US National Fire Danger Rating System: Past, Present and Future
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1 US National Fire Danger System: Past, Present and Future Dr. W. Matt Jolly US Forest Service, Fire Sciences Laboratory Missoula, MT 17/09/2008 NWCG IRMWT 1
2 Outline Introduction to the US National Fire Danger System Decision making and breakpoints Future directions of NFDRS in United States
3 Introduction to the US NFDRS First National System in 1972, Updated in 1978 and Modified in 1988 Point-based Based on ~2200 Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) nationwide All manager have control over their own stations Assumed to represent a broad area Indices are calculated and applied to a Danger area Point values are interpolated to create spatial maps and distributed on the Wildland Fire Assessment System
4
5 General Flow of Weather Observations Afternoon Wx (1300 LST) NFDRS Processor Observed Indices WIMS NIFMID Forecaster Applications FireFamily Plus
6 Simplified US NFDRS Flow Chart Site Information (Fuels and Topography) Daily Weather Data (RAWS) Previous Day s Fuel Moistures Fire Danger Estimates Live and Dead Fuel Moistures NFDRS Components and Indices Weather Fuel Topography Fire Environment Triangle
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8 Alaska, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Use the CFFDRS
9 Uses of Fire Danger Fire Danger Signs Public Land Closures and Burning Restrictions Logging operations limited Dispatch and Staffing levels Pre-positioning resources Situational awareness for firefighter safety Wildland Fire Use Decisions
10 Decision Points Climatological Breakpoints Compare current values to historical values Fire Business Thresholds Compare historical fire danger values to fire occurrence Local managers decide the number and value of decision points using FireFamily Plus
11 FireFamily Plus Analysis Tools Examines historical fire danger climatology Determines breakpoints Also calculates the CFFWI Indices Variable season start-up and initialization Imports generic weather and fire occurrence data to calculate indices
12 The Gridded Fire Danger System Operational Gridded Products (WFAS) National Digital Forecast Database Spatial Fire Danger Estimates Standardized / Relative Indices Historical Gridded Climatology
13 National Digital Forecast Database National Weather Service operational gridded forecasts Updated at least twice daily Moderate resolution 5 Km being downscaled to 2.5 Km Three to six hour forecasts Entire CONUS coverage Alaska is also currently in experimental stage
14 Seven Day Fire Danger Forecast
15 Fire Danger Climatology using the North American Regional Reanalysis 32 km resolution for North America Three hourly data Includes all variables to calculate the US NFDRS Full dataset is ~4 TB
16 Example ERCg Grid
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18 Comparison of ERC and Relative ERC for Flagstaff, AZ ERCg Relative ERCg Yearday Flagstaff ERC Flagstaff Relative ERC
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20 Standardized NFDRS Forecast 17/09/2008 NWCG IRMWT 20
21 Based on climatological daily mean and standard deviation
22 Future Enhancements Revisit the current NFDRS structure and simplify the system Radiation-driven driven dead fuel moisture model New live fuel moisture model Initialize forecasts with gridded surface weather observations
23 Questions? 17/09/2008 NWCG IRMWT 23
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