Advances in Weather Technology

Transcription

1 Advances in Weather Technology Dr. G. Brant Foote National Center for Atmospheric Research 16 May 2001 NCAR

2 Research Results in Aviation Weather Built on the foundation of the nation s long-standing investment in atmospheric research (NSF, NOAA, NASA) Greatly accelerated in the past decade by the FAA s funding of highly focussed R&D In the last few years NASA has been a significant partner in the focused effort

3 Thunderstorm Forecasting State of the Science Accurate one-hour forecast technology is available Two-hour forecasts are feasible within a couple of years Accurate forecasts beyond two hours will continue to be elusive in the foreseeable future National Convective Weather Forecast Auto-Nowcast System Terminal Convective Weather Forecast Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

4 Thunderstorm Forecasting Example of delay reduction benefit: $500M in addition to the $600M estimated for ITWS (extending forecast period from 20 min to 60 min) TCWF NCWF A-N Terminal Convective Weather Forecast Plans for the NY-Chicago corridor: Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Regional Convective Weather Forecast (RCWF) Thunderstorm Operational Research Project (THOR)

5 Turbulence State of the Science Useful forecast technology for upper-level clear-air turbulence is available Automatic aircraft measurement and downlink of turbulence encountered is transitioning to the airlines Improved on-board radar sensing of turbulence in the vicinity of thunderstorms will soon be available Terrain-induced turbulence detection near problem airports has been shown to be feasible Considerable additional research remains in forecasting thunderstorm turbulence and low-level clear-air turbulence R and D Technology Integrated Turbulence Forecast Algorithm Automated aircraft reporting of encountered events On-board radar Hong Kong Windshear/ Turbulence System

6 Icing Aloft State of the Science A useful 3-D diagnosis of current icing areas is available now A 3-D 6-hour icing forecast product will soon be available Remote sensing of icing from the ground, satellite, and aircraft is still in its infancy R and D Technology Integrated Icing Diagnosis Algorithm (cross-section) Integrated Icing Forecast Algorithm (plan view) Radar Remote Sensing of Icing (cross-section)

7 Snowfall and Ground Deicing State of the Science An accurate 30-minute forecast system for quantitative snowfall amounts (mass of snow) is available now commercially Current research will provide a product that gives a good 2-hour forecast within a few years R and D Technology Weather Support for Deicing Decision Making (WSDDM) 2-hour Forecast of Snowfall

8 Ceiling and Visibility State of the Science A system to provide accurate forecasts of morning low cloud burnoff at San Francisco is ready for application A national-scale diagnosis and forecast product is being tested and will be ready for initial operational use within a few years Highly accurate forecasts for specific airports is a difficult research problem with many years of work needed R and D Technology San Francisco Stratus Problem National-Scale System

9 Oceanic Weather State of the Science A satellite-based thunderstorm detection product is currently being tested and will soon be available for deployment Within a few years, a one-hour thunderstorm forecast product will be available Other oceanic products such as thunderstorm turbulence, clearair turbulence, and icing are several years away R and D Technology Oceanic Convective Nowcasting System

10 Internet Dissemination of Improved Weather Information State of the Science The Aviation Digital Data Service is available to all users as an experimental method for providing improved weather information Once the FAA s Internet Policy is finalized, this data service will have the experimental label removed R and D Technology Aviation Digital Data Service Front Page Aviation Digital Data Service Flight Path Tool adds.awc-kc.noaa.gov

11 Cockpit Dissemination of Improved Weather Information State of the Science NASA Advanced Weather Information (AWIN) program has accelerated the development of commercial cockpit systems employing new display and product technology FAA s Flight Information Services Data Link Program is working with vendors to put in place a capability for General Aviation to receive basic weather information in the cockpit New graphic products for thunderstorms, turbulence, icing, ceiling, visibility, and oceanic weather will eventually be inserted into these cockpit systems R and D Technology Honeywell AWIN Display ARNAV General Aviation Display

12 Priorities for Funding? These depend on the - Purpose of the weather product - The specific benefit sought

13 Priorities for Funding - an example Funding Area Purpose/Benefit 1-2 hour thunderstorm forecasting Safely reduce summer delays Specific Priorities Research Implementation Extend TCWF and NCWF to two hours (CIWS and RCWF) Demonstrate forecasts of storm initiation, growth, and decay in THOR program Continue to encourage funding for the difficult 2-6 hr forecast problem from basic research sources (e.g., NSF) Implement TCWF at all ITWS sites Implement NCWF at AWC to feed FAA s WARP and ADDS Make TCWF and NCWF available to FAA facilities and airlines through CDM-net and ETMS

14 Priorities for Funding Funding Area Purpose/Benefit One to two-hour Thunderstorm Forecasting Safely reduce summer delays Turbulence Forecasting Reduce airline injuries Icing Aloft Forecasting Improve safety of regional airlines Snowfall and Ground Deicing Weather Improve winter airport capacity Ceiling and Visibility Forecasting Reduce fatal accidents; better utilize airport capacity Oceanic Weather Information Safely improve utilization of oceanic routes Aviation Digital Data Service Improve safety, efficiency, and capacity through better preflight information Advanced Weather Information (AWIN) Improve safety, efficiency, and capacity through and Flight Information Services better in-flight information Data Link (FISDL)

15 Priorities for Funding Funding Area Purpose/Benefit One to two-hour Thunderstorm Forecasting Safely reduce summer delays Turbulence Forecasting Reduce airline injuries Icing Aloft Forecasting Improve safety of regional airlines Snowfall and Ground Deicing Weather Improve Winter airport capacity Ceiling and Visibility Forecasting Reduce fatal accidents; better utilize airport capacity Oceanic Weather Information Safely improve utilization of oceanic routes Aviation Digital Data Service Improve safety through better preflight information Advanced Weather Information (AWIN) Improve safety through better in-flight information and Flight Information Services Data Link (FISDL) Transfer of R and D to Operations To realize all preceding benefits

16 Moving Research and Development to Operations State of the Effort There is a considerable body of improved capability available as a result of research sponsored by FAA and NASA The internet and commercial vendors of cockpit equipment provide the technology base to make new product delivery possible

17 Moving Research and Development to Operations The Challenge: Expedite the integration of these capabilities into the system (FAA and NWS responsibilities) Agency acceptance Official blessing on new products New procedures for using products ATM Flight Standards Produce products reliably in an operational setting Use of products by end-users How to integrate information into decision process For more information contact: Dr. Brant Foote