Modelling the influence of land use and land cover change on ecosystem services

Transcription

1 Modelling the influence of land use and land cover change on ecosystem services Peter Verburg Institute for Environmental Studies VU University Amsterdam With contributions of: Derek van Berkel, Wieteke Willemen, Diego Valbuena

2 How do we represent the land system in models? Yann Arthus-Bertrand

3 IMAGE model; Bouwman et al.; Alcamo et al.

4 Scale

5 What is the correct resolution???????

6 How do we represent the land system in models? Agricultural management representation: Homogenous within world regions Land cover representation Spatial resolution: Approx. 5x5km

7 Intensity of agriculture in 6. LUCAS points (N/ha) LUCAS 23, 26 CAPRI 2

8 -intended -unintended

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10 From land cover to land use to land function Land cover can be a cause, constraint or consequence of land use (Cihlar and Jansen, 2) -intended -unintended Land functions: the capacity of the land to provide goods and services Verburg et al., 29 Journal of Environmental Management

11 Challenges for ecosystem services research Quantification and mapping.. Modelling. Communicating and discussing.

12 Quantification and mapping Methods depend on scale Local scale: Direct observation/measurement of land function indicators (actual provision of goods/services) -tourists recreational function -species (agro)biodiversity -water regulation peak flow measurements etc. Regional/continental scale: Use of location factors/proxies to determine land functions -beach recreational function -agricultural intensity agro-biodiversity

13 Quantification and mapping: regional scale Socio-economic properties Biophysical properties Landscape configuration Service provision Land use/cover

14 Quantification and mapping: regional scale Tourism function Variable Beta estim ate SD Variation coefficien t VIF Intercept Agriculture 5m (%) Distance to highway (m) Distance to nature >km2 (m) Distance to swimming location Local roads 5 m (%) Openness (m) Nature 5m (%) Tourism accomodation Clustered nature 5km (%) Accessible nature, 5m (%) Ugly elements, 5m (%) Willemen et al.,28. Landscape and urban planning

15 Quantification and mapping: regional scale Function capacity Plant Residential Cult. Arable Int. Tourism habitat heritage Leisure livestock prod. Summed capacity of landscape functions (-3) Multifunctionality: increase of total capacity to provide goods and services Number of functions Multifunctionality: decrease of capacity per landscape function Willemen et al., 29 (Ecological Indicators)

16 Quantification and mapping: regional scale Evaluation of policy plans and development trends Mapping changes in service supply and value (market price) between 2-25 Service supply Economic value

17 Quantification and mapping: European scale Approach based on location factors and proxies of landscape functions Define which land cover types and landscape conditions support ecosystem services Map spatial distribution of ecosystem services Kienast et al., 29. Environmental Management

18 3.4 nature protection area 3.3 wetlands (Corine unit 4) 3.2 waterbodies (Corine unit 5) 3. shrub& herbaceous (Corine unit 3.2) 3. permanent crops (Corine unit 2.2) 3.9 pastures (Corine unit 2.3) 3.8 open space with little or no vegetation (Corine unit 3.3) 3.7 heterogeneous agric. areas (Corine unit 2.4) 3.6 forested area (Corine unit 3.) 3.5 intertidal flats area (corine unit 4.2.3) 3.4 arable land (Corine unit 2.) 3.3 presence (%) or absence (%) of functional urban area with more than > 5 inhabitants in NUTS-X region 3.2 artificial surface (Corine unit ) 3. coastline 2.2 higher than 5m a.s.l 2. up to 5m a.s.l.3 steppic.2 arctic. all Europe except arctic & steppic Non-weighted links (nwl) between land characteristics and landscape functions ( = indifferent role ; = supportive role) Cultural & artistic information Recreation & tourism Aesthetic information Habitat function Biological control Erosion prevention Waste treatment Water regulation Natural hazards reduction Climate regulation Energy( biofuel&renewable energy) Transportation & housing Commercial forest products Cultivated products Wildlife products Number of independent land characteristic Landscape functions (Lf) Land characteristics (lc) Define which land cover types and landscape conditions support ecosystem services (experts)

19 Map spatial distribution of ecosystem services Kienast et al., 29 Environmental Mngmnt.

20 Quantification and mapping: European scale Tourism function Legend Function VALUE Low Moderate High Expert Van Berkel and Verburg, in prep. Statistical

21 Modelling. Mostly based on land cover modelling Ecosystem service change is analyzed as effect of land cover change Scenario Land cover change simulation Ecosystem service assessment

22 Modelling.a multi-scale, multi-model approach Global models Regional models Indicator models Ecosystem services CLUE-Scanner New generic platform Open source, etc. etc. Verburg et al, 28. Annals of Regional Science Verburg and Overmars, 29. Landscape Ecology

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24 Modelling.a multi-scale, multi-model approach Assessing the impact of European Biofuels policy Effects of: Biofuel targets in OECD countries on Europe European Biofuel policies within and outside Europe A study for DG ENVIRONMENT (29) With: JP Lesschen, I Staritsky, M Perez Soba, M Hilferink M van Beek, E Koomen, M Banse, E Stehfest, AG Prins

25 Impact of Biofuel Directives on Agricultural Land Use, in million ha, 23 relative to CLUE-Scanner Africa Asia C&SAmer EU27 NAFTA World Reference Biofuel, w/o EU Biofuel, with EU Martin Banse; Results of GTAP model DG-ENV project

26 Reference scenario (B) (2-23) CLUE-Scanner

27 Global directives only (2-23) 23)

28 Global and European directives (2-23) 23)

29 Carbon sequestration Current C-sequestration LULUFC CLUE-Scanner 2 23 Reference 23 Biofuel policies Method based on: Schulp et al., 28 Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

30 Modelling.a multi-agent approach Ecosystem services: -Agricultural production -Recreation/tourism -Cultural heritage -Landscape aesthetics -(agro)biodiversity -Residential area (rural living) Winterswijk municipality, the Netherlands

31 Modelling.a multi-agent approach Conceptualization of system Valbuena et al., 2. Landscape Ecology

32 Modelling.a multi-agent approach Agents decision-making Internal factors External factors Feedback Farm scale Ability Willingness Options Decisions Actions Policies & subsidies Demand Advice Social networks & institutions Regional scale Land-use pattern Feedback Valbuena et al., Landsc. Ecol., 2

33 Modelling.a multi-agent approach Agent typology Valbuena, Verburg, Bregt, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 28

34 Modelling.a multi-agent approach Processes modelled Farm expansion Land abandonment Management of treelines/hedgerows 2 23

35 Current Future situation result Landscape types

36 Modelling.some observations Most models treat ecosystem services as an indicator of land cover change Few models represent demand for non-commodity services explicitly (demand/supply relations needed) Model development, calibration and validation is difficult due to limited observations of ecosystem service changes

37 Communicating.trade-off analysis Trade-off analysis

38 Communicating.trade-off analysis Change in ecosystem services 2-25 Increase Decrease Plant habitat change Arable production change Willemen, Hein, Verburg, subm.

39 Communicating.visualisations A visualization of land abandonment for a case study area in Northern Portugal

40 Current situation Van Berkel, Ribeiro, Lovett and Verburg, in prep.

41 Scenario: continuation of abandonment Van Berkel, Ribeiro et al., in prep.

42 Scenario: rural development, multifunctionality Van Berkel, Ribeiro et al., in prep.

43 Communicating. Different rural futures provide a different bundle of ecosystem services Different stakeholders have a different demand and preference for ecosystem services national park local entrepreneurs Visualisations enable discussions about the tradeoffs and highlight the importance of spatial variation Visualisations (and models) are a tool for discussion support (validation based on success of supporting the negotiation process)

44 Synthesis and challenges No single method is perfect, portfolio approach needed to deal with multiple scales and sectors (Young et al., Ecol Soc 26) Attention for feedbacks Across scales: top-down and bottom-up Between impacts and drivers Ecosystem services change as result of land cover change Land cover change is a result of changing demand for ecosystem services Move from land cover to land function (ecosystem goods and services) Modelling is just a tool.....to help testing our understanding of the land system..to help answer specific questions..comparison of model representation and reality is needed to learn.

45 Thank you Institute for Environmental Studies VU University Amsterdam

46 From land cover to land use: Kenyan highlands Van de Steeg, Verburg et al. 2. Applied Geography

47 Quantification and mapping Monetary valuation vs. service supply -one consistent measure versus different units and measures Aggregate scale (administrative units?) vs. mapping Land use and land cover Climate Land functions Location characteristics Demographic Characteristics and demand