Greater Toronto Area/ Clean Air Council. Air Quality Modeling Pilot Project

Transcription

1 Greater Toronto Area/ Clean Air Council Air Quality Modeling Pilot Project Liveable Peel Conference February 10th, 2006 Anthony Ciccone, Ph.D., P.Eng. Principal Golder Associates Limited 2390 Argentia Road Mississauga, Ontario L5N 5Z7

2 Outline Introduction Why we model? How we are modelling Where we are modelling? What we will get out of the model?

3 Introduction Linkages between air quality and health Ontario s AQ is receiving greater attention Growing concern over general air quality Rising frequency of SMOG alerts Closing down of coal fired power plants Municipalities need to know what steps they can take and in what areas to improve the health of citizens

4 Levels of Government Federal policies are working at a sector level to reduce emissions Provinces are charged with permitting industrial sources and meeting Federal standards Municipal governments can develop air quality management plans

5 Drivers to Improve Air Quality Canada Wide Standards (PM2.5/O3) PM10 and precursors have been declared toxic under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) Underling theme is human health

6 Air Quality & Health Human Health Inhalation Exposure Air Quality Concentrations Atmospheric Process Air Emissions

7 Why do we model? Not enough air quality monitoring stations Peel only has two stations Measures historical changes in air quality Stations do not measure everything Find the best location for monitoring stations

8 Why do we model? Planning Ahead Avoid expenditures for poor designs Allows to defer expenditures when there is not an immediate need

9 Why do we model? Look into the future - Modelling allows us to answer those what if questions Increased capacity of roads New roadway make sense Cogeneration

10 Why Build New Roads?

11 The Modelling Process Emissions CALMET Predicted Wind Direction Frequency Wind Direction Frequency - ABTP OnSite 1996 N NNW 12% NNE 10% NW NE 8% 6% WNW ENE 4% 2% W 0% E WSW ESE SW SE SSW SSE S CALMET Predicted Wind S peed (m/s) by Direction N NNW 20 NNE NW 15 NE 10 WNW ENE 5 N 16% NNW NNE 14% NW 12% NE 10% 8% WNW 6% ENE 4% 2% W 0% E WSW ESE SW SE SSW SSE S Wind S peed (m/s) by Direction - ABTP OnS ite N NNW 20 NNE NW 15 NE 10 WNW ENE 5 Meteorology The Model Concentrations W 0 E W 0 E WSW ESE WSW ESE SW SE SW SSW SSE SE SSW SSE S S Average Maximum Average Maximum Receptors

12 Existing Toronto Air Quality Modelling System Based on CALPUFF/CALMET models CALMET meteorological data CALPUFF takes meteorological and emission data to determine ambient concentrations. AirTool Estimates emissions spatially using ArcGIS.

13 City of Toronto - Data Summary Meteorological Data Receptors Nested grid 2 & 1 km Emission Data Point Reg127/NPRI for large emitters Area Developed AirTool based on MPAC property assessment Mobile Based on road network and level of traffic or forecast data.

14 Meteorological Stations BUT N TOR ISA Northing (m) LkOnt Meteorlogical Station Toronto Prov. Freeway HAM STC BUF Met Stations Easting (m) Meteorological Station Locations Created by: LAB Figure: Scale: 1 : City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario NAD 83 UTM Date Created: May 12, 2004 AQIB

15 Nested Domains (Meteorological, Computational & Receptor) BUT N TOR ISA Northing (m) LkOnt Meteorlogical Station Toronto Prov. Freeway HAM STC Meteorological Domain Computational Domain Receptor Domain BUF Met Stations Easting (m) Meteorological Station Locations Created by: LAB Figure: Scale: 1 : City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario NAD 83 UTM Date Created: May 12, 2004 AQIB

16 Nitrogen Oxides Concentrations 1 hr Predicted Levels 24 hr Predicted Levels N N Northing (m) Northing (m) AAQC AAQC Monitoring Station Monitoring Station Toronto Toronto Major Arterial Major Arterial Easting (m) Highways & Ramps Easting (m) Highways & Ramps NO 1 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 1 Hour Average Concentration ( µ g/m ) Created by: LAB 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 400 µ g/m Scale: City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Date Created: NAD 83 UTM Figure: 1 : May 11, 2004 AQIB NO 24 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 24 Hour Average Concentration ( µ g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 200 µ g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: 1 : May 11, 2004 AQIB

17 Pilot Project Expanding Domain Data Needs MPAC Information Traffic volume count Population count Information available from planning department What we have Meteorological Processing Programs Geographic Information AirTool Knowledge What Municipalities get Air quality at a street level resolution. Suitable for exposure and health estimates Capability to look at future What if Scenarios including Places to Grow

18 Phase One Started on the Phase 1 Expanded the computational domain Retrieving more detailed terrain data Expand the use of AirTool for forecasting Preparing the Base Case Scenario

19 Final Thought! If an activity pollutes, you must either do less of it, or make it cleaner to do. Gunnar Eskeland, World Bank