Using the environmental lapse rate (ELR) to forecast wildfire blow-ups

Transcription

1 Using the environmental lapse rate (ELR) to forecast wildfire blow-ups 2015 Project Update Greg Baxter

2 Background Goal: To improve firefighter safety Objectives: Determine if the AIMMS sensor provides data to reliably calculate the ELR. Determine if data collected can identify potential blow-up fire conditions. 2

3 Background 2009 Kamloops weather stations on a slope 2013 Forest Protection Limited 2014 advisory meeting discussions 3

4 Background 2015 Fall Meeting Obtain existing data from wildfire and spray operations and look for super adiabatic lapse rate conditions. Collect data over wildfires and correlate to fire behaviour (McClure and Strawberry Fires 2003) Determine the characteristics that lead to superadiabatic conditions (literature review) 4

5 2015 Update Posted literature review on the website Talked to Rick Lanoville in Jan 2015 (Kamloops) Plotted flight data on Google Earth. Any spray data super-adiabatic? In Feb 2015: Conair and Kamloops Fire Center 5

6 Current State of Knowledge (2011) 6

7 Knowledge Gaps Identified by USDA 1. A greater recognition of the importance of plume dynamics to extreme fire behaviour and spotting. 2. Better high-resolution observations on wind flow in complex terrain to improve wind models used in fire behavior and spotting tools, and to identify fire whirl potential. For example, upper air soundings on project-size fires. 3. More research beyond the Haines Index to quantify the effects of atmospheric stability on fire behavior. 7

8 Knowledge Gaps Webinar put on by the Lessons Learned Centre discussing critical fire weather (Feb 2015) acknowledged that environmental stability and its influence on fire behaviour requires more study. Haines Index a broad measure of stability. 8

9 What the Literature Says Key influences on fire behaviour: very low RH% atmospheric stability; lapse rates New and expanded research into these areas will increase the understanding of the science on which they are based. This is a necessary starting point for enhanced wildland fire management and advances in firefighter training and safety. 9

10 Data from Forest Protection Limited (FPL) video 10

11 Kamloops Fire Center Daily process during fire season. How it works: Collect 08:00 atmospheric sounding from Kelowna Observe 700 mb temperature from sounding Compare temperature at higher-elevation Wx stations to the 700 mb temperature to derive a lapse rate Typically lapse rate is 4 5 o C/1000 m; alarm bells ring when 10 o C (extreme instability) 11

12 Kamloops Fires 2014 July 14, 2014: High-elevation fire. Crowning occurred while patches of snow still on the ground. RH% above 2000 m was very low (said to be as low as 2%). This was a deep layer of very dry air. The following chart shows a steep lapse rate and dry air. 12

13 Kamloops Fires 2014 July 14,

14 2003 Fires July 29 (super-adiabatic) McClure Strawberry Hill Kelowna 14

15 Steering Committee Role Provide perspective as needed Members: Gerry Cormier (Forest Protection Limited) Rick Lanoville (BC Jeff Berry (Conair Aviation) Bruce Woodcock (Aventech) Alberta ESRD 15

16 Next Steps Option 1 Run a test program with one aircraft out of the Kamloops Fire Centre Compare sensor data to fire behaviour. 16

17 Next Steps Option 1 (continued) Why Kamloops? Rick L. is calculating lapse rates and observing RH% each morning for the duty officer Currently using the predictions for dispatch Only location actively implementing approach Kamloops Fire Center is receptive to the project Area generally experiences fires 17

18 Next Steps Option 2 Work with FPL and use spray, and possibly fire, data for 2015 to complete further analysis. 18

19 Next Steps Option 3 Work with Kamloops Fire Center to write a report on local fire behaviour when the predicted daily atmospheric stability and dryness resulted in extreme fire behaviour. 19

20 Questions to Answer Is the bird dog the right airplane? Or is the air tanker better? Is the common mission profile enough data to establish lapse rate? Is there a correlation between sensor data and fire activity? Can sensor data augment daily predicted fire activity? 20

21 Questions to Answer Is the sensor able to accurately measure relative humidity when it is less than 22%? Who is this information most useful to? Air attack officer or duty officer? 21

22 Which option?? 22

23 Future Share the results at the 2016 Spring Advisory Meeting Based on advisory members direction, identify future research requirements if any 23

24 Questions?