanced modeling capabilities Scenarios: Model urbanization using intuitive scenario building parameters Patterns: Control over size and shape of new developments Decisions: Optional inclusion of varying levels of human decision making GUI: User friendly interface to calibrate model and parameterize scenarios Model development: Open source model development platform for future improvements November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 9

10 PEOPLE LOCATION PATTERN QUANTITY November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 10

11 DRIVERS Suitability for development based on spatially explicit land change drivers Slope Roads Development pressure November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 11

12 DRIVERS Suitability for development based on spatially explicit land change drivers High Low Slope Roads Development pressure November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 12

13 DEMAND Estimated demand for urbanization base on historical trends in per capita land use November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 13

14 STRUCTURE Figure from Hua et al Simulating urban growth using the SLUETH model in a coastal peri-urban district in China November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 14

15 Number STRUCTURE Adjustable parameters: SHAPE Size distribution Distribution of Development patches Compactness Area November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 15

16 DECISIONS Are landowners willing to sell land to developers? SELL LAND? November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 16

17 DECISIONS SELL LAND? November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 17

18 DECISIONS EXAMPLE AGENT SYSTEM: Owners of undeveloped land PROBABILITY OF AGENT DECISIONS Agent typologies SELL LAND DO NOTHING Agent 1: Economic Values High Low Agent 2: Aesthetic Values Low High Agent 3: Ecosystem Values Medium Medium November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 18

19 DECISIONS EXAMPLE AGENT SYSTEM: Owners of undeveloped land PROBABILITY OF AGENT DECISIONS Agent typologies SELL LAND DO NOTHING Agent 1: Economic Values High Low Agent 2: Aesthetic Values Low High Agent 3: Ecosystem Values Medium Medium P(land sale Agent n) ~ age + income + education + location + November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 19

20 Internal Factors DECISIONS PGA STRUCTURE LANDSCAPE PATTERNS Feedbacks External Factors DEMAND Spatial Factors DRIVERS November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 20

21 Scenario Analysis Adjustable Parameters for Scenario Building 1. Incentive spatial distribution of development across study extent 2. Demand quantity of development or development density 3. Constraint limits to development in specific locations 4. Decisions adjust decision making responses November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 21

22 Scenario Analysis Status Quo November 20, 2014 SOUTH ATLANTIC LCC WEB FORUM 22