Managing Climate Risks on the Colorado River
|
|
- Ross Garrett
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Managing Climate Risks on the Colorado River Balaji Rajagopalan Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering & CIRES University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Symposium on Climate Risk Management Oct 10-12, 2011 Guayaquil, Ecuador
2 Acknowledgments Kevin Werner & Andy Wood CBRFC, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT Cameron Bracken, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Kenneth Nowak, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO & USBR Katrina Grantz USBR, Salt Lake City, UT Seasonal to Year-Two Colorado River Streamflow Prediction Workshop, Mar 21-22, 2011, Salt Lake City, UT
3 Colorado River Basin Overview 7 States, 2 Nations Upper Basin: CO, UT, WY, NM Lower Basin: AZ, CA, NV Fastest Growing Part of the U.S. Over 1,450 miles in length Basin makes up about 8% of total U.S. lands Highly variable Natural Flow which averages 15 MAF 60 MAF of total storage 4x Annual Flow 50 MAF in Powell + Mead Irrigates 3.5 million acres Serves 30 million people Very Complicated Legal Environment Law of the River Denver, Albuquerque, Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego all use CRB water DOI Reclamation Operates 1 acre-foot = 325,000 gals, 1 maf = 325 * 10 9 gals Mead/Powell 1 maf = 1.23 km 3 = 1.23*10 9 m 3
4 Below normal flows into Lake Powell %, 59%, 25%, 51%, 51%, respectively 2002 at 25% lowest inflow recorded since completion of Glen Canyon Dam Woodhouse et al., WRR, 2007 Motivation Recent conditions in the Paleo Context Some relief in % of normal inflows Not in 2006! 73% of normal inflows 2007 at 68% of Normal inflows 2008 at 111% of Normal inflows 2009 at 88% and 2010 at 72.5% 5 year running average Decadal Variability!
5 Needs Given the stress on the system (socio-economic & climate via droughts) skillful long-lead streamflow forecasts on the Colorado River Basin are crucial for efficient system management. Forecasts of spring (Apr-Jul) flow, the key inflow period are desired at lead times starting previous November at each month. Forecasts are required at a number of decision point locations on the River Basin. Need to Manage Climate Risk at short (seasonal to interannual) and long (multidecadal) time scales
6 Water Supply Forecast Overview (River Forecast Centers) (Water and Climate Center) SWS (Statistical Prediction) ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) Forecast Coordination Official Coordinate d Forecast Decisions Water Managers and Users Other Inputs....
7 Water Supply Forecast Methods Statistical Forecasting Statistical Regression Equations Primary NOAA/RFC forecast method from 1940 s to mid 1990 s. Primary NRCS/NWCC forecast method Historical Relationships between flow, snow, & precipitation ( ) Tied to a fixed runoff period (inflexible) Ensemble Simulation Model Forecasting A component of a continuous conceptual model (NWSRFS) Continuous real time inputs (temperature, precipitation, forecasts) Accounts for soil moisture states (SAC-SMA) - drives runoff efficiency Builds and melts snowpack (Snow-17) output feeds SAC-SMA Flexible run date, forecast period, forecast parameters. Evolving toward ESP as primary forecast tool at NOAA/RFCs
8 13 River Forecast Centers Established in the 1940s around major river basins for water supply forecasting Three primary missions: 1. Seasonal Water supply forecasts for water management 2. Daily forecasts for flood, recreation, water management 3. Flash flood warning support 4. Each RFC develops hydrologic models relevant for their basin/region River Forecast Centers They integrate short term and seasonal Forecasts from NWS/NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecasting Center Example
9 Weather and Climate Forecasts RFC forecast system incorporates both weather and climate forecasts: Weather forecasts integrated into daily operations with forecaster control over point and basin average values Water supply forecasts typically only use QPF during late season or in lower basin When QPF is used, it is used in a deterministic manner Climate forecasts integrated into seasonal water supply forecasts through probability shifts of forcing ensemble Climate forecasts are typically only considered in lower basin and only in ENSO years
10 General RFC Model Hydrologic Model Analysis Weather and Climate Forecasts Weather and Climate Forecasts Forecast precip / temp hydrologic expertise & judgment Analysis & Quality Control Observed Data model guidance River Forecast Outputs System Graphics parameters Calibration River Forecasts
11 RFC Models RFC forecast uses a snow model and a rainfall-runoff model: SNOW-17: Temperature index model for simulating snowpack accumulation and melt Snow Model: SNOW-17 Temperature Index Snow model Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model: Conceptual hydrologic model used to generate runoff
12 Key Steps in Model Building River basin is divided into homogeneous sub-basins based on topographical attributes (using GIS, Remote-sensing data etc.) For each sub-basin historic 6-hour weather (Precip., Tmax, Tmin) are developed for three regions higher, middle and lower elevations. All historic data is used in this process. Natural / unregulated streamflow data is also compiled The Hydrologic model is calibrated These are constantly updated
13 Key Steps in Model Building Process to assign parameter values to the runoff and snow modules within the model. Unique set for each basin (and sub-basin) Quality of calibration can vary greatly from basin to basin depending on data availability, period or record, quality of data, hydrology of the basin, etc. Archiving and Maintaining Data *Very Important*
14 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
15 CBRFC currently provides raw ensemble time series forecasts to several user groups: Denver Water Utility Pacificorps (Bear River, UT) USBR (Gunnison, Utah, and MTOM) Forecasts updated daily in winter/spring Available via CBRFC webpage ESP applications Hydrodata 15
16 Web Reference:
17 Dissemination / Verification The forecasts are disseminated online Ensembles provided as raw data / Hydrodata Very good visualization tools showing a suite of forecast and observed variables. / (links on the left column) Forecast Verification gov/ (Verification)
18 CBRFC Products RFCs (CBRFC in particular) are a source of wealth of information for hydrology and water supply. They provide current, forecast and historic information. Western US wide all aspects of water supply Water Supply Outlook Current Snow Conditions 0-14 day Outlook Reservoir Outlook NRCS - products
19 La Nina Winter 2011 Snowpack Maps / Data NRCS El Nina Winter 2010
20 Proposed Improvements Newer statistical models for multi-side ensemble streamflow forecasting are being tested and developed for integration with the CBRFC forecasting system (e.g., Bracken et al., 2011, Regonda et al., 2006) Using large-scale climate information with multi-model statistical ensemble forecasting techniques Current ESP limited (by the length of the historical data) in its ability to generate ensembles Stochastic weather generators can provide a rich variety of input daily weather ensembles Easy to condition them on probabilistic seasonal forecast (e.g., Apipattanavis, et al., 2007; Apipattanavis, 2008) Optimal combination of statistical and watershed model based forecasts
21 Bracken et al. 2010, WRR Using Climate Information for long lead Streamflow Forecast
22 Water Resources Management (Interannual time scale) Reservoir Operations 12 major reservoirs (9 Upper, 3 Lower Basin) Seasonal/Monthly forecasts are input to the systems model In RiverWare contains all the operating rules and constraints Obtain mid-term reservoir conditions (storage, elevation, release, hydropower, etc.) Close coordination between
23 Seasonal to Two Year Simulation and Forecasting Hidden Markov model for simulation and forecasting Seasonal Forecast Historical Data Mo. Traces HMM Forecast Midterm Operations Model Probabilistic Reservoir Outlook Pool Elevation [feet] Western Water Assessment Month
24 Water Resources Data/Information USBR archives and disseminates historical streamflow and reservoir data; current status; operating plans; real time releases etc. The stakeholders and general public can get a very good idea of the state of the resources Current Reservoir Levels Current snowpack in the sub-basins Operating Plans, Historic Data Current Reservoir Status
25 Decadal Scale Stochastic Streamflow Simulation and Water Resources Management Analysis of natural and paleo flow variability Identify spatially persistent modes of flow variability Wavelet spectral methods and principal component analysis Identify potential climatic drivers of variability Spectral coherence with climate indices; correlation with climate variables Develop simulation methods that reflect variance analysis Capture historic/simulate future spectrum; condition on climate projection Colorado River Water Resources Management Analysis of CRSS model to identify system components sensitive to certain flow or variance regimes Develop adaptive management policies to demonstrate improved system outcomes associated with variability understanding Western Water Assessment
26 Wavelet Power Spectrum of Lees Ferry Flow Features of interest 1) decadal (active past 30 years) 2) Low frequency (more persistent) Raw WY flow and precipitation correlation = 0.77 Raw WY flow and WY temperature correlation = 0.32 UCRB PRISM Temperature Spectrum Western Water Assessment UCRB PRISM Precipitation Spectrum
27 Decadal Flow Projection Given Application persistent to 2 periods low frequency of paleo variability data (natural flow and paleo data) mode, what can previous conditions inform about future characteristics? Right, 1925 to year mean flow projections Below, 1634 to year mean flow projections? Western Water Assessment
28 Thoughts/Ideas for Transfer to Other Context RFC structure should be seriously considered for Hydrologic Forecast Effective interface with weather/climate forecasts Data collection / management Robust collection and archiving of meteorologic and, hydrologic data in particular, is critical for skillful forecasts Resources from Met services, and State agencies can be pooled Close coordination and collaboration with Water Management and state holders in the basin Effective outreach online dissemination, weekly/monthly outlook briefings, workshops Model Development/Improvement This is always an on-going process. The forecasting framework need to be constantly improved, calibrated and validated. Need to have a good capacity and human resources building strategy
Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting. Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide river and flood forecasts
More informationReclamation Perspective on Operational Snow Data and Needs. Snowpack Monitoring for Streamflow Forecasting and Drought Planning August 11, 2015
Reclamation Perspective on Operational Snow Data and Needs Snowpack Monitoring for Streamflow Forecasting and Drought Planning August 11, 2015 2 Reclamation Operational Modeling 3 Colorado Basin-wide Models
More informationMid-term Operations Probabilistic Model of the Colorado River Basin
Mid-term Operations Probabilistic Model of the Colorado River Basin Tony Powell Precision Water Resources Engineering Daniel Bunk Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region RiverWare User Group Meeting NCAR/UCAR
More informationNATIONAL WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 24 th Hydrology Conference 9.2 James Noel Service Coordination Hydrologist National Weather Service-Ohio River Forecast Center
More informationOperational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation
Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA USA Outline Operational
More informationDK DM M EMORANDUM D ECEMBER 28, 2018 SUBJECT:
TO: CC: FROM: SUBJECT: BOARD OF DIRECTORS M EMORANDUM D ECEMBER 28, 2018 ANDY MUELLER, GENERAL MANAGER DAVE DK KANZER, P.E. & DON MEYER, P.E. DK DM COLORADO RIVER BASIN WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS UPDATE AND
More informationForecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Forecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center John Lhotak, Development and Operations Hydrologist Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Workshop May 16th, 2018 1 River Forecast Centers
More informationUSA National Weather Service Community Hydrologic Prediction System
USA National Weather Service Community Hydrologic Prediction System Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA Background Outline
More informationNational Weather Service. Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist in Charge
National Weather Service Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist in Charge Goals Organization Role of the River Forecast Center Describe Forecast System & Tools Other Details NWS River Forecast Centers Northwest River
More informationNOAA s National Weather Service
NOAA s National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Developing Climate-Informed Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts over the Colorado River Basin W. Paul Miller Colorado Basin River Forecast
More informationFolsom Dam Water Control Manual Update
Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Public Workshop April 3, 2014 Location: Sterling Hotel Ballroom 1300 H Street, Sacramento US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG WELCOME & INTRODUCTIONS 2 BUILDING
More informationSummary of SARP Kickoff Workshop 10/1/ /2/2012
Summary of SARP Kickoff Workshop 10/1/2012-10/2/2012 On October 1 st a kickoff meeting for the Integrating Climate Forecasts and Reforecasts into Decision Making SARP project was held in Salt Lake City
More informationForecast Methods, Products, and Services for the San Joaquin River Basin. Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program
NOAA s s National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Forecast Methods, Products, and Services for the San Joaquin River Basin Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge Mission of NWS Hydrologic
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System February 7, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System February 7, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
More informationRainfall-River Forecasting: Overview of NOAA s Role, Responsibilities, and Services
Dr. Thomas Graziano Chief Hydrologic Services Division NWS Headquarters Steve Buan Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS North Central River Forecast Center Rainfall-River Forecasting: Overview of NOAA
More informationColorado River Management under Uncertainty
Colorado River Management under Uncertainty Terry Fulp Deputy Regional Director Lower Colorado Region WRRC Annual Meeting June 24, 2008 Colorado River Management under Uncertainty Overview of Colorado
More informationFORECAST-BASED OPERATIONS AT FOLSOM DAM AND LAKE
FORECAST-BASED OPERATIONS AT FOLSOM DAM AND LAKE 255 237 237 237 217 217 217 200 200 200 0 163 131 Bridging the Gap163Conference 255 0 132 255 0 163 122 The Dana on Mission Bay San Diego, CA January 28,
More informationAPPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES
APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering For presentation at Workshop on Regional Climate Research NCAR
More informationWSWC/NOAA Workshops on S2S Precipitation Forecasting
WSWC/NOAA Workshops on S2S Precipitation Forecasting San Diego, May 2015 Salt Lake City at NWS Western Region HQ, October 2015 Las Vegas at Colorado River Water Users Association, December 2015 College
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationNOAA Water Resources Monitor and Outlook
NOAA Water Resources Monitor and Outlook 1 Andrea J. Ray, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Michelle Stokes, NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, and the WRMO steering team: Robert Hartman -
More informationHyMet Company. Streamflow and Energy Generation Forecasting Model Columbia River Basin
HyMet Company Streamflow and Energy Generation Forecasting Model Columbia River Basin HyMet Inc. Courthouse Square 19001 Vashon Hwy SW Suite 201 Vashon Island, WA 98070 Phone: 206-463-1610 Columbia River
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017 Mountain snowpack in the higher elevations has continued to increase over the last two weeks. Statewide, most low and mid elevation snow has melted so the basin
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin February 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast February 6, 2018
Upper Missouri River Basin February 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast February 6, 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 23, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 23, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet
More informationApplications/Users for Improved S2S Forecasts
Applications/Users for Improved S2S Forecasts Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University WSWC Precipitation Forecasting Workshop June 7-9, 2016 San Diego, CA First -- A short background
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationP1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
P1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Andrea J. Ray 1, Joseph J. Barsugli 1,2, and Thomas Hamill 1 1 NOAA Earth Systems
More informationRobert Shedd Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, Massachusetts, USA
Robert Shedd Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, Massachusetts, USA Outline River Forecast Centers FEWS Implementation Status Forcing Data Ensemble Forecasting The Northeast
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationMissouri River Basin Climate Outlook 1 May Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ.
Missouri River Basin Climate Outlook 1 May 2014 Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ. dennis.todey@sdstate.edu 605-688-5141 Photo taken Feb 19, 2013 General Information Providing
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017 Mountain snowpack continues to maintain significant levels for mid-april. By late March, statewide snowpack had declined to 118 percent of normal after starting
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management
Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Navigator s Meeting February 12, 2014 Bill Doan, P.E. Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING
More informationThe Documentation of Extreme Hydrometeorlogical Events: Two Case Studies in Utah, Water Year 2005
The Documentation of Extreme Hydrometeorlogical Events: Two Case Studies in Utah, Water Year 2005 Tim Bardsley1*, Mark Losleben2, Randy Julander1 1. USDA, NRCS, Snow Survey Program, Salt Lake City, Utah.
More informationIncorporating Large-Scale Climate Information in Water Resources Decision Making
Incorporating Large-Scale Climate Information in Water Resources Decision Making Balaji Rajagopalan Dept. of Civil, Env.. And Arch. Engg.. And CIRES Katrina Grantz, Edith Zagona (CADSWES) Martyn Clark
More informationModeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan
Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan The Dworshak reservoir, a project operated by the Army Corps
More informationKootenai Basin Water Supply Update and Sturgeon Flow Augmentation Kootenai Valley Resource Initiative
Kootenai Basin Water Supply Update and Sturgeon Flow Augmentation Kootenai Valley Resource Initiative Greg Hoffman Fishery Biologist / Kootenai River Basin Flood Engineer Libby Dam 15 May 2017 US Army
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationThe 21 st Century Colorado River Hot Drought and Implications for the Future
Coauthor: Jonathan Overpeck The 21 st Century Colorado River Hot Drought and Implications for the Future CRWCD State of the River May 4, 2017 Brad Udall Colorado State University Bradley.udall@colostate.edu
More informationAN OVERVIEW OF ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION STUDIES IN KOREA
AN OVERVIEW OF ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION STUDIES IN KOREA DAE-IL JEONG, YOUNG-OH KIM School of Civil, Urban & Geosystems Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul,
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 14, 2017
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 14, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017
Upper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division
More informationWater information system advances American River basin. Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS
Water information system advances American River basin Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS Opportunities Unprecedented level of information from low-cost
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 21, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 21, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationWhat does the El Niño have in store for the Upper Colorado Basin?
What does the 2015-16 El Niño have in store for the Upper Colorado Basin? Klaus Wolter NOAA-Earth System Research Lab & University of Colorado at Boulder-CIRES klaus.wolter@noaa.gov El Niño: Current situation
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin January 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast January 3, 2018
Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Upper Missouri River Basin January 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast January 3, 2018 Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationWater Year 2019 Wet or Dry?? Improving Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting Jeanine Jones, Department of Water Resources
Water Year 2019 Wet or Dry?? Improving Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting Jeanine Jones, Department of Water Resources Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Forecasting Operational
More informationIntegrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations
Integrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations California Extreme Precipitation Symposium September 6, 2016 Brad Moore, PE US Army Corps of Engineers Biography Brad Moore is a Lead Civil
More informationSpeakers: NWS Buffalo Dan Kelly and Sarah Jamison, NERFC Jeane Wallace. NWS Flood Services for the Black River Basin
Speakers: NWS Buffalo Dan Kelly and Sarah Jamison, NERFC Jeane Wallace NWS Flood Services for the Black River Basin National Weather Service Who We Are The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 18, 2018
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 18, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 18, 2017
1 of 11 4/18/2017 3:42 PM Precipitation NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 18, 2017 The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations.
More informationOutline. Precipitation. How would you describe precipitation patterns in your area? Bottom line: one-page summary
Outline Precipitation June 13, 2013 Phoenix, AZ Measuring rainfall Patterns of precipitation in time and space Predicting precipitation Patterns related to extreme events (floods & drought) Paleo-climate
More informationHow Will the Colorado Run? The Colorado River in a Warmer World
How Will the Colorado Run? The Colorado River in a Warmer World The Future of the Colorado River October 13, 2018 Brad Udall Senior Scientist/Scholar Colorado State University Bradley.Udall@colostate.edu
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System January 15, 2019
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System January 15, 2019 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationWyoming Pre-Workshop Survey Results August 27, 2015 Lander Wyoming
Wyoming Pre-Workshop Survey Results August 27, 2015 Lander Wyoming WHAT AREA(S) DO YOU WORK IN?! PLANNING, MGT, OPS! DROUGHT! RESEARCH! PUBLIC LANDS MGT! AG OR RANCHING! RECREATION! ENERGY! 0! 3.5! 7!
More informationInflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments. Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch
Inflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch Inflows Water flowing into hydro storages Usually measured by monitoring the levels and outflows from hydro storages
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 11, 2018
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 11, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationUsing a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado
Using a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado Michael J. Mueller 1, Kelly Mahoney 2, Kathleen Holman 3, David Gochis 4 1 Cooperative
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 16, 2019
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 16, 2019 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationDrought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico
Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico David S. Gutzler University of New Mexico gutzler@unm.edu * The big drought of 2018 * Longer term challenges for water supply * Forecasting streamflow Elephant
More informationPrecipitation. Standardized Precipitation Index. NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System January 3, 2017
1/3/2017 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System January 3, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP,
More informationArizona Drought Monitoring Sensitivity and Verification Analyses Project Results and Future Directions
Arizona Drought Monitoring Sensitivity and Verification Analyses Project Results and Future Directions A Water Sustainability Institute, Technology and Research Initiative Fund Project Christopher L. Castro,
More informationP1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
P1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Andrea J. Ray 1, Joseph J. Barsugli 1,2, and Thomas Hamill 1 1 NOAA Earth Systems
More informationAn Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast Center
National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center An Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System March 26, 2019
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System March 26, 2019 The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right:
More informationThe U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System. Roger S. Pulwarty National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration USA
The U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System Roger S. Pulwarty National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration USA Drought: Weather-climate continuum and adaptation deficits 2010 2011 2012 2015
More informationA Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center, CSU Mike Gillespie Snow Survey Division, USDA, NRCS Presented at the 28 th Annual AGU Hydrology Days, March 26, 2008,
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 13, 2018
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 13, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More informationReservoir Operations (FBO) (FIRO)
A Methodology for Adaptive Water Management Forecast-Based Forecast-Informed Operations Reservoir Operations (FBO) (FIRO) Mike McMahon Senior Hydro-Meteorologist/Climate Science/Resiliency Lead - HDR Engineering
More informationA partnership with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: An experiment in Technology Transfer
A partnership with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: An experiment in Technology Transfer Martyn P. Clark and Subhrendu Gangopadhyay Center for Science and Technology Policy Research David Brandon,
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System October 30, 2018
10/30/2018 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System October 30, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System July 18, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System July 18, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet
More informationWater Supply Conditions and Outlook June 4, 2018
Water Supply Conditions and Outlook June 4, 2018 Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Overview Water supply conditions across Saskatchewan are generally good with most reservoir
More informationWeather Modification Activities in the Colorado River Basin. Mohammed Mahmoud
Weather Modification Activities in the Colorado River Basin Mohammed Mahmoud Historical Information Authorized by 1968 Basin Project Act Substantially completed in 1993 Responsible for repaying reimbursable
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 6, 2018
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 6, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
More information9. PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD
9. PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD 9.1. Introduction Due to the size of Watana Dam and the economic importance of the Project to the Railbelt, the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System September 4, 2018
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System September 4, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
More informationSouris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018
Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Basin Conditions Summer rainfall in 2017 in the Saskatchewan portion
More informationNIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 1, 2018
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 1, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationTracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University
Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Northern Colorado Business Innovations November 20, 2013 Loveland, Colorado
More informationSouris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019
Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Basin Conditions Summer rainfall in 2018 over the Saskatchewan portion
More information2015 Fall Conditions Report
2015 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: December 21 st, 2015 Table of Contents Table of Figures... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 2 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...
More informationPrecipitation. Standardized Precipitation Index. NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System December 6, 2016
12/9/2016 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System December 6, 2016 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP,
More informationUpper Colorado River Basin Flows and Paleohydrology Jenny Ta
Upper Colorado River Basin Flows and Paleohydrology Jenny Ta Introduction The Colorado River flows from its headwaters in the Rocky Mountains, through seven U.S. and two Mexican states into the Colorado
More informationNOAA/WSWC Workshop on Seasonal Forecast Improvements. Kevin Werner, NOAA Jeanine Jones, CA/DWR
NOAA/WSWC Workshop on Seasonal Forecast Improvements Kevin Werner, NOAA Jeanine Jones, CA/DWR Outline Workshop motivation Goals Agenda 2 Workshop Motivation Opportunity for application of improved seasonal
More informationGlobal Flood Awareness System GloFAS
Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS Ervin Zsoter with the help of the whole EFAS/GloFAS team Ervin.Zsoter@ecmwf.int 1 Reading, 8-9 May 2018 What is GloFAS? Global-scale ensemble-based flood forecasting
More informationOctober 16 th, 2012 2010-12 La Niña event reached its biggest peak since the mid-70s in late 2010, followed by a brief excursion to ENSOneutral conditions during mid-2011; it reached a second peak last
More informationUsing Innovative Displays of Hydrologic Ensemble Traces
Upper Colorado River Basin Water Forum November 7, 2018 Communicating Uncertainty and Risk in Water Resources: Using Innovative Displays of Hydrologic Ensemble Traces Richard Koehler, Ph.D. NOAA/NWS, Boulder,
More informationMerced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model
Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model September 05, 2018 Marco Bell, Merced Irrigation District Bibek Joshi, Dewberry Objective Introduce HEC-RTS Benefits of MIDH2O
More informationSensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to Warming
Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to Warming Greg McCabe U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado Dave Wolock U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas The Colorado River Basin Streamgage
More informationAt the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer.
Operational hydrometeorological forecasting activities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Thomas Pagano At the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer. http://scottbridle.com/
More informationUnited States Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
United States Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Saving Lives Through Partnership Lynn Maximuk National Weather Service Director, Central Region Kansas City, Missouri America s s Weather Enterprise: Protecting
More informationMISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT SPRING 2019 PUBLIC MEETINGS
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT SPRING 2019 PUBLIC MEETINGS April 9 11:00 a.m. Fort Peck, MT April 9 6:00 p.m. Bismarck, ND April 10 10:00 a.m. Pierre, SD April 10 4:00 p.m. Sioux City, IA April
More informationDirection and range of change expected in the future
Direction and range of Air Temperature Over the past 30 years, air Across the greater PNW and temperature has been Columbia Basin, an ensemble increasing an average of forecast from ten of the best 0.13
More informationOperator and Modeler Collaboration on Truckee- Carson River Operations Using Ensembles River Ware User Group Meeting Thursday February 1, 2018
Operator and Modeler Collaboration on Truckee- Carson River Operations Using Ensembles River Ware User Group Meeting Thursday February 1, 2018 Caleb Erkman, P.E. PWRE David Wathen Deputy TROA Administrator
More informationMarch 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and Water Supply Forecasts
Natural Resources Conservation Service National Water and Climate Center 101 SW Main Street, Suite 1600 Portland, OR 97204-3224 Date: March 17, 2003 Subject: March 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and
More informationFINAL Report for COMET proposal entitled:
FINAL Report for COMET proposal entitled: Development of an Automatic Calibration Scheme for Colorado River Basin Forecasts UCAR Award No. S04-44691 September, 2005 Terri S. Hogue, Assistant Professor,
More information