SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County
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1 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County 61
2 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County 62
3 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County Pellicer Creek, FL 63
4 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County Pellicer Creek, FL 64
5 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County 65
6 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County 66
7 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County Ponce Inlet, FL 67
8 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County Ponce Inlet, FL 68
9 Initial Results Mesh Development Development of Seamless Topographic and Bathymetric Data Surface Development of ADCIRC Mesh Storm Climatology Validation Storm Selection Validation Comparisons 69
10 Storm Climatology: Storms in Study Area Tropical Storms: Passing within 175 nm of Jacksonville Typically Category 1 or less at landfall 70
11 Storm Climatology: Storms in Study Area (Cont d) Tropical Storms: Passing within 175 nm of Jacksonville Instances of greater than Category 3 storms 71
12 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters Landfalling storms: Central Pressure < 980 mb Category 1 or greater Limited activity in study area 72
13 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters Analysis of important storm parameters (considered random in JPM-OS analysis) Central pressure Radius to maximum winds Forward speed Storm heading Holland s B (shape parameter) 73
14 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Year month day hour Name Latitude NOT NAMED NOT NAMED NOT NAMED NOT NAMED NOT NAMED NOT NAMED KING ABLE HAZEL CONNIE GRACIE DONNA CLEO DORA DAVID DAVID DIANA HUGO ANDREW FRAN BERTHA BONNIE FLOYD FRANCES JEANNE Longitude Central pressure Radius to Maximum Winds Forward Speed (kts) Storm Heading (deg) Holland's B 74
15 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Analysis of other important parameters that influence storm surge Landfall location Tidal conditions 75
16 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Reference set of 12,294 possible storms Executed storms on coarse resolution ADCIRC mesh to evaluate storm surge Reviewed results at selected locations along coast 76
17 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Locations for reference and optimal set comparisons 77
18 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Optimized set of 178 storms Final SWAN+ADCIRC simulations apply storms 78
19 Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) 2%-annualchance event 1%-annualchance event Comparison of reference set and optimal set at specific comparison locations Results indicate optimal set adequately reproduces reference values 79
20 Initial Results Mesh Development Development of Seamless Topographic and Bathymetric Data Surface Development of ADCIRC Mesh Storm Climatology Validation Storm Selection Validation Comparisons 80
21 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events Landfalling, bypassing, exiting storms that passed near study area 81
22 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events Landfalling, bypassing, exiting storms that passed near study area 82
23 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events NOAA stations with water level (WL) data 83
24 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) NOAA National Buoy Data Center (NDBC) stations with wave data 84
25 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Criteria Sorting of Storms 1. Local Landfall 2. Significant WL Difference 3. WL Data Availability (> 3 Stations) 4. Wave Data Availability (2 or more stations) Cleo Dora (5.91 ft) Frances (15) Frances (5) Dora David (5.55 ft) Charley (14) Ophelia (5) David Jeanne (4.22 ft) Jeanne (14) Tammy (5) Chris Tammy (4.07 ft) Ophelia (9) Fay (5) Edouard Fay (3.99 ft) Tammy (9) Jeanne (4) Tammy Frances (3.85 ft) Dennis 99 (8) Edouard (3) Fay Gabrielle (3.82 ft) Edouard (8) Charley (3) Floyd (3.8 ft) Floyd (7) Chris (2) Ophelia (3.04 ft) Irene (7) Dennis99 (2) Abby (2.93 ft) Fay (6) Floyd (2) Irene (2.92 ft) David (5) Irene (2) Bertha (2.62 ft) Bob (2.44 ft) Erin (2.43 ft) Cleo (2.35 ft) Dennis 99 (2.24 ft) 85
26 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Criteria Sorting of Storms 1. Local Landfall 2. Significant WL Difference 3. WL Data Availability (> 3 Stations) 4. Wave Data Availability (2 or more stations) Cleo Dora (5.91 ft) Frances (15) Frances (5) Dora David (5.55 ft) Charley (14) Ophelia (5) David Jeanne (4.22 ft) Jeanne (14) Tammy (5) Chris Tammy (4.07 ft) Ophelia (9) Fay (5) Edouard Fay (3.99 ft) Tammy (9) Jeanne (4) Tammy Frances (3.85 ft) Dennis 99 (8) Edouard (3) Fay Gabrielle (3.82 ft) Edouard (8) Charley (3) Floyd (3.8 ft) Floyd (7) Chris (2) Ophelia (3.04 ft) Irene (7) Dennis99 (2) Abby (2.93 ft) Fay (6) Floyd (2) Irene (2.92 ft) David (5) Irene (2) Bertha (2.62 ft) Bob (2.44 ft) Erin (2.43 ft) Cleo (2.35 ft) Dennis 99 (2.24 ft) 86
27 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Five validation storms selected Hurricane Dora (1964) Hurricane David (1979) Hurricane Frances (2004) Tropical Storm Tammy (2005) Tropical Storm Fay (2008) 87
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