Progress of the Aviation Research Demonstration Project (AvRDP)

Transcription

1 Progress of the Aviation Research Demonstration Project (AvRDP) Peter PW Li NMRWG, member CAeM, ET/ASC, Core member Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China WMO, Geneva, Switzerland 25 November 2015

2 Objectives A joint effort between WWRP and CAeM (may involve CBS in Phase II), in the next 4 years ( ): to conduct research and development in nowcasting and mesoscale modelling at several international airports located in Northern and Southern Hemisphere with a view to supporting the development of the next generation aviation initiative, namely, the Aviation System Block Upgrade (ASBU), under the new Global Aviation Navigation Plan (GANP) endorsed by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2013; to collaborate with the respective Air Traffic Management (ATM) to demonstrate the benefits of the MET information (nowcast and mesoscale modelling) to the aviation community; to transfer the knowledge gained in AvRDP to other WMO Members who need to enhance their aviation MET services to meet ASBU. Initially, six airports participate in AvRDP: CDG (Paris), HKG (Hong Kong, China), JNB (Johannesburg), SHA (Shanghai), YYZ (Toronto) and YFB (Iqaluit). 2

3 WMO Congress XVII Aviation meteorological services: One of the 6 priorities in Improve the ability of national meteorological services to provide sustainable high quality services to support safety, efficiency and regularity of the air transport worldwide, with due account to environmental factors. Congress noted with interest the development of a joint CAeM/CAS/CBS Aviation Research Demonstration Project (AvRDP), with a view to demonstrate the capability of nowcasting and mesoscale modelling techniques in support of so called trajectory based operations (TBO), with a planned fast track transfer of the research results into operational applications facilitated through a forecast demonstration phase

4 Trajectory Based Operation (TBO) Transition from nowcasting scale -> mesoscale -> global scale -> mesoscale -> nowcasting scale Mesoscale / Global modelling Nowcasting Terminal Control Area: Location specific Nowcasting En Route Phase: Mainly supported by global/regional Multi model Aviation Weather Forecast Centre (AWFC) Terminal Control Area: Location specific

5 Meteorological Service for the Terminal Area (MSTA) airport This is the area needs 0 6 hr nowcast The closer to the airport, the high resolution meteorological information will be required. Different airports will have different requirements * Nowcast or nowcasting hereafter refers to all techniques/systems including observation-based, expert system-based, human-machine interfaced and meso/microscale NWP or any combination thereof which can generate high resolution, rapidly updated forecasts for the next 0-6hr ahead

6 CAeM/ICAO Conjoint Meeting 7 18 July 2014, Montreal, CA 6

7 Kickoff meeting cum CBS Nowcasting Workshop (24 26 June 2015, Shanghai, China) 7

8 Kickoff meeting reviewed and refined the science plan, the implementation plan, adopted the membership of the AvRDP Science Steering Committee (SSC), discussed on data policy and other relevant issues. Phase I MET capability research (May 2015 July 2017), focusing on MET research and development. Phase II MET ATM impact translation and validation (Jul 2016 Jun 2018), focusing on translating MET information into ATM impact and demonstrate the benefit to aviation community. Airports which start the Intense Observation Period (IOP) in late 2015 or later may choose to enter Phase II in late

9 AvRDP Website ( Website and sftp Data server (for data exchange) 9

10 Data Policy (to be finalized) 10

11 Implementation Plan (adopted by SSC Jun 2015) 11

12 AvRDP SSC Name Peter Li, Chair Estelle de CONING Janti REID Jean Louis BRENGUIER Fengyun WANG Sharon LAU Peter M. CHADWICK Baode CHEN Cecilia MINER Stefane BELAIR Paul JOE Marion MITTERMAIER Dennis HART Representation HKO rep of CAeM SAWS rep of JNB EC rep of YYZ & YFB MeteoFrance rep of CDG CAAC rep of SHA HKO rep of HKG CAD rep of HKG (ATM expert) SMB rep of CMA NOAA rep of NextGen EC rep of NMRWG EC rep of NMRWG UKMO rep of JWGFVR EuroControl rep of SESAR (will participate in Phase II) * The need of a co-chair in Phase II to be determined later 12

13 HKG 1st IOP for Convection in Northern Hemisphere (mid May mid Sep 15) HKO IOP Data and Data Manual (v.0) A number of significant convection cases A few typhoon cases Observational data Nowcasting data Mesoscale model data NWC + NWP blended data ATM data Airport Capacity data 13

14 HKG Nowcasting, NWP Model and Forecast Hourly Airport Arrival Rate Capacity forecast for AAR RAPIDS NHM TAF SIGMET RAPIDS Significant Convection Forecast Multi Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (MSQ) Observations Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (ATNS) Doppler Weather Radar Wind profiler Anemometer Automatic Weather Station AMDAR data METAR SYNOP SHIP Sounding Lightning HKG IOP Data summary ATM data

15 Observational Data collected RADAR SYNOP METAR Sounding Local AWS AMDAR Lightning Wind profiler

16 Nowcasting / Model / ATM data collected ATNS MSQ NHM SIGCONV and Capacity Notification RAPIDS

17 On going 1st IOP for winter weather, visibility and ceiling for airports in Northern Hemisphere will start soon (CDG, YYZ, YFB) 2nd IOP for convective weather for Southern Hemisphere will start soon (JNB), including setting up radar based nowcasting system HKG: Apart from MET data, a few kinds of ATM data have been collected for studying the benefits of the nowcasting information to ATM; HKO will transfer the radar based nowcasting system com SWIRLS to JNB and SHA for their setting up of their nowcasting systems for their airports. 17

18 On going (cont ) SHA: Have started selecting cases and collecting MET/ATM data for convective and low visibility and ceiling cases (May 2015 Jul 2017); Started to work on radar mosaic extrapolation and mesoscale model rapid refresh (Oct 2015 Jul 2017) CAAC/MET unit will collaborate with SMB (Shanghai Meteorological Bureau) and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) to further develop nowcasting and high resolution mesoscale modelling system for AvRDP starting in Dec 2015 CAAC/MET unit Collaborating with ATM/ATC units actively to develop CDM Support Tools. The study aims at how to translate MET data (including METAR,SPECI, TAF, Radar, Satellite,NWO, etc.) into ATM/ATC operation & capacity assessment 18

19 On going (cont ) CDG: Preparing for the 1st IOP for winter weather in Northern Hemisphere JNB: Collaborating with HKO to adopt a radar based nowcasting system for convection over JNB in Dec 2015 To conduct 1st IOP for convective weather (Nov 2015 Mar 2016); Contacting aviation clients on possible collaboration to provide better MET information for better decision making and raise awareness of the project with ATM clients 19

20 On going (Cont ) YYZ: Preparing for 1st IOP for winter weather especially on setting up many MET instruments at or surrounding the airport Preparing nowcasting products including: Aviation Conditional Climatology, Integrated Weighted Nowcasting, CARDS Point Nowcasting, HRDS 2.5km model and RDPS 10km model outputs YFB: Preparing for the 2nd IOP for winter weather ( ) 20

21 Next Year Planning Conduct 1st IOP for convective weather at JNB; Conduct 1st IOP for winter weather at CDG, YYZ and start 2nd IOP for winter weather at YFB; Conduct 3rd IOP for convective weather at CDG, HKG and SHA; Conduct 2nd IOP for winter weather, visibility at ceiling CDG, YYZ, YFB; Conduct 2nd IOP for convective weather at JNB; 21

22 Next Year Planning (cont ) Preliminary research results to be presented in the 4th International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very short range Forecast in Jul 2016 (WSN16) Organize an AvRDP Training Workshop on aviation nowcasting and very short range forecasting techniques back to back with WSN16 for WMO Members aviation meteorological personnel; Begin to establish matrix for verification of aviation MET products; Further discussion with ATM expertise on translation MET information into ATM impact products as well as methods of validation. 22

23 Meetings to come MeetingAvRDP When & Where Aviation RDP Training July 2016 Workshop Hong Kong, China WSN16 AvRDP SSC Meeting AvRDP SSC Concluding Meeting for Phase I Who Invited experts July 2016 Hong Kong, China July 2016 NMRWG July 2017 TBD AvRDP SSC AvRDP SSC 23

24 Connection with other WGs, Projects Collaborate with JWGFVR to develop verification & validation methodologies for AvRDP; Collaborate with NMRWG, PDEFWG, DOAWG to explore the possibilities of developing enhanced probabilistic MSTA products under AvRDP; Collaborate with ATM (HK Civil Aviation Department, SESAR and CAAC) on how to demonstrate the benefits for the aviation community Keep in view other on going aviation initiatives: SESAR, NextGen Collaborate with CAeM ET/ASC (Aviation Science and Climate) 24

25 CAeM ET/ASC 1st meeting: March

26 Thank You for Your Support Questions? 26

27 New Era of Aviation Industry Aeronautical meteorology is entering into an era of rapid and fundamental changes, in response to the continuous growth of aviation transport and the need of new concepts for Air Traffic Management (ATM). The ASBU methodology aims at safe, sustained growth, increased efficiency and responsible environmental stewardship. WMO Congress XVI recognized that these changes could pose significant challenges to WMO Members, as well as provide new opportunities. 27

28 HKG IOP Data summary Observational Data Surface METAR SYNOP SHIP Half hourly weather report of aerodromes. Three hourly WMO standard weather reports. Three hourly reports from observation marine vessels. Automatic weather station Wind data recorded at 1 min intervals. A limited HKT number of stations also provide temperature, humidity, and pressure data. Upper air Sounding AMDAR UTC UTC UTC Reports of twice daily WMO standard weather UTC balloons. Automatic weather reports from inflight aircraft. UTC Remote sensing Lightning Time, positional and type (CG/CC) of strike. UTC Reflectivity factor in volumetric scan at 6 min intervals. HKT Radar Wind profiler Upper air wind data at 10 min interval with vertical HKT resolution of about 100m.

29 HKG IOP Data summary Forecast Data Text based forecast TAF ICAO standard weather forecast for the aerodrome. UTC SIGMET (TS) ICAO standard warning product for thunderstorm UTC within the FIR, valid for 4 hours at most. NWP gridded output NHM Refresh rate of 3 hours degree resolution UTC covering N, E. Output at hourly interval up to 15hr. Forecast element includes simulated radar reflectivity.

30 HKG IOP Data summary Nowcast and Blending Data Gridded output Forecast of radar reflectivity factor within 256km HKT ATNS of HK at 6 min intervals for the next 60 min. Refresh rate at 6 min. MSQ Hourly forecast rainfall rate over an area of HKT around 500km within HK for the next 9 hours. Refresh rate at 6 min. Gridded output Forecast of hourly rainfall rate at hourly intervals for HKT RAPIDS the next 6 hours, roughly covering 128km radar range. Refresh rate at 6 min. Textual output SIGCONV Significant convection forecast time series for the UTC aerodrome and key holding areas at hourly interval for the next 6 hours. Automatic output but allowed for human intervention. Refresh rate at 12 min.

31 HKG IOP Data summary ATM Data Air traffic information Airport Number of aircraft scheduled to land hourly, and the HKT arrival rate number of aircraft actually landed in that hour. (AAR) Capacity forecast AAR Estimated AAR for the next few hours. Twice daily UTC estimated by and update as necessary. ATM unit