Air Quality Forecasting Activities in the United States

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1 Air Quality Forecasting Activities in the United States NARSTO Executive Assembly May 9-10, 2006 Ottawa, Canada Richard A. Chet Wayland U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

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3 ROLES / RESPONSIBILITIES IN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING AA > Develop and evaluate tools for national/state/local air quality forecasting > Provide operational air quality model simulations and products with national coverage EPA > Maintain current national emissions inventory > Maintain national air quality monitoring databases > Disseminate/interpret national air quality forecast information - AQI and links to public health STATES / LOCALS / TRIBES > Provide state/local emissions data > Provide state/local air quality monitoring data > Provide local air quality forecasts (also private sector may provide forecasts) PUBLIC 3

4 National AQ Prediction Capability: EPA + AA + State/Local Links EPA Data Management Center AA National Center for Environmental Prediction AQ Data from S/L Agencies Data pull _ > Data push > O 3 Movies/ Forecasts Media Commercial Weather Providers Weather Obs EPA Emissions Inventory Predicted Pollutant Concentration Fields City-specific AQI forecasts Public State/Local Air Agencies 4

5 Participants!!! 50 States, 10 Canadian Provinces, NPS, AA, Mexico border States 124 Federal / State / Local / Tribal Agencies Over 325 Forecast Cities!! 100+ Canadian expected >2,000 real-time monitors!!!!! ~1350 Ozone ~ 600 PM2.5 ~ 160 PM10 Meteorological data Other pollutants 5

6 Summary of Parameters for the AIRNow Data Management Center Current Parameters Precursor Gas Parameters Speciation Parameters Meteorological Parameters 6

7 Forecast Tools! AIRNow Program provides multiple tools to State/Local/Tribal forecasters to assist in development of next-day forecasts! AA Forecast guidance! Statistical Forecast tools! FX-Net! HYSPLIT Trajectory tool! Forecast submittal system! Forecast Verification system 7

8 AA-EPA Forecast Guidance 8

9 AA-EPA Forecast Guidance Comparison 9

10 Statistical Tools Mean = average PM concentration in the node SD = standard deviation within the node N = number of cases in the node Mean =7.4 SD=4.9 N=128 WD6A12P < 138.8? Mean =4.7 Mean =10.2 SD=2.2 SD=5.5 N=66 N=62 V00Z925MB_WS < 2.6 m/s? Mean =8.8 Mean =13.5 SD=3.9 SD=7.2 N=44 N=18 V00Z850MB_HE < m? Mean =10.2 Mean =20.0 SD=4.0 SD=8.0 N=12 N=6 WS12A6A < 3.0 m/s? Mean =11.1 SD=5.4 N=82 Mean =11.4 SD=7.6 N=282 Mean =13.1 SD=6.8 N=126 WS6A6P < 1.0 m/s? Mean =14.8 SD=7.8 N=154 V12ZFC_TEMP < -1.1 C? Mean =22.8 SD=7.4 N=28 Mean =16.8 SD=7.7 N=44 Mean =18.7 SD=4.7 N=16 TDIFF850SFC0 < -5.6 C? V12Z700MB_WS < 7.8 m/s? Mean =10.0 Mean =14.1 Mean =15.0 Mean =26.1 SD=4.9 SD=5.5 SD=6.3 SD=7.9 N=61 N=21 N=37 N=7 WD12A6A < 121.7? Mean =12.4 SD=4.4 N=24 Mean =19.8 SD=6.6 N=13 r 2 = Testing results Correct AQI category: 70% Predicted High: 21% Predicted Low: 9% V12Z925MB_WS < 2.1 m/s? Mean =27.8 SD=7.1 N=12 V12Z850MB_RH < 37.0 %? Mean =20.8 Mean =32.7 SD=4.1 SD=3.6 N=5 N=7 10

11 FX-Net Forecast System 11

12 HYSPLIT Trajectory Tool 12 hr. Back Trajectory 6 hr. Forward Trajectory 12

13 Forecast Submittal System 13

14 Forecast Verification 14

15 Forecast Verification Statistics 15

16 Forecast Products Air Quality Forecast Map Weekend National Air Quality Outlook Map AA-EPA Forecast Guidance 16

17 Forecast Dissemination Local air agency websites AIRNow web site National Media Data and Forecasts EnviroFlash Local Media Newspaper Decision Makers and Public Other Media Outlets 17

18 Forecast Impact 2002 Green Gauge Reports by RoperASW Have you ever heard of ozone action days or code orange / code red air quality days? Have ozone action days or code orange / code red air quality days ever caused you to change your daily activities by reducing amount of air pollution (e.g., car pooling, driving less)? Have ozone action days or code orange / code red air quality days ever caused you to change your daily activities by reducing exposure to air pollution (e.g., modifying outdoor exercise / work habits)? Yes Response 52% 37% 46% 18

19 North American Coordination! Technology/Knowledge Transfer! Share forecasting tools, skills, lessons learned! Data Transfer! Incoming data transfer OK! AIRNow Gateway (GEOSS AMI project) will allow better outward data transfer! AQI / AQ Standards! Countries have different standards/aqi; not insurmountable issue, but creates difficulties! Emission Inventory! Improved quality of data key; sharing of EI data across countries needed! New EIS being developed for 2008 EI 19

20 Societal Impact I want to let you know how wonderful this service is. My husband has stage IV lung/brain cancer. It never occurred to me that the air quality could be so dangerous in the winter (I only knew about the cold and dry). Because of your s we were able to plan his appointments and time outside around those bad days. Now, the other interesting part of this is that I have asthma and, truthfully, I haven't been taking very good care of myself. I haven't been taking my meds like I should. During that alert time, I should have increased my inhalers too but forgot. By this past Sunday, I was in a little trouble with my breathing--i actually thought I was coming down with a cold but then I realized your messages were meant for me also. I upped my meds (like I'm supposed to when I'm in trouble) and today I'm much better. I know this is an experimental program--i've got to tell you it worked for me. From now on I'm going to respond to your warnings, not only for my husband but for me too. Thanks for providing this service. -- Kathy Barney 20

NOAA s Air Quality Forecasting Activities. Steve Fine NOAA Air Quality Program

NOAA s Air Quality Forecasting Activities Steve Fine NOAA Air Quality Program Introduction Planned Capabilities Initial: 1-day 1 forecast guidance for ozone Develop and validate in Northeastern US September,